Friday 18 July 2014

Putin's awkward fact

It's another terrible story about MH17 being shot down. As with any story the complexity is huge, who fired? Why was the plane there in the first place?

Neither the Ukranian nor Russian Governments have a record of honesty so little of what they say about the situation cuold be taken at face value.

The most salient fact is this though, the rebels have no airpower so the Ukranians have not been trying to shoot down aircraft. The Ukranians have been using airpower for groundstrikes, but as this is confirmed as a Surface to Air missle the only question has to be whether it was the rebels or russians themselves who fired.


andrew said...

Reported On today :

Ukrainians had no AA missiles in the area.

Rebel spokesperson announcing on Russian TV that a Ukrainian troop plane shot was down shortly after MH17 was shot down (no troop plane shot down).

Telephone recordings of Rebels and Russian handlers discussing the shot down aircraft and finding out one of the passengers had an Indonesian passport.

Pictures of AA missile installations in that area provided by Russians.

Rebels grabbing the black boxes and any other useful evidence and sending it to Russia before anyone else can get to the crash zone.

We don't know the passport number of the person who pushed the fire button.

Basically Russia has just committed an act of international terrorism that should get them put in the same box as Iran/Lybia etc.

Most govts know what they should do in principle.

The interesting thing will be what they will actually do.

Steve Austin said...

Not sure "Rusdia" has committed an act of terrorism.
There was no intent by anyone to shoot down a passenger airliner.

The US shot down a passenger plane in the Gulf. They were not suddenly terrorists. soviets shot down a Korean Airliner in the 1980s. They are both just a military power who committed a FUBAR .

Ukrainians need to fess up. Admit mistake. Point out this is a war zone.
Rusdia offers apologies, compensation and mediation in the dispute with Dutch representatives acting for the EU.

More likely is the ongoing denials on all sides.

Blue Eyes said...

Even if it was the Russians, it wasn't The Russians, just as The Russians have not been invading eastern Ukraine. It's very difficult for national powers to take action against non-national acts. See, for example, Syria, Afghanistan, et al.

It is not known whst the target of the missile but it must be pretty obvious that a commercial flight carrying Newcastle fans and HIV researchers to Asia was not on anyone's hit list. This is in contrast to Lockerbie, for example.

So in my mind if anyone uses this as s premise for international action it will be a mistake. I doubt anyone will, because at least now Dick Cheney is out of office.

It's a calamity and should be treated as such. No more, no less.

DJK said...


The question for me is why civilian airliners were still flying through a war zone in which several large (military transport) aircraft had already been shot down?

Blue Eyes said...

Yes and it looks like many other airlines had already started using avoiding routes.

Malaysian is apparently under severe financial pressure, so maybe the slightly shorter route saves money.

The EU has banned airlines from its airspace for less.

hovis said...

Indeed this has the fog of confusion with the possible hint of fish (as yet unconfirmed) But the question for me is always in such situations if deliberate cui bono? otherwise is cock up probable?

It appears all MH17 flights bar this one were flying far further south in recent days.

The immediate media reaction that it must have been a russian missile stinks of feeding a narrative instead of "tragedy wtf happened??" Never let a crisis go to waste?

If we are accepting hearsay internet evidence from "recorded" conversions and "Russian handlers" then do the reports that the Ukrainain military were involved at the Tower /and or the flight was shadowed by 2 Ukranian SU-27's would have equal weight?

I am saddened by unconvinced by all narratives so far

CityUnslicker said...

it is bad enought o sponsor wars, to give the loonies the keys to the highest tech weapons is even worse.

BE's point is well made, as non-state actors there can be no real punishment.

Steven_L said...

Are fire and forget missiles really all that 'high tech' in this day and age? Doesn't every tinpot country have a few?

There needs to be a response, both as a precaution and a deterent, all surface to air capability in the area should be annihilated.

andrew said...

BE's point is well made, as non-state actors there can be no real punishment.

... not so sure about that.

Iran hands money to Hezbollah, gets sanctioned and cut off.
Kuwait hands money to Taliban, nothing happens.

... I think it depends how many friends you have.

Electro-Kevin said...

The EU's awkward fact, more like.

It instigates a war. Bad things happen in war.

This sort of thing happens with chumps in charge.

PS - Just spoke to an American. Tanks being mass transported across the US with no explanation.

Keyboardist said...

"tanks being transported" - but in which direction? Perhaps all been recalled for having faulty ignition switches??

Electro-Kevin said...

Keyboardist - Perhaps they should send them in the direction of Baroness Ashton. She has a knack for ignitions.

hovis said...

very drole E-K

I found this interestin - seems no one has facts but repeat assertions as such.