Thursday 7 May 2015

Election 2015

Its time to put yourselves forward. The great day of reckoning is at hand.

And so that means the vote share predictor.

in the comments

1. Liberal Democrat seats
2. SNP seats
3. UKIP seats
4. Conservative seats
5. Who will be prime minister in 20 days time?

Iain Dale, the grandaddy of blogging, whose return to t'internet is still going on and his blog is as good as it ever was in the years before he quit blogging for broadcasting, has done a seat by seat election profile. 
It is really quite remarkable. The sort of things the party specialists do. Only they have much more data to rely on.

Mr Dale has done not just a uniform swing but had a look at incumbency benefits..scandals..political record. Local record. Voter makeup and such and predicted a winner for every seat. Its well worth a look here

He even revised all his seats with information from the latest Ashcroft polls and adjusted a few seats for late surges or local issues. I'm very surprised more hasn't been made of this by some of the broadcasters. it would certainly fill a few silences to look over it during election night.

The LBC man  predicts

*Conservative 276
Labour 267
Liberal Democrat 23
Plaid Cymru 4
Respect 1
Green 1
Sinn Fein 5
Independent 2

Giving no one a majority and no possibility of a coalition between anyone UNLESS Miliband is overthrown and a pro SNP candidate steps in. 
{50% of unite members are in Scotland are SNP voters. Len might decide he doesn't want half his members forming their own union and demand a left wing government take office.}

Not as outlandish as it may seem. Batty Hatty, who would become temporary leader if Miliband resigned or found that old dagger he used to carry about, plunged into his own back, , would sup with the devil for the title of First Labour Prime Ministress.

At the bottom is the final poll of polls for Wednesday.

So ..predict away .
Winner gets to go to Belgium and ask what do we do now?


273 (-34)


268 (+10)

Liberal Democrat

28 (-29)


2 (+2)


56 (+50)


1 (0)


22 (+1)



Blue Eyes said...

Tories 324
Lab 250
SNP 45 (natch)
LD 29
Green 1
Ukip 1 (Not South Thanet)

MyCalledItRightName said...

1. Liberal Democrat seats : dont know
2. SNP seats : 55
3. UKIP seats : 1-2
4. Conservative seats : dont know
5. Who will be prime minister in 20 days time? : Milliband, obviously.

650 seats.
595 if you exclude SNP.
595/2+1 = 299 seats for majority.

299 for Lab/Lib no probs.
299 for Con/Other no prob unless SNP vote against them.

Sorry C@U'ers - its a Labour gov and PM!!!!

Nick Drew said...

Impressive work by Dale at the macro level but less so on micro: glancing @ Croydon Central (which I know well) he fails to mention UKIP. Significance of this is that in the local elections, ward-by-ward, UKIP would have given Cr Cent to Labour, and DID give the borough council to Labour

so 'Cons narrow hold' based only on discussion of the return of errant Tories who voted Independent (Pelling of dubious memory) in 2010, isn't a penetrating analysis

but we shall see soon enough

Cameron pm in 20 days but maybe anarchy in 30!

Suff said...

So its a Left wing government which ever way you look at it.
I've a spare room if anybody's interested.

Nick Drew said...

bedroom tax for you, then

dearieme said...

Balls for PM with Wee Eck as his Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Blue Eyes said...

The Torygraph website has a seat-by-seat predict-a-map, but it seems to assume a fairly uniform Con to Lab swing in England, which is a bit odd.

Steven_L said...

I dunno, I'll go

Con: 280
Lab: 265
SNP: 49
Lib: 29
Green: 1

And what happens then I haven't the foggiest.

But I closed by short gilt futures as it was 400 of the 500 points I initially wanted already.

I might check out the prices of sterling options later this afternoon.

Steven_L said...

Then again, maybe it'll be a repeat of 2010 when, in the secrecy of the ballot box, more folk than expected vote for welfare handouts and there is a 5% swing back to labour giving Ed over 300 seats?

