Monday 3 August 2015

More interesting data for those wondering why Calais is such an issue, for now and the next 30 years...

A picture tells a thousand words so I am told, so here is my three thousand work essay on immigration:

The nub of it is to me, that the there is first map shows net GNI per capita today. As can be seen, sub Saharan Africa is a disaster, with no average wealth. With so little wealth, it is hard to accumulate any more as there is little to go around and little investment relative to the population.
No wonder the poor people there are fleeing to the UK, Afghanistan and Pakistan are not far behind.
Then we see that the projected growth of the world is all concentrated in African and South Asia. So not only are people poor but the affected Countries may well be doubling their populations in the next 15 years
Finally the sheer numbers from the UK. Sub Saharan Africa was until very recently a low population area considering its size - especially relative to Europe. But now we have reached the point of inexorable growth, with a billion young people due to grow up in the next 15 to 20 years.
They have nothing to live for where they are, so they will leave for a better future. The best place to go is to Europe, in terms of geography and economic chances.
So come they will. My own view is not wildly popular yet, but my feeling is this challenge is akin to that of the end of the Roman Empire and the dark ages. Massive population movements could overwhelm a more advanced civilisation through sheer weight of numbers. The Visigoths and other after all sort to be Roman, but could not be - it was rarely their intention to destroy what they found.
In today's world perhaps there is the technology to prevent this, but it would go against all of our current values to be so callous with a wave of humanity approaching unarmed.
Instructive too is the map below of the current wars - indeed how may of these are really driven by population issues such access to food, water and jobs. You could even make a case that the rise of religious fundamentalism is linked to the increasing poverty of the Countries affected due to massive population growth:

And finally, a last graph for the Bishop's and do-gooders who say we must help where we can. The people coming to us in the future have very different behaviours to us - the world map by homicides shows us how much value a human life has in different cultures:



Nick Drew said...

Interesting (a little too interesting, actually)

wonder what pale blue wars France + Spain are engaged in? (3rd map)

CityUnslicker said...

This is a more in-depth one. Bar narco war ins South america the population/conflict meme is very strong.

Blue Eyes said...

CU I have discovered that for a moderstely successful blog post you needn't actually post any actual words ;-)

It is interesting stuff. "The West"'s wealth of course is not based on natural resources etc. so whether places can maintain their good living standards will largely depend on whether institutions can survive a huge influx. If a society can survive a huge influx of population and get them to be productive then potentially it would be a boon.

I won't presume what other readers' views on our and other Western countries' capacity to absorb newcomers is and may be in the future.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

An acquaintance of mine was a drug addict and all round tosser engaging in petty crime, and couldn't see a corner without wanting to cut it. You could say he suffered from an inability to defer gratification. Having dual citizenship (thanks to his father being a Canuck) he decided to move to Canada and make a fresh start. And guess what? Within a few months he came back to the UK withh his tail between his legs, on the run from drug dealers he owed money. As his stepfather observed, "the trouble with him is, wherever he goes, he's there"

Which points up an interesting problem about mass immigration from third world shitholes. They bring their attitudes, cultures and problems with them. Which is why chunks of West Yorkshire are now as corrupt as Mirpur and why drug resistant TB is rampant in East London.

We are entitled to defend our culture and our health. It is a mystery to me why we do not. We are surrounded by a moat and we have all the benefits of modern technological civilisation. And we are full up.

The answer to the question posed by Blue Eyes, can we maintain our good living standards in the face of a huge influx is 'no'. But you shouldn't worry about living standards, they are fairly trivial. It is the survival of our civic, tolerant, democratic culture you should worry about.

Anonymous said...

"If a society can survive a huge influx of population and get them to be productive then potentially it would be a boon."

Was it a boon for the Native Americans, or the aborigines, when productive people arrived? It meant near-extinction - and actual extinction for many.

The following is, in today's society, almost unsayable. Can you name a single area, in any country, which has been improved by the arrival of large numbers of people of African descent? I can't. It's not lack or resources making Africa a basket case.

And while it's almost unsayable, that doesn't mean people can't see what's in front of their eyes. Liberals (and cuckservatives) take good care, especially when their kids are school age, not to live in such areas.

Anonymous said...

btw, that population graph is why this, now, is the moment when the Sibylline books are being presented to us. If we don't stop it now, how will we stop it when ten million are here? We won't.

BE, you really should read The Camp Of The Saints - it's available as a pdf.

"And when the thousand years are ended, Satan will be released from his prison, and will go forth and deceive the nations which are in the four corners of the earth, Gog and Magog, and will gather them together for the battle; the number of whom is as the sand of the sea. And they went up over the breadth of the earth and encompassed the camp of the saints, and the beloved city"

Nick Drew said...

@BE, yes a good picture every time

CityUnslicker said...

we wouold be wise I think to pay good money to Government s in the region to stop their people from travelling - hence our foreign aid could come to some good use at last!

whether it could be made to work is another thing, but they and we need hope in those countries.

It's that or us brought to their level.

Or a global war with a death roll that will be similar to a nucelar winter prediction of years ago.

Anonymous said...

"Or a global war with a death roll that will be similar to a nucelar winter prediction of years ago"

Or you could just stop all the boats, towing them back or sinking them if necessary. It would not take many such episodes to stop the exodus, and then we could avoid global war. They come because we show a lack of will to stop them.

Once again, WWID - What Would Israel Do?

Electro-Kevin said...

