Shell makes its investment plans "inside a $50-$90 range for oil", the Telegraph reports, and reckons $80-$100 over the next 4 years, with lots of volatility.
The volatility, I buy: and there's no harm in planning on a conservative basis. Otherwise, they must have either a very pessimistic view on the world economy, or lots of optimism on production - which as regards oil means Iraq.
I'm pretty pessimistic on the economy myself, and as noted before the Baltic Dry freight index is collapsing. And it is fair to note that, Arab Spring notwithstanding, the producing nations often work hard to keep the valves open - see this commendable story of how Yemen kept the LNG flowing through a fairly tough 2011 (and aren't the Japanese & Koreans grateful).
But as regards oil, although there is indeed still plenty that costs less than $70 to produce, the newer big finds (e.g. in Brazil) are more costly. It is Iraq where the vastest, easiest reserves are awaiting development: and they seem to be about to award themselves a civil war. As Iran showed in the early 1980's, a perfectly sound oil industry can go to wrack and ruin when eyes are not on the ball.
I'd say it's the gas price that looks the softer. Recession is very bad for industrial gas demand, as 2009 showed. But LNG production capacity is surging and mothballed LNG carriers are being brought back into service. Huge Australian projects are coming onstream to join the Qatari production which, coupled with US shale, took the post-Fukushima increase in Japanese gas demand in its stride. Of course, ME turmoil might be lethal for Qatar, so complacency would be unwise.
It's a commonplace observation that the dynamics of gas and oil have gone separate ways in recent years. You don't typically see such big increments of additional production in the oil sector as you do with LNG projects. And we are just reaching the point where the price of oil (Brent, not the meaningless WTI) will have been in 3 figures for a full year.
So - gas soft, oil firm. I reckon it stays that way for a while yet.