Friday 6 April 2012

Easter 2012 Political View

I do hope everyone has had a good day and is of visiting friends and family as opposed to IKEA and B&Q. A 3 hour traffic jam on the M25 was a bit of a downer personally!

Most political commentary is left on this blog to our resident psuedo-MP, Bill Quango, However, with the Budget now digested and Political positions taken for the year, then it is worth reviewing where UK Politics is headed.

Firstly, the Government. It's had a terrible few weeks, suffering from both poor strategic decision making and poor PR management. Worryingly, the top tow Tories have made the worst mistakes and Nick Clegg is clearly getting desperate. The Coalition will held, but it is pretty badly damaged - a long time since the Rose Garden in 2010.

As parties, the Tories are hamstrung by their Liberal Democrat partners and the Tory Wet leadership. There are some game-changing policies, such as an EU referendum that could remedy the situation. However, the wets prefer to tack left and generate coverage by allowing gay marriage. The budget too was a good policy mix given the box is so empty. The biggest overall mistake though was to talk up the cuts when there were none, now they are starting to bite, people are bored of the reasoning.

C- for performance. At the moment there is no chance at all the Tories will make it to biggest party in the next General Election.

As for the Liberal Democrats, the party is still asunder from its decision to go into Government It proved a fatal mistake for a protest party and nearly 50% of its floating voters are gone for good. With a left-wing membership and right wing leadership this party too has multiple internal problems. Enjoy Government if you are a Lib Dem MP, for what comes next is going to be very painful. The only positives is that allied with the Tory wet leadership, the Lib Dems actually have a big influence on Government policy - sadly these ideas are all vote losers so although it helps the activist base, it does nothing for wider popularity.


Labour, as the sole opposition have an easier time of it. However, their catastrophic previous administration will haunt them for as long as benches in Parliament are full of the refugees from the past. Worse, they elected the wrong Milliband who neither looks nor acts like a leader of men. At least they have latched onto populism of opposing all cuts and not trying to define their fantasist fiscal position - the luxury of opposition. This has finally seen then build a strong lead in the polls. It is very hard to see them not winning the next election inspite of Ed Milliband or at the very least ending up the largest party.


Finally of course there is the rest of them. The SNP have probably had their high tide, but Respect and others will always do well in such straightened economic times when a pure lie about economic reality will so fervently want to be believed by the voters. How will this play in the next election, well with larger constituencies now in process non-mainstream parties have seen the barrier to entry increased, so on balance though their votes may increase, their participation will be up only slightly. The main issue is the collapse of the Lib Dems as a protest party in the North of England, this may allow respect and other extreme parties and eventual foothold.

The rest of the year will again be dominated by the euro crisis as it deepens or a Middle East war if that kicks off. In some ways this is a positive for the Blues as this is Labour's weakspot as it reminds people of past poor decisions in both arenas.


Philipa said...

Yes thank you, great night last night celebrating passover and very moving service today marking what Easter is all about - the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. Looking forward to Sunday and celebrating the resurrection. Sorry to hear about the traffic jam. As for the political landscape today, do you notice any similarities ?

Dick the Prick said...

You have to wonder what the Tories are up to, almost as if they're trying to fuck up. So many own goals have forced the coalition into a death spiral through health, diploc courts, tax at 45% rather than either 50 or 40% et bloody cetera. It's all very well the Lib Dems haemorriging votes as it was quite hard identifying their base as anything other than protest but Cameron's pissing on his base for absolutely fuck all profit - it's infantile madness.

I'm a little bit more philosophical regards the next election as I can't read jock politics with any antennae but i'd be voting SNP just for kicks. And Milliband, ah Milliband, well, it's just baffling. The sooner Cooper gets the gig, the better. I am a committed Tory but Milliband just seems like a piss take which demeans civic service almost but I guess the Libs killed Ming for Clegg so they're not the only ones who are utter ejeets and at least the unions paid cash.

Am quite looking forward to the French elections, it kinda looks like Obama's getting lucky with his opponent; can you imagine if Ron Paul had won? Ah, a man can dream can't he?

Happy Easter folks and all the best. Love Horrid Histories Pips, people say it's biased but so what, it's funny. And to find out BQ is a pseudo MP, shocked, shocked says I. Thought he represented Much-frolicking on the Muff down there in deepest Dorset.

Bill Quango MP said...

Clarification: A pseudo Mp is a real MP who does as little actual work for the constituency, party, people as possible.

In 1878 - Hugo-Connaught Bannister-Hatstand - Quango IV maid his maiden parliamentary having attended the previous 15 years without speaking .
"I believe that to prevent a man purchasing a commission in the army, or even a regiment if he so desires, would be an affront to both God and nature."

He never spoke again.

His distant relative, William C, Quango MP, is attempting to break that record.

The psedo MP record for parliamentary attendance 2011-2012.

3rd - Quango, William. -18 days
2nd - Hicoblubber, Quentin - 16.5 days {died Feb 2011}
1st - Brown, Gordon - 13 minutes.

Anonymous said...

As Gorgeous George won a landslide on a race\Islamist card, I expect all MPs with a substantial ethnic population will overtly pander to that group.

The Tories will be left looking like the party for white folks. They will have to gather the otherwise disfranchised white lower-middle class vote by embracing right-of-centre politics.

Pissed off voter said...

personally I suspect the next election will get a record as the one where no-one voted. I expect sub 30% turnout meaning whoever wins is not the peoples choice, they want someone who is not on the ballot paper.

asquith said...

So often I wish there had been a Yes vote in that AV referendum. Almost the entire Lib Dem membership is opposed to these snooping proposals, yet there isn't a chance for the Pirate Party to take off and hold their MPs' feet to the fire.

UKIP probably lack the concentration to wih many seats (their voters are by no means all in the Home Counties, many are urban and working-class) and the Greens likewise.

I've generally supported the coalition, but I'd rather see a multiparty system. I would be dismayed to see the same old bellends revert to their duopoly.