This will not end until we are all brought down to the same level in standards of living and standards of civic probity.

In other words - that Britain becomes so shit it is not worth moving to.

It is as it is, and the plug has been well and truly pulled, but a couple of questions:

Do we have a say in this and if not then why do we need expensive government to do it ?


Of the original question. I understand that we may have to import people but why isn't immigration on a points basis ?

This is cultural and economic suicide.

Electro-Kevin said...

Blue Eyes - Yes. Motivating people to be productive could be a boon (if past experiences are to go by we have race riots and crime waves to get through first)

About the only way for it to be a boon is if we become a nation of slaves.

Electro-Kevin said...

... if we're already on a trajectory of impoverishment how does filling our country with uneducated poor people do anything to help that ?

Y Ddraig Goch said...


"If a society can survive a huge influx of population and get them to be productive then potentially it would be a boon."

I happened to see Sky News yesterday, interviewing some would-be illegal
immigrants in the Calais area. Their responses were at the "me go England"
level of fluency. Unfortunately, their accents were so strong, that Sky felt
it necessary to add sub-titles, so that native English speakers might
understand. However, even then, the most common sub-title was the single
word "unintelligible".

In a country with an official unemployment rate of 1.8 million, what
possible use do we have for unskilled labourers whose grasp of English
would be worryingly poor in a 3 year old?

What would it take to make these people productive?

Blue Eyes said...

Lots of people saying that Britain is too weak to make productive use of lots of new people. That suggests two things to me:

1) beef up our education and training systems, and enable our infrastructure to adapt to new demands; you don't hear retailers complaining that they have too many customers - why do skools 'n 'ospitals?

2) as CU rightly points out, let's try and help the source countries be less shit.

Maybe we could, I don't know, do some supply-side reforms in private and public sectors. Maybe introduce pupil-based funding and allow people to set up new state schools in their area if they think there's demand?

Maybe we should spend money on building up some of the least-developed countries so there is less of a gap between the best and the worst places to be born?

Oh! Wait!

Anonymous said...

"let's try and help the source countries be less shit"

"Take up the white man's burden
And reap his old reward,
The blame of those ye better,
The hate of those ye guard"

In Kipling's day people had families of six or seven and Britain had plenty of money and soldiers. We can't do imperialism any more.

"you don't hear retailers complaining that they have too many customers"

That depends on how many of the customers are looting the goods and killing the staff. How are Croydon retailers doing?

Nick Drew said...

funnily enough, anon@5:38, Croydon is enjoying a bit of a boom just now thanks for asking!

property, too -

Anonymous said...

ND - until 'the fire next time'!

Electro-Kevin said...

The original comment was about the Daily Mail and consistency. Well it would be consistent. It is a conservative paper after all.

Will someone tell which part of this blog is conservative ? I feel like I'm intruding on a lower sixth debate.

The answer to ever improving growth and prosperity was staring us in the face all the time. Just throw open the borders and let everyone come.

As regards poor parts of the world. I don't think anyone in the west would object to billionaires in mineral rich countries redistributing their wealth among their populations - in fact we'd rather they did. But they won't.

No. There is only one end to all this. It stops when Britain is as shit as the places people run from. (Or if there is no more welfare to run to)

Electro-Kevin said...

As for beefing up training and education we've been asking for it for years. The Tories won't even open new grammars. Grade inflation has been damaging our standards for decades.

Y Ddraig Goch said...


"Lots of people saying that Britain is too weak to make productive use of lots
of new people."

That's not what I said. I pointed out that the official unemployment
rate is 1.8 million so the phrase you were looking for is that Britain can't
make productive use of lots of its existing people. Why would you
believe that it can use lots more? Of course, if there were some way to
carefully select the immigrants we admit to ensure that they were net tax payers
and job creators then it might be different - but apparently such a thing is
completely and utterly impossible, as well as racist. And probably fattening.

"1) beef up our education and training systems,"

That has already been done - and it didn't work. 'A' level, GCSE and SATs
results have risen relentlessly for decades. They are now at an all-time
high. Tony Blair's top three political priorities were "education, education,
education" and as the results show, he succeeded. Yet we still have 1.8
million unemployed and countless working people dependent on "in-work"
benefits because they are so poorly paid. So "beefing up" education
demonstrably doesn't work.

By the way, think about what it would mean to "beef up education" for the
illegals arriving from Calais. They appear to have the educational attainment of
a pre-school child - so they are at least a decade of full time education away
from even 'A' level standard - which itself would put them in the bottom 60%
of UK education output. And what would even that modest achievement cost?

"you don't hear retailers complaining that they have too many customers - why
do skools 'n 'ospitals?"

Seriously? I have to explain this?

Retailers take money from customers in return for stuff. Schools and
hospitals give stuff away for free. At least, it's free to the person
receiving it. If retailers were given a bucket of cash by HMG and told to
serve whoever turns up then - surprise! - they would soon be complaining about
too many customers as well.

Try to make an honest assessment of what a typical illegal immigrant brings to
this country. Don't forget to include all the stuff that immigration
apologists habitually conceal - FGM, HMG's expensive "PREVENT" strategy,
trendy lefties covering up child abuse, unemployment, low wages,
over-crowding, benefit fraud, electoral fraud ... then try to explain why the
rest of us should want all that.

Electro-Kevin said...

YDG - I think BE and CU have been winding us up. I took it hook, line and sinker.