Whatever happens the real entertainment will be what happens after the results are in. Will Ed and Nicola make a 'deal'?

Suff said...

It's in Sweden. After having a right wing government lead them unscathed through the financial crisis, the Muppets decided to vote in the left. Deciding where to go next to keep ahead of the iron curtain.

Harman as PM and Sturgeon as Chancellor.
No point you chaps complaining, you'll all be shipped off to the Isle of Wight (for the sake of the children)

hovis said...

Fingers in the air guess:

Conservative 268
Labour 272
Liberal Democrat 32
SNP 48
Green 2
Other 25

Not sure how strong the SNP surge will be be.
UKIP to hold up and gain 1, and left field an extra Green as a suprise.

Not yet convinced the media narrative will pan out due to the silent majority and how disatisfied they really are. I await being contradicted by events.

Blue Eyes said...

I thought what happened in Sweden was that the right-wing vote was split between the governing party and a populist who appealed to grumpy old farts in coastal towns?

Jan said...

Conservative landslide....I don't know what you're all worried about!


Raedwald said...

I've still got an open bet at 46/1 £10 stake for Andy Burnham as next PM (from May 2014)and one for Boris at 9/1 from the same time.

Neither seems that absurd an option today.

Suff said...

As you say it wasn’t so much the rise of left but a collapse of the right. Like the UK, by ignoring the immigration question (the most important issue at dinner parties and now even the work place), they pushed a large percentage of their support to the Social Democrats. In true political fashion instead of facing up to the issue they just labelled the SD and their follower’s wacist. (This helped the SD no end and they took significant seats at the last election (from both sides but mainly the right. Now third largest party)).
Now that no coalition can be formed with the wacists, neither side can have a majority but the left decided to soldier on.
BTW Ukip are referred to as the wacist party in all news over hear. You have to explain to most Swedes that their main policy is independence from Europe. “The clues in the name”?

Sebastian Weetabix said...

I've a funny feeling a lot of quiet bat people will come out of the woodwork today and holding their disgruntled noses vote for the status quo. Carswell will come back, Farage won't win, Reckless will be out... a dozen more Tory seats than now, say. Clegg to win by a couple of hundred in Hallam. The Scottish Nasty Party grumbling about an MI5 fix as their ludicrous poll ratings don't turn into a landslide and they get 'only' 20 seats or so.

Blue Eyes said...

SW I agree, as usual. I have heard and overheard people (in London, and I in no way think that a few colleagues and people yacking on their mobiles is representative) saying that they think the coalition has, let's say, surprised on the upside. And while I appreciate that Dave seems to wind people up, Ed just does not come across as a leader, so I think a lot of people will quietly choose the least-worst option.

Suff said...

That should have Swedish Democrats obviously

Bill Quango MP said...

I think I'll plump for

Con 275
lab 271
lib 28
snp 48
green 1
ukip 2

PM - Miliband

Feels a bit of a guardian style guess.
But polling so far today says moves to Labour.

Bill Quango MP said...

And watch the video!

No one ever does watch these election round up vids. but the music is good.

Anonymous said...

Just been out Telling this morning. Pace is brisk as the "hoi polloi" to quote one man, will be voting.

Only people to engage are Labour who are "well organised" but they fear UKIP. Its a South Coast grumpy old farts in coastal towns sort of place.

Labour largest party but Tory PM after doing some excruciating deals.

Steven_L said...

Labour largest party but Tory PM after doing some excruciating deals.

You mean a great big, all encompassing, all of them against us kind of coalition?

Anonymous said...

UKIP mega in Kent, will surprise I reckon; mums, teachers, city workers.

Not at all as the media and left would have it.

Anonymous said...


Labour 2278
Tory 273
LD 21
SNP 50
Green 1
Others 22

Suff said...

As is usual I happened across this

Ignore the people at your peril.

Blue Eyes said...

The People?

