Saturday, 14 June 2014

ISIS? What ISIS?


Vietnam war comparisons are going to be inevitable. When the victorious NVA arrived at the Palace they found the main gates locked so knocked them down with a tank, pretty much ending the military phase of that conflict. I guess the photographer sneaked in through the broken gate in the background to capture the moment.

Searching the web for Iraq/Vietnam yields hundreds of pages of comment which sadly, are mostly partisan and highly biased in favour of their owner's viewpoint. Trying to find someting objective is actually quite difficult. Even trying to find something simple such as "Did Tony Blair encourage the UK to war?"  brings up endless illegal war-5million dead-Mossad-Tory plot-Saudi-militaryinustrialcomplex that is mostly just people sounding off and sheds little light.

In military terms the US could have won in Vietnam. In the same way that the US could defeat any nation on the planet in a conventional 1vs1 fight. But the US military did not manage to win the Vietnam war of 1965-1975.

Throughout that conflict the US did cripple the NVA regular army forces more than once. They did damage the Viet Cong insurgency to such an extent they became ineffective. They had air superiority over all of south Vietnam and controlled the coast and seas from the very beginning. But as we know they lost the war.

As part of the aftermath the US military looked at its role and its tactics and established a new military doctrine for conflicts in countries like Vietnam. And they also discovered the limits of their power.
This book , lessons and legacies is pretty comprehensive, though at £145 its a bit steep. So we shall sumarise just a few.

1. If you are going to use strategic bombing, bomb early and  bomb often. 
Contrary to my own feeling the lesson from Vietnam was to bomb much more heavily, many more targets, and much earlier. Its a different situation to Iraq though. The USAF waited far to long to bomb Hanoi and suffered heavy losses and political pain from doing so. The lesson seems to be Rolling Thunder should have been implemented with its original objectives of attacking 100+ targets in North Vietnam and not the watered down version that actually happened..{this does rather ignore the political aspect though. Which was the war might escalate with Soviet or Chinese forces becoming involved.} General Maxwell Taylor, in his assessments of the chances of US success in Vietnam before forces were committed, stressed North Vietnam's vulnerability to strategic bombing. 
Anyway, that lesson was learned. The shock and awe really was shock and awe. I still feel it was counterproductive in the longer term, but in order to win the land war against conventional Iraqis the air force destroyed most things of any military value. But Iraq was never going to be conquered by strategic bombing.

2. Secure all land borders. If you can't, don't even begin operations.
This was crucial and a major reason for the failure of Vietnam. The North Vietnamese infiltrated all along Southern Vietnam's long  border with Laos and Cambodia. The geography and topography assisted the North with staging positions , concealment and infiltration options on a scale that US forces could never contain. It was decided that any future war must be able to seal or operate on the borders.
On paper this must have looked good in Iraq. Lots of borders and some really unfriendly nations adjacent. But clean, clear barren zones, suitable for air power to operate and recon to spot any movements easily.

Didn't really work out. The border too long. The enemies too many.The factions too great and with too many resources to draw upon.  And the decision to actually do it not taken. An insurgency developed that proved to be every bit as impossible to prevent destabilising the country as the VC had been.
Korea was almost perfect for UN forces in terms of borders and access and terrain. Vietnam could hardly have been worse. Iraq, somewhere in the middle.

The others are the usual. Win hearts and minds. Establish clear mission goals and achieve those goals. Avoid insurgency and counter-insurgency battles. Attack the enemies strength. Commit appropriate numbers of forces for an appropriate duration with appropriate resources for their mission. .. and so on.


Well, can't learn much from any of this, so its probably the political and academic conclusion of the Vietnam war that apply.

 Most academic writing on the war advances the view that the political failings of the South Vietnamese state made it virtually impossible for the United States to achieve its objectives, 


And that is true. There in a nutshell is why the US lost. because South Vietnam was a corrupt, divided, factional, military-dictatorship without strong support from its own people, totally reliant on US aid and US combat units. And the US wasn't fighting just North Vietnamese communists. It was fighting the communist bloc.
The North mobilised for total war. The South never did. The North used terror and terrorism and was very successful in intimidating villages to support the communists through fear and terror. The communists also spent huge amounts on propaganda and it was also extremely successful. They likened US troops to the colonial French, only recently pushed out. They promised a better future often under pain of death. Hanoi pumped out the most outrageous lies about their victories and enemies lies and atrocities, .But in a closed society without access to external media, it was believed.
But the VC was also able to impose order in the areas it controlled. The possibility of a US airstrike was ever present but the possibility of bandits and deserters stealing and murdering was not.


