Tuesday, 26 February 2013

Italy Election: could it ever happen to the UK?

The markets across Europe have taken sharp falls following the announcement of inital results from the Italian election. The incredible Senor Silvio Berlusconi has come back from allegations of impropriety that would surely have finished him off in almost any other democracy. The Left have appointed a former communist in Bersani and then there is the new protest party of Bepe Grillo - none of them have enough of the votes to be in Government or lead a majority Government. Mario Monti's centrist party got just 10%.

What this tells me is that Italians are deeply frustrated with their politicians, not that surprising perhaps. The Austerity of Mario Monti has proven even more unpopular, hence his terrible electoral performance.

The main party who led with a austerity-light continuity set of policies was the Left coalition, oddly and in many ways they lost badly. Instead, Berlusconi came back to win huge support on the back of offering massive tax cuts and Bepe Grillo's campaign has some great points about transparency, press freedom and getting rid of convicted politicians; however, there are plenty of loopy ideas too about a green economy and free wifi - demagogic appeals to the young to all intents and purposes. Certainly nothing approaching a manifesto on which you could run a real Government.

So what next for Italy - who knows, perhaps t'was always thus for them.

The interesting piece to me though is the power of the promise of free stuff has made such an impact. Berlusconi with his tax cuts, Grillo with his greenery. This is allied with a powerful rejection of austerity as a political or economic solution.

In many ways the UK is in the same boat as italy, public spending is considerably in excess of revenues and taxes are already high. There is not much real choice but austerity in the long-term, the only argument really is about how quickly or slowly to do the deed.

But politicians in Italy are deluding the public that there is some kind of choice, and winning. The Labour party here skims around the concept of no austerity, but frequently Milliband pulls back and says at least some of the cuts must stay. The real Italian like threat comes perhaps from UKIP - a party able to make promises and with no history of breaking these to ruin, nor experience of the electorate to know not to tust them. Perhaps too the desperate Lib Dems may start to take highly populist lines pre-election in a desperate attempt to save their seats - this will be less credible given their poor track record in Government.

Also the UK has been drifting to a more multi-party state for a long time now, SNP, Plaid Cymru both of these parties plus the Northern Irish ones have plenty of seats, even the Greens got a seat.

With hatred of Labour for wrecking the economy in 2008 and the Tories for the austerity since, could an Italian style political situation yet develop in the UK?

22 comments:

hovis said...

Could it happen in the UK - it already has except that the party system and first past the post has preserved the apperance of status quo. we have had abroken system for a while - like the banks we are pretending its not.

As for Berleconi and tax cuts - I would recommend some of Hatfield Girls commentary on the property taxes he actually wants to cut. I would have never put you as a we must keep taxes kinda guy CU?

hovis said...

btw I have given up correcting my typo's in commenst - as you can tell ...

measured said...

Our civil servants are too shrewd to let this happen. They oil the side of the wheels they want to turn.

For instance, do you really think we would have a Conservative government forever if Scotland gained independence.

CityUnslicker said...

Hovis, glad to hear you have given up editing comments, as you well know my approach to editing posts is somewhat lacking.

of course I am not against tax cuts, but I am against any politician offering totally undeliverable promises - that way only lies greece and a collapse of the system if politicians feel free just to tell complete lies.


They do this a bit in the UK, but I don't see it on the scale as seems to be the case in Italy.

Bill Quango MP said...

Odd thing about Italy is that its recent history would suggest the population should have heard every possible promise and seen that the majority of them have brought ruin.

Probably joining the Eu and the Euro was a great thing for Italian prosperity. If only the corruption had been significantly reduced at the same time.

However, to many Grandparent Italians a charismatic man shouting populist slogans from a balcony, denouncing his opponents as enemies of the people and promising to restore the 'real Italy' should have set a few alarm bells ringing.

Budgie said...

Lots of black market in Italy. I knew an Italian with three jobs, only one of which was taxed. They probably have lower taxes than we do as a result.

