Thursday 19 April 2012

Isn't the Euro crisis boring - will Sunday change it?

I mean really, it has been going on for 3 years now, the same events repeating over and over.

Country X has a hug deficit
Markets get jittery and bond prices rise to over 6%
Eurofudge meeting and some more magic money created to sooth tensions
Things get better temporarily whilst most people observing say this is not cure
More economic bad news comes out, Country X still has a huge deficit

Believe me it is hard to write about it time after time; I even feel sorry for financial journalists who have to re-write the same article day after day after day. They could probably get good jobs in North Korea now given their skills at repeating the same lines over and over.

Of course the solution is staring everyone on the face, break-up the euro, end the deficits, devalue the currencies, a bit of default and hey presto, competitiveness is back.

However, the Euro elite are not for turning. Or even discussing anything rationally. The ludicrous Oli Rhen said today he wants markets to stop being spooked by Spain - it's a real finger-in-the-dyke approach to the world.

Sunday though sees the French election and a very good chance of the end of Mr Sarkozy as French President. Without the Ozy for Angela' Merk we will have a new world. Sadly, Francois Hollande is a lumpen socialist in the mould of Ed Milliband. He does though not agree with the Euro consensus. This could mean that things will begin to change.

On the other hand, the brainwashing from Brussels is very effective on new leaders..but it will be interesting to see the Euro elites try and impose a technocratic Government on France if they fail.


Old BE said...

If Hollande has his way (big if) the Euro should become a more flimsy southern European currency, which will suit many of its members. The Euro might actually survive longer than carrying on this ridiculous policy of forcing everyone to become German overnight.

Anonymous said...

Some of the policies the presidential hopeful Francois Hollande proposes to implement, are crackers. If Hollande wins - then the interesting thing is what markets will make of more Socialist profligacy.
France is far less competitive than Germany - Hollande's policies will widen the gap - that is not sustainable within the eurozone. If, WHEN, French borrowing rates are pushed up as high as Italy or Spain - then the euro will collapse more quickly.

Jan said...

I love the idea of hug deficits...

Nick Drew said...

And of course Hollande would steer away from$ nukes, haha !

That will put the cat among the pigeons (before someone takes him aside and has a little word)

CityUnslicker said...

I am sure the French Civil Service have a huge brainwashing chair thingy rigged up for him to plug him into as soon as he sobers up after winning!

hovis said...

Vive la France ! :-)

Budgie said...

I may be cynical (who, me?) but Hollande is just saying what will get him elected. He won't (and has no intention to) implement what he says. So it will be euro support, post election, just like now.

I am struck by what appears to be a similar mindset (world view) of the euro elite to that demonstrated during the Hitler (oops!) regime's downfall. And no, I am not comparing van Rumpy with Hitler in case there are any europhiles left out there. Or even the EU fourth Reich with the third.

Yet the backstabbing, the plotting, the refusal to acknowledge reality, the blame culture, the jostling for power has an air of deja vue all over again. Except that now the euro elite are manoeuvering phantom bail-out funds rather than imaginary armies.

Anonymous said...

"Vive la France ! :-)"

Made me smile, perfectly sums up the French.

Anonymous said...

Crisis fatigue

Sebastian Albrecht said...

I agree that technically this solution seems to be the best, but I am afraid that reality is too complex and to make a such decision would lead to unforeseeable consequences. In the present economic and financial system nobody really knows what is going on in any given moment. But I still hope that this situation will not have to be eventually solved by such a drastic measures.