Wednesday 1 January 2014

New Year 2014 Predictions

This year we are going to have a slightly differently feel for our Predictions. Given recent efforts have not been so great, Jan and Malcolm Tucker excepted, the time has come for change.

So this year there are 5 questions to known major events or activities, let's see if anyone can get 5 right, answers in the comments please - I will leave this post up for a couple of days to give everyone a chance to see it:

1 - Where will UKIP finish in UK national polling European Parliamentary elections (i.e. First, Second, third etc)

2- What will be the result of the Scottish National Referendum (yes or no)

3- What level will the FTSE end the year at?

4- Which national  football team will win the world cup?

5- By what percentage with the UK economy grow or shrink in 2014?


CityUnslicker said...

1 - 2nd
2 - Yes
3 - 7100
4 - Brazil
5 - 1.8%

Simon Fawthrop said...

1. 2nd
2. No (Sadly)
3. 7,300
4. Germany
5. +1.4%

Dick the Prick said...

1) I'll get a girlfriend

2) Will fix my kitchen

3) Get a proper job

4) Blag an MBA

5) Get a driving licence

6) Help my mum move house

Not celebrate when UKIP does its thing (been vetoed from helping out - probly a good thing @ 3)

Happy new years guys and thanks.

Richard Elliot said...

1. 2nd
2. No
3. 7,102
4. Uruguay
5. +1.6

Steven_L said...

1. 2nd
2. No (but over a third vote yes)
3. 5,900
4. Portugal
5. +2.2%

Arthur Dent said...


Raedwald said...

1 - 2nd
2 - No
3 - 6,700
4 - Spain
5 - 2.5%

andrew said...

1 - Second
The interesting question is what happens to the 3rd placed party in terms of pp broadcasts / access to state support etc...

2- No
I wish it was Y

3- max in year 7800, end year 7500
unlike 2013 where we all started off looking at a glass half empty, and it turned out to be half full, in '14 the reverse will happen, I expect softness in Q1/2 but corporate profits will boink (a technical term) upwards and that will force the index up.
Note I don't think 7800 is a new high in real terms

4- Brazil
Do not discount homefield advantage

5- +3%
The surprising lack unemployment is suspected to be due to people kept in work but not fully occupied. I think this is right and so output can grow without having to hire.

Winter olympics will go off ok, but there will be lots of nastiness in 'nearby' (in Russian not UK terms) cities.
I bought winter tyres, so there will be lots of bad weather but no snow.
Major commission on spying/privacy announced in US
Unrest in parts of France (no pretence that they are all in it together over there)
Assad will still hold parts of Syria.
Major commission on spying/privacy announces proposals that solve the problem but leave you with less privacy than you had 10 years ago

Sebastian Weetabix said...

1. Second. Labour will come first.
2. A big fat "no" (I hope)
3. 6,950
4. Brazil
5. The rise in debt and growth in the money supply will kid us into believing the economy has grown 2.5%. In reality our slow motion decline will continue. Until the money system dies.

Nick Drew said...

1. 3rd (well someone has to state the obvious about the UK political system)

2. No

3. 7,425

4. Uruguay

5. +2.6%

JamesS said...


1) Third - Lack of immigration from EU will calm fears
2) No
3) 6700
4) Belgium
5) +0.8%

Bill Quango MP said...

1 - 2nd
2 - no
3 - 6985
4 - Brazil
5 - 2%

Ossian said...

1 - UKIP will be 1st and Cameron will be knifed by his party in favour of GO who will suddenly come over all Euro sceptic. Neither Cameron or GO have a backbone so one will be sacrificed for the other.

2 - Scotland will learn from the Euro elections that being lumped with the misanthropic Home Counties / dead hand of the City does nothing for them. The Welsh will wonder why they are now less liked than the Romanians/Bulgarians.

3 - 10,000 if Cameron goes early.

4 - England. But supporters will still complain the manager is no use.

5 - +3% if Cameron goes early.

Jan said...

Let's see if my crystal ball will perform for another year:

1. second
2. no
3. 6000
4. Italy (no idea really!)
5. + 0.5%

Kilgore Trout said...

2. No
3. No idea.
4. Argentina
5. 2 percent

david morris said...

HNY all

1. 2nd
2. No
3. 4500 & going south
4. Uruguay (like who cares)
5. -0.8

Timbo614 said...

As I can't do any worse than this year a contrarian Set of answers...

1) 1st (they are on a roll at the mo)
2) Yes (they are silly enough)
3) 6837 (+1.8% see 5 below)
4) England, EngLAND, ENGLAND!!
5) 1.8% UP.

Good luck to all See you all back here next year if I survive, we are prepared and sandbagged for Flood Wars Episode 2 (the return of the waters). :(

Budgie said...

Okay, I thought I posted a prediction last year, but here is this year's:

1. UKIP first on votes, but second on MEPs. Cameron will be third, Clegg fourth, and serve them right.
2. Scots will vote for independence by a narrow majority of those voting; but a decided minority of all Scots. This will be bad for Scotland and bad for England.
3. FTSE 100 will end the year below 6500, due to Scots vote, and after having been above 7000.
4. What's "football" anyway? - but I will say Brazil, the home side.
5. 2.5% mainly due to immigrants and houses, rather than any increase in productivity.
6. BoE rate: 0.5%
7. Savings rates up due to closure of funding for lending.
8. House prices up 3% outside London; 7% for London.
9. Gold price $1150/oz (ie down on this year).
10. Euro will still be with us (I think this is the fourth year in a row that I've said this).
11. Brent just below $100/barrel.
12. Blair, Brown, Cameron, Milliband, Clegg, and numerous minor oddities from Bercow via McShane to Yeo will be confined to the fires of Hell, as they richly deserve. Well, maybe just prison then.

CityUnslicker said...

good luck Timbo!

Jer said...

1. First (mainly by default, other English parties are deeply unattractive).
2. No, teeth will remain firmly clamped on nipple.
3. 7001
4. Germany - the Germans have an affinity for South America after all...
5. 2.7% - mostly manipulated.

DJK said...

1. First
2. No, but but yes vote will be big enough for Salmond to call a rematch in two years.
3. 7500
4. Holland
5. +2.2% (mostly due to population increase)

Anonymous said...

1. Maybe 25 seats depends how fed up the electorate is with three main parties
2. Probably too close to call
3. probably creep slowly up but doubts might to creep in leading to a slow drop to present levels
4. Who really cares (sorry CU)
5. May edge up slightly but when the loan fuelled Christmas spending spree starts to hit home go down slightly

john in cheshire said...

I didn't do too well last year; I think that there's a tendency to predict what I want to happen rather than what I think will happen. Anyway, here's my list :
1. second with a significant increase in the number of MEPs, which will maintain pressure on the Conservatives and Mr Cameron's future
2. They'll vote no but we'll end up giving them even more money per capita as a bribe. And the whingeing about England will just go on and on.
3. FTSE will end around where it has begun this year; the financial wizards (cowboys?) will struggle hard to do this because post-2015 election there will be a significant fall, particularly after the theft of 10% of all savings.
4. I have no interest in sport, let alone football, so I'll say Brazil
5. The official figure will be positive because we will be less than 6 months from a general election. It will be as usual a nonsense figure, but the MSM will report it as gospel and enough people will pretend to believe it such that it becomes fact. Figure somewhere around 2%.

MyNewYearsName said...

A bit late with this one but hey, ho..... A cure (or method/drug to prevent growth) for _some_ cancers will be found or announced this year this year.