And that's probably also why ISIS is on the march.

Historians also tend to agree that the fatal blow for South Vietnam occured when the North violated the Paris agreements and the Nixon administration did nothing, despite their treaty obligations. The NVA knew their was no appetite for restarting the conflict from the United States and acted accordingly.

***

Which led to 


 In the end it all boils down to one question: Could we have won a military victory in Vietnam? Record's answer is: Yes, but not at any price even remotely acceptable to the American people. One thoughtful former infantry battalion commander told me he had reflected long and hard about what would have resulted from unlimited war, including an invasion of North Vietnam: ''We could have won a military victory without question. But today my sons and yours would still be garrisoning Vietnam and fighting and dying in an unending guerrilla war.'' 
The war was ours to lose, and we did; it was for the South Vietnamese to win, and they could not.











78 comments:

Nick Drew said...

Looks like my facetious post-QT nomination is correct, and Iranian Revolutionary Guard it is

it's all Mao's fish/water theory: if this ISIS mob have some safe waters to swim in they'll be hard to catch: if not, 7000 ain't remotely enough to take on, well, anyone with a modicum of discipline and airpower

(there is nowhere to hide from aircraft in most of that country - trust me on this one, I have the 1991 T-shirt. Saddam was reduced to parking beneath motorway bridges - and that was before proper drones)

Iran's price will be simple: end sanctions and leave Assad alone

Electro-Kevin said...

I know what I'd be doing right now if I were ISIS.

Dick the Prick said...

There's also objective - what does a win look like? Vietnam was communism but mainly imperialism, prevent the dominion of the soviet bloc. Iraq is religious. Now that fraking's easing requirements all that's left is Israel. Much as i'd happily jump on the Tony Blair's an idiot bandwagon, if something's inevitable it's gonna happen sooner or later.

With China buying Africa and Russia siding with total nutjobs it almost appears that they're finally taking some accountability for their vulgarity. If the middle east or the Ukraine wants a war then that's a win, surely?

dearieme said...

"I guess the photographer sneaked in through the broken gate in the background to capture the moment." More likely it was faked, like so many of the other famous war photos (such as the marines raising the flag on Iwo Jima, the Red Army at the Reichstag, the cockney sparrow gallantly delivering his milk bottles through the blitz). Fake the lot of 'em.

dearieme said...

Enough of ISIS: what are Cherwell doing?

dearieme said...

Since WW2, the US has won battles but not wars. (It's good at skirmishes though - Grenada, Serbia.) The sole exception is the First Gulf War. So that's the one to study and contrast with Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan: this latter three look very much like the same war but fought at different times and places.

Anonymous said...

ISIS is a result of Western support (and tacit approval of Saudi support/arms) for the Syrian headchoppers, just as Bin Laden was a consequence of our support for the Afghan mujahideen (remember Sandy Gall heading in a jeep for the front line to see how the US and UK "aid" was being used?).

You'd have thought after Iraq and then Libya we'd have been leery of mixing it in Syria, but our rulers were all for another bombing campaign. While I'm a believer in cock-up rather than conspiracy, after those two examples could anyone be in any doubt how Syria would turn out? Maybe for TPTB (the powers that be) a fractured and violent Syria was the required result?

Dan Drezner opined in Foreign Policy a while back that fomenting revolt in Syria was a way of weakening Iran (and their proxy Hezbollah), and that's what it was about. It makes more sense than the alternative, that our rulers are such idiots they think that Syria will be different to Iraq and Libya.

Bill Quango MP said...

ND: The amazing thing is how quickly the insurgents have advanced and how quickly the Iraqi regulars have fled. Aren't there some 800,000 Iraqi troops in the country?
if they won't fight, then ISIS cannot be stopped. Now there must be some hardcore special forces units. Some republican Guard types in that army. They can't all be 2nd line virtual conscripts who chose army over unemployment.

The bottom of the post was the key point. In 1975 the US did nothing. So the ARVN southern army retreated and retreated until it finally dawned on them that only victory could save them. Much too late they stood and fought and were overrun.

