Tuesday 21 January 2014

IMF Upgrade for UK

It's always nice to see some real humble pie being consumed. As most readers will be aware, the UK remains in a parlous financial state, as does much of the Western world. The whole recovery will be de-railed sooner or later by the next stage of the Euro crisis and by the sheer unsustainability of the debts accrued across the West by their over-purchase of Chinese goods.

However, austerity is not the cause but offers partial solution. Better still would be the re-structure of the welfare state in the West along more Hobbesian lines, but for now that is incompatible with democracy. So austerity of some sort remains the best approach. The Coalition government at least did apply the brakes to Labour spending and after some time is now reaping the rewards with a more stable growth than has been achieved in say the US. The IMF were very quick to blame Osborne for his crazy (read, un-French) policies and now the UK is prediceted to be the fastest growing Western nation this year.

It must make for a little bit of extra spring in the Chancellor's morning jog today.

The real challenge lays on two fronts though. Firstly that there seems to be no political benefit to the 'hated' Tories for engineering a recovery - after all, it's what they said they would do. Secondly, with interest rates at 0.5% and QE in place, we are still deep in the middle of the woods with no clear path out yet identified.


andrew said...

"Firstly that there seems to be no political benefit to the 'hated' Tories for engineering a recovery "

Not sure about that.

Amongst those who vote, I think they will get a benefit.

The trouble is that on an emotional level, it is hard to know who to dislike more.

milliband 'free bananas for all' (morecambe and wise / the magnificent two)
or osbourne 'i am enjoying your pain' (no film ref)

Ryan said...

2.7% growth for seven years will get rid of the deficit without any further cuts needing to be made.

Jer said...

_Further_ cuts Ryan?

I admire your optimism that costs might be held for seven years though.

Dick the Prick said...

@CU & Andrew

A spring in the Chancellor's step that hasn't yet translated to the voter's intention - a rum affair indeed.

I remain in dispute that austerity has even happened and that Osborne isn't wanking into his cornflakes thinking he's clever. He adopted Labour's spending plans up to the last minute and we keep on being offered shiny shiny things in 2017 but ffs, even in coalition attacking Google, Amazon et al would both clean the narrative and afford, yer know, a raison d'etre - the cunt being cruel to be kind agin welfare recipients is fine but where's the reciprocation?

I thought the Tories would stand up to corporate interests because they had power and knew how to use it - meh, is Steve Hilton's wife protecting Google? It's totally amateur.

Every economist knows Osborne got lucky rather than strategic and the charge of sucking corporate cock can be levelled. Is disciplining the City genuinely harder than walking headfirst into an NHS fight that no-one cared about?

UKIP are stealing the level playing field from the Tories - they're stealing their compassion. Tories should focus on fairness. Non doms, tax evaders & avoiders - a nice fuck you policy to the City - "Cool, move to New York and get frozin in &/or shot". If London is desirable, it must have its politicians helping it. Under 25 housing benefit elimination when no capital gains on foreign property or stipulated domicilic clauses, useage and local authority flexibility is hardly fucking attacking the foundations. If Tories can't handle wealth then someone should have a word. Wankers - open goal and they run from it.

Timbo614 said...

OH! have we stopped the Gas fuelled, get fracking, glad fisting party!? Kept out of that, might have been unpopular :)

I would apply some of DtP's adjectives and to the IMF and their buddies. They bend with the wind more than Cameron.

DJK said...

DtP: Couldn't agree more.

Blue Eyes said...

Remember 1997? "The elusive feelgood factor".

IF* this renewed confidence keeps up for a bit longer and there is no big setback then people might not yet feel confident again but might at least feel like they might feel confident again in future.

I think the Tories are winning the popular argument on welfare reform. Labour are now trying to play catch-up. There will be votes in looking tough on spending at the next election.

Things are looking up.

* hopefully CU won't get his way. Obviously some very careful words were chosen and France may yet pull back from the brink.