Thursday 27 December 2012

2013 Predictions - The Reader's Crowd Wisdom

Every year we try to do our best to predict what will happen in the coming year, with some success although the run of 70% accuracy of a few years ago has sadly come to an end - maybe the onset of dementia or maybe the world has just become more unpredictable!

Anyway, this year as well as your 3 regular writers, I am going to post up the best of the readers along with ours, names attached of course. Perhaps with more mind we can increase our accuracy back to the 70% again.

As regulars will know, this blog is primarily about business, economics, trading and politics. So these are the kind of 2013 predictions I want to see. So no chance of getting one in because you say you think Jordan's going to have an affair or Kerry Katona breakdown...

Let's see what you can do!


Malcolm Tucker said...

Piers Morgan comes back to UK at end of 2013.

Cameron survives a mild rebellion over some nonsense. Animal marriage or hunting with frogs ban or some other rubbish.

Banks hit by yet another scandal. Miss selling of something else. Gets slapped with a bigger than ever fine, so delaying the bank recovery even further, abd causing more banking job losses. Even though they deserve it, it doesn't help much.

Royal baby saves government pushing worst ever economic figures off the front page. After that things begin green shooting.

Clegg has to conceded so much ground to the Lefty wing of his party he is now further to the left of Bob Crow on most issues.

Syria conflict rumbles on. No one cares. It doesn't escalate. Neither does Israel- Iran. Obama does barest minimum on gun control. What he does fails to pass the Supreme Court anyway and is forgotten.

Happy New Year!

Blue Eyes said...

GDP growth flat in Q1 followed by better results in the second half of the year. 2% overall in 2012 taking us nearly back to the pre-recession level. The governing elite starts to realise what its energy policies are doing to heavy and manufacturing industries in the UK and starts to roll back some of the more ridiculous subsidies. The first of the new wave of fracking experiments look good and everyone piles in to Blackpool.

New BoE head starts a campaign to target nominal GDP. Government fudges it and gives the Bank a US-style remit to maximise job creation *and* target inflation in a very non-specific way. A short burst of QE tips the balance and inflation starts to rear its ugly head. By the end of the year people are talking about rises in interest rates and how the Bank might rein in some of its new money.

The Euro survives!

The lights stay on!

The internal strife of the coalition gets boring, Cameron starts to get a bit of a grip and with the economy slowly improving his position looks a bit more settled.

A new EU treaty is drafted which explicitly gives non-Euro countries the chance to opt in or out of various policies, is hailed as a new settlement for the more reluctant EU countries. Cameron calls an in-out referendum, in wins by a landslide. UKIP gives up and goes away.

Blue Eyes said...

Obviously I meant 2013.

Anonymous said...

Mandela dies. The "rainbow country" goes up in flames. Thousands of white South Africans are ethnically cleansed and flee to the UK. Foreign investment dries up as the country descends into anarchy and chaos!

Pessy Missed said...

@anon 2:42.

Some minor editorial changes:

(a)Replace 'Mandela' with 'Thatcher';
(b)Replace 'white South Africans' with 'white English people';
(c) Replace 'UK' with 'the hills'.

Otherwise, spot on.

It will be much easier to predict what will NOT happen, eg:

(a) Blair and Brown charged with treason;
(b) Cameron calls a snap in/out referendum;
(c) Interest rates climb to 2%;
(d) Chilcott Report issued in full;
(e) Patten resigns;
(f) MPs repay in full all fraudulently claimed expenses;
(g) Mr Speaker tells a funny joke.

etc etc etc....

Electro-Kevin said...

First gay marriage June 5th (my birthday)

New wave of male migration takes place stemming from those men already granted asylum. Vast numbers of blokes in shiny leather jackets turn up at Lunar house stating that so-and-so "...iz ma 'uzband."

Simon Fawthrop said...

Three from the mobile industry:

1. 4G auction doesn't raise anywhere near the Chancellors target of £3.5bn. I reckon not more than £2bn.

2. The Orange brand name disappears (as does T Mobile) as the EE brand takes over.

3. A bit wilder speculation: H3G and BT in some sort of tie up or possible BT buying H3G.

Demetrius said...

The West will go bust, the UK government will collapse, there will be a couple of nuclear wars and a small pandemic will begin. Also several volcanoes and nasty big earthquakes. Apart from that it will be a quiet year.

Graeme said...

Equity release selling scandal hits banks and independent financial advisors.

Tiny earth tremor felt in Manchester, so frakking of the Bowland Shale is halted. Cameron pulls out of the coalition.

The Syrian revolt will run along for another 6 months and then Turkey will invade.

NHS nurses go on strike, the Government sends in foreign-trained nurses and the death rates in NHS hospitals plummet.

Anonymous said...

Extreme weather events over Britain
Credit downgraded to A-
Base rate raised to 1.5%
Millions of Croatians flood UK for benefits feather-bed
Met police conspiracy for coup d'etat exposed
House prices drop 10% in real terms
Huhne gets away with it

Timbo614 said...

