Monday 17 December 2012

Triple Dip 2013?

I think this is unlikely on balance because you need 2 quarters of negative growth to officially be a triple dip and they need to be consecutive. I can see Q4 2012 being low but not too low. Although the FTSE is wobbling in the year end as companies like Aggreko deliver yet more sets of poor results. Clearly, with the Coalition having been in power for 2.5 years now the austerity hits to public sector spend are really biting into a whole section of the private world. In the long-term this is great news for the Country, in the short-term there are adjustments to be made.

on the more positive side, the excessive stimulus in China seems to be having the effect of driving better growth there and in the US there is a steadying off of gains, but nonetheless growth is above 2% which is also positive. As long as the US and China stay in good shape this is good news for the rest of the world.

So on balance, the OBR forecast for next year of 0.8% is pretty accurate, as this may well infer at least one quarter of negative growth, but two in a row is unlikely so a triple dip will be avoided, albeit not by much!


roym said...

'the OBR forecast for next year of 0.8% is pretty accurate'

big shout CU! i doubt even they are that confident

Nick Drew said...

CU's track record is good!

However, the entire macro-economic forecasting game (which was always a sham) has been thoroughly debunked since 2007

official 'forecasts' for any given quarter are being updated even after the Qtr has finished

in short, no bugger has a clue

bring on the C@W predictions!

Blue Eyes said...

Q4 will show a big rise in GDP as growth always matches my spending patterns.

Anonymous said...

Excessive consumption taxation plus the number of illegals working cash-in-hand has created a huge 'black' economy. I'd say the official figures are missing at least 10% of my personal spend.

The 'doom and gloom' figures simply don't square with the visible spending

Electro-Kevin said...

I'm increasing my mortgage.

The 'conmy's bound to crash.

andrew said...

So, that is 2% growth in the south and 1% contraction in the north then.

Blue Eyes said...

EK - just do what Gordon used to do and call it "investment". That is how I'm spinning my flat refurb :-)

Electro-Kevin said...

Taking it from the pension pot and the kid's savings too, Blue.