If Obama does nothing.. its game over.
I'm sure he will do something but it may not be enough to persuade the Iraqis to fight instead of fleeing.

EK : What would you be doing?

DTP: Not always easy to decide what a win looks like. But I think we've seen plenty to show us what a loss looks like.

Dearieme. of course many are fakes. or reproductions. Very dangerous to be taking photos on the Recihstag during the fighting.
Some 250,000 casualties in that battle.
the helicopter one is a genuine as it happened.

As for Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam and Iraq 1 - i remember the US politicos laughing at a press conference when a reporter, BBC I think, asked if Iraq{2} would be a Vietnam.
NO they said. But they never answered his follow question which was WHY WILL THIS BE DIFFERENT?

Anon: Not so sure. Better to have peace. Peaceful, prosperous neighbours destabilises failing states much more than conflict.
A failed state on the border allows repression and militarisation and nationalism to exist as a permanent.

andrew said...

i have read a few (like 2) books on vietnam - so my knowledge on that is limited.

what most commentators dont mention is that we are distressed at seeing the collapse of a country that was defined not by geography or history or culture, but some british bloke called sykes about 100 years ago and so why should anyone be surprised if the citizens primarialy identify themselves as kurds/shis/sunni

Nick Drew said...

fomenting revolt in Syria was a way of weakening Iran

when we've been discussing Ukraine here I have espoused the theory that post Afghanistan, post Iraq, the US neocons (having lost access to the US National-Will-To-Fight, but by no means lost the desire to take on their 'enemies' - China, Russia, Iran ...) hve decided on a cheap, easy-to-execute strategy of causing trouble for said enemies by stirring up stuff on their many borders

MyUsualName said...

If the west would just conceded and allow the Shia parts of Iraq to merge with Iran it'd all be settled.
I dont get this fear of Iran (or even a greater Mesopotamia) that TPTB seem to have. Any Iranians I've met have been decent, cultured, respectful people; possibly more so than any other broadly Islamic country.
Is this what 'we' fear about them? I dont get it. I'd prefer them to the mad-ass Wahibi Saudis/Gulf nutters.

MyUsualName said...

***Sorry, I meant of course a 'Greater Persia' not Mesopotamia.

dearieme said...

Sykes-Picot lasted pretty well, all considered, until the USA decided to pile Arab corpses high.

Bill Quango MP said...

Could be a Good Friday quiz dm.

What dates were the countries created?
Who's the noob?

Costa Rica
Belgium
Iceland
Latvia
Nigeria

hovis said...

"if they won't fight, then ISIS cannot be stopped."

Why would they fight? Tgh Curent Iraqi adminstration is weak and corrupt and ther must be doubts as to how it will survive even if ISIS were defeated. SO why should they fight? And why would Rpublican Guard types who are likely Sunni go into bat for the Shia led government?

All this is a consequence of the US being utter fuck nuts and (i) decapitating (almost literally) but not replacing the Saddam regime. and (ii) disbanding the Iraq police and Army almost immediately. They didnt read Imperialism 101

BrianSJ said...

How to deal with insurgency by someone who succeeded
http://libcom.org/library/low-intensity-operations-subversion-insurgency-peacekeeping

However, the world has moved on, and John Robb's Brave New War is pretty gloomy
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Brave-New-War-Terrorism-Globalization/dp/0470261951

Jan said...

I imagine arms/weapons dealers/manufacturers love wars...it's good for business.

rwendland said...

> Why would [Iraqi regular soldiers] fight?

Radio 4 PM has an interview with a soldier that fled (and escaped). He said most of the ordinary soldiers would have fought with the right leadership, but the officers were the first to flee. Given they had no direction or orders, ordinary soldiers thought that was the best plan as well.

Of course this could be an excuse, but it had the ring of truth to it. Much more difficult to train a reliable officer corp, than ordinary soldiers. If true it does not bode well for a quick recovery of the army.

Anonymous said...

andrew - "a country that was defined not by geography or history or culture, but some british bloke called sykes about 100 years ago and so why should anyone be surprised if the citizens primarily identify themselves as kurds/shis/sunni"

Surely they should be celebrating their diversity, which as we all know is a strength, not a weakness?

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