Complacency. in 2013: It's my experience that just when you think things are getting better... they get worse.

1) A market tumble > 1000 points.
Complacency will get the "market" a big fall is due. Too much make believe money is trying to be repaid by too many.
2) A Big Corp will go bust.
"Big Profits"(cost/labour savings in most cases) will dwindle as people run out of surplus spending money and are unwilling to borrow.
3) Despite downturns oil rebounds and costs still more by the end of the year, $125+ ??.
4) People start to abandon pension Ponzi schemes in larger numbers despite govt. rules as inflation is let rip in an attempt to pay down the bank and govt. debt.
5) The weather in the UK gets even worse(wetter still with interspersed heatwaves) affecting farming and therefore food prices. More will need to be imported.
6) 100s more pubs go bust.
7) 100s more off-line small retailers give up and disappear.
8) Cameron gets something seriously wrong and gets seriously fucked over by labour(I don't want this because a new labour govt. would be even more of a disaster) But he is asking for it and will deserve it).
9) A final taxation increase on the poorer of us could trigger civil unrest as the real cuts/inflation start to be felt(probably later in the year maybe 2014).
10) On a brighter note, Timbo's C@W predictions are 70% wrong :)

Have a happy new year all...

john in cheshire said...

Anonymous, 2.42, +1

Kate gives birth to a lizard, her medical team shown to be zombies and the markets tumble. Gold reaches $15000/oz and silver is unobtainable at any price; but surprisingly, those who need it get it.
The Chinese buy up most of London and move all the social dependents out so the new-comers can inflate the property prices and hedge their US debt holdings.
India bans all gold exports.
Australia begins to assert itself as the successor of the USA.
Canada gets totally pissed at the US insults and closes its borders.
Mexico sets up economic zones on the border with the US and attracts business from both the US and China with its tax incentives.
Iran kills one Christian too many and forces the EU to take retaliatory action which puts the muslim world back in its box and allows normal people to conduct normal behaviour on the world stage; tourism accelerates now that Westerners are assured their governments will protect them from the savage hordes in the East.
The heads of major banks in most Western countries are brought to justice and start to serve long prison terms. They are housed in prisons with glass viewing windows so the public can come to watch them, taunt them and, for an extra fee, pain them with cattle prods.
Jamie Dimon tries to exsanguinate himself but is prevented from doing so by one of his prey.
Some or all of these suggestions will come to pass.

lilith said...

This isn't fair. I was right about Lindsey Lohan.

Jan said...

More of the same...

House prices continue their slow decline except in London and surrounds where there is a very modest increase (1%)

Middle East continues to squabble with little spats which don't really escalate. Perhaps Assad may go to be replaced by internal squabbling and jostling for power.

The Euro will survive by the skin of its teeth as will the coalition.

No change in laws on gay marriage/foxhunting/women bishops etc

Fiscal cliff will come and go with an almighty fudge. Debts in all indebted countries will rise so that taxes raised fail to pay even the interest on the borrowings.

More extreme weather events (yawn) but disastrous for those caught up in them.

Stock market remains too high considering fundamentals. Gold rises a bit and silver a lot. Oil up and down but no real change. Inflation picks up a bit.

Dithering on fracking/nuclear/subsidies for renewables.

Steady worsening of conditions in Greece, Spain etc

All this and more until a black swan event and I don't know what that will be so I can't predict it!

DtP said...

Interest rates go up (only a smidge) hitting 1 whole percent by this time next year.

A good year for the FTSE with a fair bit of consolidation hitting a vulgar high of about 6400 (too much eggnog maybe!)

(The Eurozone bandwagon remains intact - so not really a prediction, more the absense of one. It's quite amazing how much the bastards are prepared to throw at their fantastical whimsies)

Jennifer Aniston & Sophie Marceau realise the errors of their ways and decide to pitch up at Casa del Ricky and slowly kill me with their passionate desires. Amadillo, Dime Bar etc etc wibble.

Anonymous said...

1) The dreaded Triple Dip
2) More High Street stores to go boom
3) Euro continuing to stumble along despite the best efforts of itself
4) Big Green protests against fracking
5) The Lib Dems botch up their distancing from the Tories splitting the coalition

And on the flip side...

Fracking awakens either Crom or Cthulu, who proceed to devour all the protesting Greens to everyone's delight, and then cause panic by devouring everything else too. World is saved when it tries to eat Eric Pickles and chokes to death.

Nelson Mandela dies, causing the Spice Girls to reform and do a single in his honour, sadly they pick to do it with Jim Davidson who does a rap over it as Chalky which causes even the BNP to baulk at it.

Tories rebrand as the Hors D'oeuvres Party due to the sheer number of dips.

The latest band to be selected to try and the Xmas number one instead of a Cowellista will be Napalm Death.

andrew said...

Completely controversial.
It will be a year where at the end of the year, in retrospect, nothing extraordinary happened.