As much as with my long, high risk, equity positions I am keen for global markets to continue their advances, there is the odd risk factor at play. Economically, the only game in town is oil price. The price of oil has accurately predicted every recession of the post war, even in 2008 there was the massive spike up to $147 preceeding the Great Crash.
The driver of oil price rises (and falls after a sharp fall yesterday remains unexplained) is more of a mystery. In a time fo falling demand across the world, in US, China and Europe, one would not expect a run up in prices. Of course, this is driven by political and macro factors too. Israel faces a choice of striking Iran soon or learning to live with a nuclear armed terror state. A strike on Iran and the price of oil will shoot north of $200 a barrell for sure on a gigantic spike.
Plus there is huge volumes of speculative trading, the more monetary stimulus is pumped into the world, the higher the price of commodities will go. No doubt oil is being affected by this. However the lasting condundrum of this point is that more QE is really becoming self-defeating. As prices rise and inflation is created by the devaulation of fiat currencies, then the consumers of the world have less money to spend, feel poorer and so reduce their demand further - financial repression sets in, even with liquidity at high levels.
Many people suggest watching the gold price to see the true effects of QE; I demur, the price of oil, the driver of all human activity on a global scale, is the key price to monitor.