In October oil stooped briefly to touch $100. But it rebounded strongly, maintaining a flat-ish $125 through March (which I misread). The earlier assessment was the correct one: the distinct prospect of GlobalRecession2 has put a dent in commodities, even as producing nations are opening the taps; the Baltic Dry Index, that traditional coalmine canary, is in decline once more; and oil dipped back into double figures again this week. Since GR2 isn't remotely played out, we may expect more flirtation with $99.
Stock markets have found reasons for optimism just now, but overall it looks like another crisis brewing: number 94 in a long and tiresome series. And right on cue, for whatever you think it's worth, gold and silver have broken out of their 3-month-long down-trend. I'd assess that particular uptick as more meaningful than the stock markets' own burst of green.