Tuesday, 18 August 2015

Paddy Power pays out on Corbyn

Noel Gallagher ?

Bookmaker Paddy Power have paid out on Jeremy Corbyn being elected leader of the Labour party. 
This is a surprise. the ballots have barely even gone out. There are still weeks to go.

Yet the betting company decided that there wasn't any point waiting as Corbyn was so far ahead; on every opinion poll and every popularity indicator, the unions backing, that it was a forgone conclusion he would romp home.They have their own data too. The actual sums being waged. Which are mostly going on Corbyn.
And of course, by paying out on Corbyn, they make his victory even more of a certainty.
So justifying their decision to pay out early. 

 Describing the MP for Islington North’s success in the campaign as the “biggest upset in political betting history”, Paddy Power is so certain that Corbyn will win that it is paying out £100,000, even though polling closes on 10 September.

So. it really does look like its happening. Syriza is coming to Britain. The false dawn of the Mili-Brand Youtube will be buried under the arrival of the real deal. 

What the exact effect of this will be, we can never be sure. Likely it will mean disaster for labour. But that is not certain. It won't take much of a downturn to kick of the austerity marchers again. If teenage Israelis are kidnapped and killed again, who knows how that nation will react? Another 'invasion' of Hamas? 
Tory sleeze hasn't had much of an outing since 2010. We are long overdue a major scandal. 
The EU referendum will put severe strain on Cameron and his whips. Even harder for him with a lukewarm Labour leader instead of one who would not even consider allowing a referendum. Corbyn might fancy giving the Scots an alternative to the SNP's fanatically pro EU support. 

If Jeremy Corbyn really is Labour leader it might not be quite the dream that Tory strategists believe. 
Labour infighting is certain. but it will add unpredictability to current areas of certainty.

But we can know for sure is that if Corbyn is leader, its all over for the Greens. Why vote for a veggie nut cutlet, folk festival cafe form of socialism when you can have the real raw  red meat, dripping with blood,  hard left socialism of the streets?


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dearieme said...

UKIP might do well out of it: there may be old-fashioned Labour folk who don't fancy a commie as leader.

DJK said...

As others have observed, UKIP and the Corbyites have a lot in commmon, both wanting a return to the real, onshored politics of the 1970s. We'll see, but I really don't think the Tories can congratulate themselves on Labour's choice. As the last few weeks have shown, plenty of people are attracted to conviction politics.

rwendland said...

What's this about raw red dripping meat? Corbyn is a vegetarian! "Corbyn's favourite restaurant is Gaby's diner, in the West End"

Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Electro-Kevin said...

If you view politics as you do sport then I might see why this is exciting.

Right now I'd have thought, Labour are off the scene let's get away from the middle ground and start doing some real Conservatism. Like bonfire of the quangos, scrap the Human Rights Act, get tough on bens and immigration...

Dick the Prick said...

As has been widely reported and assumed, Corbyn's probably unelectable - it would be churlish to think that a group of junior staffers haven't been tasked with reading the last 30 years of Hansard to identify his fuckwittery and also go over any and all B-roll available to see who he's been to bed with.

That said, none of the other 3 were electable either and if you're gonna lose anyway, may as well get some profit out of it by either going down fighting in order to regenerate afterwards rather than just boring their base to tears.

It's stoopid but it's logically stoopid.

Great post, thanks for sharing, thumbs up etc etc (has etiquette changed?)

Blue Eyes said...

I am not certain Corbyn will be leader, despite the polls, echo-chamber, etc.. Whoever wins, the party will enjoy some serious bickering. The Corbynistas will be like those 45er tossers in Scotland. I.e. childish losers.

What the Tories mustn't do is cede the centre ground. 2020 must be a wipeout for Lolbour and the LibDems.

andrew said...

partially au contraire

I expect massive lib dem resurgance - those too much to the left of the centre ground to consider con and to close to the centre to vote Corbyn wont be going anywhere else.

Domocracy in action.

david morris said...

Comments 1-12..........

Are you trying to emulate ZaNuLab (that was) by rubbing the noses of your established readership in the gloriousness of diversity ?

I think we should be told

Kind regards

Jan said...

The end of New Labour...hoooooraaay. Perhaps TB and Mandelsohn will finally lie down and (metaphorically) die. Perhaps Labour will go back to it's roots and kick out all the Coopers/Balls/Milliwhatsits etc and other hangers on who were only there because they love the sound of their own voices.

dearieme said...

In the end I didn't sign up to Labour to vote for Corvid; it would have been hard to vote for a "Jeremy". It would be even harder to vote for someone who called his son "Sebastian".

Anonymous said...

Corby will win by a mile, but then get almost Farage-like treatment (minus the rentamob physical attackers who'll mostly be Corbynistas) for two reasons

a) 75% top rate income tax - a policy that would have been right-wing in the 1960s. The rich like their money.

b) "not sound on Israel" - I can see some wealthy Labour donors having more than one reason to dislike his policies

Dick the Prick said...

I think we should all spare a thought for Chukka, our British Obama, our hope, our future. I'm....i'm just...i'm just so upset that his career has absolutely died in the steaming pile of shit from whence it came.

Anonymous said...

He certainly had an even better name than Barack.

dearieme said...

"Chukka": you can see why he didn't try to make a career in cricket.

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