It's interesting: UKIP basically achieved its main aim two years ago: Cameron has promised an in/out referendum. Not even UKIP promises withdrawal if it wins a majority in Parliament. Yet still UKIP exists, and "the people" continue to rail against Quisling Dave, and so on. So one must ask the question if it was not a referendum or instant withdrawal that "the people" want, then what is it? Oh, it's to poke "the establishment" in the eye.

Nobody is "ignoring" "the people". What the grumpy old farts need to accept is that they are not a suppressed majority.

Bill Quango MP said...

CU: Labour 2278

That will be the postal votes kicking in ?

Suff said...

You used Cameron and promised in the same sentence? I guess that must be cast in Iron then?
Right job done, Dave will see us right.
Indeed Grumpy old Farts aren't the Majority, where just the ones that pay for it.

Blue Eyes said...

Yes, us metro libs pay no tax at all!

Steven_L said...

Look on the bright side, C@W will have five years of poking fun at the Ed and Nicola show :)

Budgie said...

To add to the jollity:

Labour 284
Tory 270
LD 23
SNP 38
Green 2
Others 22

Budgie said...

BE, as far as I am aware Cameron is offering a re-negotiated EU deal (a la Wislon) and then a subsequent referendum. We should just have a referendum now (in fact, 4 years ago), so we can decide on the lived evidence, rather than the over-blown conjecture that will characterise Cameron's obsession to stay in.

Cameron is not trusted on this issue for the following reasons:
1. "Cast iron guarantee" Once in power he could have had a referendum on Lisbon, not to unsign it, but to strengthen his hand in subsequent negotiations with the EU.
2. He put off a referendum for 7 years, even if he is power to give it, even if he does give it.
3. He has consistently said that he would campaign to keep us in.

Suff said...


to lighten the mood

Electro-Kevin said...

I don't know what the result will be.

Except that if Labour hadn't lost all of its seats in Scotland Cameron would not have stood a chance against Miliband.

Not even with the economy recovering as it is.

That is how much he's pissed off his core support.

(The low number of seats for UKIP despite them having more than the LibDems and Greens combined is a travesty)

Electro-Kevin said...

Budgie - What would have made me vote Con and not UKIP is the following:

- a promise of a referendum on the EU forthwith. (The Scots got a more risky [for the UK] one in good haste and it wasn't even in the 2010 manifesto)

- a pause in EU immigration and the enactment of EU laws until the promised renegotiations had taken place.

Otherwise we know the promise is as empty as the deliberately overhyped one on Lisbon and bringing migration down to tens of thousands.

As in my previous comment - without their losses to the SNP Britain would have a Labour majority over the Tories yet again.

No outright election win since 1992.

That speaks volumes.

Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Timbo614 said...


Have tried hard not to listen to too much over the last few weeks but it seems to me nothing much has changed, no-one is offering much change so nothing changes :)

So Timbo predicts:

Conservative Majority but slim in coalition with the LibDems:

Cons 295
Labs 260
Libs 26 (Disaster)
Ukip 12 (Smiling)
SNP 35

Others: who cares?

Anyone staying up late to watch? I probably will.

Bill Quango MP said...

I will.

Blue Eyes said...

Not committing one way the other, to staying up or not.

I have done my bit for the war effort, and am now cooking food and drinking wine.

andrew said...

I predict

Conservative 285
Labour 258
Liberal Democrat 35
SNP 45
Green 1
Other 22

and here is the interesting bit...

Either side could form a majority

Bill Quango MP said...

Exit poll is astounding.
I will be surprised if it is correct.

Timbo614 said...

First result is astounding if your name is Nigel. +19% wow.

@BE drinking doesn't stop you staying up - just makes it harder!

Steven_L said...

If the exit poll is correct I hope BE put his money where his mouth was.

And I'll be glad I closed my short gilt futures on Wednesday and steered clear of the fx markets!

Blue Eyes said...

SL: I am long the jobs and property markets.

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