Jer said...

Hatred of the tories for the austerity you say?

Is that because, or despite, the fact that there really isn't any?

Demetrius said...

Three acres and a cow? Free beer for the workers? Abolish the landlords? Cheap bread for all?

Blue Eyes said...

Isn't this precisely what did happen in the UK in 2010? A comedian with no plausible policies got some fleeting media attention, a hung parliament ensued and a coalition between the centre-right and an rag-tag assortment of free-marketeers and members of the arts and crafts movement was born?

DtP said...

Happy Days - Wat Tyler's returned to blogging - although he's using his real name now; whassat all abooot?

http://burningourmoney.blogspot.co.uk/

James Higham said...

Think it's just as bizarre here only minus the humour.

Ryan said...

I always said that Cameron would tear the Tories apart. I'm guessing that people will vote as they always do here - in the manner that best suits their own pocker. However, the Tory party itself could be torn to shreds by Cameron's pro-gay rights, light-touch immigration control and wayward government spending. The EU is seen by the Tory right as the root of all evil and continued involvement in it is not really an option for them. I think when the Tories lose the next election the right might stick the knife so far into the back of the Tory party it might never recover. So I'm guessing Labour winning the next election outright, screwing up totally, and UKIP winning the election after that.

We live in interesting times...


asquith said...

Bersani always looks miserable as sin. Presumably because he knows he'll win one day and is actually dreading it. Mind you, I think the best outcome would be for this Italy, Common Good to win decisively, and then for a proper centre-right movement without Berlusconi's involvement to be formed as a coherent opposition. I wonder what it will take to finally make him disappear, as he won't be shamed off the stage despite his own disastrousness from just about every point of view.

As he is one of the biggest hindrances to the situation I'd want, with two main blocs (each of several distinct parties) and a coherent force that exists outside them, which I can't imagine this Grillo providing. None of them is much discernible use but surely it is the left's turn now.

Electro-Kevin said...

I'm returning to my belief that the last election was the one the Tories should have lost.

WitteringsfromWitney said...

Interesting last question.

Purely a personal view, but I don't think it will happen in this country, at least not in the manner you intimate.

In this country it is true to say that the electorate also considers the political class corrupt, elitist and closed, but the electorate also know that there is something wrong with representative democracy. The problem they have is that they are unaware of a method whereby it could be changed.

It is my belief that a movement proffering such an alternative, one that offers the electorate answers to their problems, could sweep the board so to speak using the methods employed by Grillo.

It is my conviction that the ideas encapsulated within The Harrogate Agenda are what the electorate need. Based on Direct Democracy, the benefits of such a system are evident when one looks at the political stability of Switzerland; and it is also evident that such a system has produced not only stability but national wealth.

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Referencement Maroc said...

at this tells me is that Italians are deeply frustrated with their politicians, not that surprising perhaps. The Austerity of Mario Monti has proven even more unpopular, hence his terrible electoral performance.

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The interesting piece to me though is the power of the promise of free stuff has made such an impact. Berlusconi with his tax cuts, Grillo with his greenery.

agence web said...

"The real Italian like threat comes perhaps from UKIP - a party able to make promises and with no history of breaking these to ruin, nor experience of the electorate to know not to tust them."

Cours informatique said...

"Also the UK has been drifting to a more multi-party state for a long time now, SNP, Plaid Cymru both of these parties plus the Northern Irish ones have plenty of seats, even the Greens got a seat.
"c'est vraiment très interessant

Agence communication said...

wonderful "" The markets across Europe have taken sharp falls following the announcement of inital results from the Italian election. The incredible Senor Silvio Berlusconi has come back from allegations of impropriety that would surely have finished him off in almost any other democracy. The Left have appointed a former communist in Bersani and then there is the new protest party of Bepe Grillo - none of them have enough of the votes to be in Government or lead a majority Government. Mario Monti's centrist party got just 10%.""