Friday, 6 April 2012
Easter 2012 Political View
Most political commentary is left on this blog to our resident psuedo-MP, Bill Quango, However, with the Budget now digested and Political positions taken for the year, then it is worth reviewing where UK Politics is headed.
Firstly, the Government. It's had a terrible few weeks, suffering from both poor strategic decision making and poor PR management. Worryingly, the top tow Tories have made the worst mistakes and Nick Clegg is clearly getting desperate. The Coalition will held, but it is pretty badly damaged - a long time since the Rose Garden in 2010.
As parties, the Tories are hamstrung by their Liberal Democrat partners and the Tory Wet leadership. There are some game-changing policies, such as an EU referendum that could remedy the situation. However, the wets prefer to tack left and generate coverage by allowing gay marriage. The budget too was a good policy mix given the box is so empty. The biggest overall mistake though was to talk up the cuts when there were none, now they are starting to bite, people are bored of the reasoning.
C- for performance. At the moment there is no chance at all the Tories will make it to biggest party in the next General Election.
As for the Liberal Democrats, the party is still asunder from its decision to go into Government It proved a fatal mistake for a protest party and nearly 50% of its floating voters are gone for good. With a left-wing membership and right wing leadership this party too has multiple internal problems. Enjoy Government if you are a Lib Dem MP, for what comes next is going to be very painful. The only positives is that allied with the Tory wet leadership, the Lib Dems actually have a big influence on Government policy - sadly these ideas are all vote losers so although it helps the activist base, it does nothing for wider popularity.
Labour, as the sole opposition have an easier time of it. However, their catastrophic previous administration will haunt them for as long as benches in Parliament are full of the refugees from the past. Worse, they elected the wrong Milliband who neither looks nor acts like a leader of men. At least they have latched onto populism of opposing all cuts and not trying to define their fantasist fiscal position - the luxury of opposition. This has finally seen then build a strong lead in the polls. It is very hard to see them not winning the next election inspite of Ed Milliband or at the very least ending up the largest party.
Finally of course there is the rest of them. The SNP have probably had their high tide, but Respect and others will always do well in such straightened economic times when a pure lie about economic reality will so fervently want to be believed by the voters. How will this play in the next election, well with larger constituencies now in process non-mainstream parties have seen the barrier to entry increased, so on balance though their votes may increase, their participation will be up only slightly. The main issue is the collapse of the Lib Dems as a protest party in the North of England, this may allow respect and other extreme parties and eventual foothold.
The rest of the year will again be dominated by the euro crisis as it deepens or a Middle East war if that kicks off. In some ways this is a positive for the Blues as this is Labour's weakspot as it reminds people of past poor decisions in both arenas.