Thursday, 1 October 2015

A nasty end game


Map of Saudi Arabia

The House of Saud, for all the wrong reasons a bedrock of Western support down the years, has some major internal splits that are showing publicly.

The new King had to usurp others to gain his place and then put in line his son to take over, so pushing aside other parts of the clan. (The House founder had 43 sons! it makes medieval dynastic troubles in Europe look like tic-tac-toe in comparison).

Also the new King, Salman, has had to deal with wars in Yemen and Syria, the struggle of how to fight ISIS whilst also fighting Iran and of course the collapse in the Oil price. Last week Saudi Arabia tapped the bond market for the first time in years and has repatriated $73 billion.

Domestic expenses of the wars and policy to retain oil share through low pricing are terrible for the State finances. Plus the new King is very conservative, further pushing the Wahhabi's position in the Country where it is in reality a very destabilising force as it is everywhere else in the world.

Recent events in Mecca, sad as they are, do not further inspire confidence in the soundness of the Saudi state.

However, a dynastic dispute and fight would be a very bad thing, as much as the House of Saud is not a very nice regime at all, what would replace it would be similar in nature to Isis and other countries that have experienced power change since the 'Arab Spring' have fared very badly.

Saudi Arabia though, money aside, does seem like a failed state in waiting and what a mess that would be for the rest of the world to come to term

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

You know I think I'd let the bastards get a taste of what they've exported all over the world since the late 70s. Let them feel what its like to live in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Chechnia, Syria and Iraq. Let it blow back. We'll need to step in to save the Jordanians and some of the clients that aren't too bad.

Nick Drew said...

Oman's a very nice place

and Qatar is rather important ...

Gordon the Fence Post Tortoise said...

Look at The Siege of Mecca in 1979.

About time IS found a Mahdi....

Professor Pizzle said...

Gordon,

It's astonishing that episode is not more well known. Otherwise educated people look at me blankly when I mention it. Some even claim I'm making it up. It doesn't exist for them because there wasn't any news footage, and they've never read about it in Chomsky.

I think the main piece is bang on. Saudi is doomed.

Interesting that the Syrians and their Russian/Iranian allies are bombing the rebels, but not ISIS. Kind of makes you think they're not that scared of them in the long run.

Anonymous said...

The purpose of the Syrian part of the IS is to persuade the rest of the world that rebels against Assad are all "terrorists".
He seeded it by releasing hundreds of Islamists from jail and has attacked it as little as possible.
Assad's real enemies are the Muslim Brotherhood.

Don Cox

john cheshire said...

They're all muslims, they're all bound for hell. I'm not convinced we need to make their journey easy.

Steven_L said...

The middle east, literally the one part of the world I have no desire whatsoever to visit.

Gordon the Fence Post Tortoise said...

Prof Puzzle

Mahdis come and Mahdis go (Kitchener / Omdurman etc.) The siege of Mecca was epic and the Saudis have moved mountains to play it down - really.... The official toll seems - let's say - hardly credible.

Since Ibn Saud 'n the crew booted Mo's supposed direct descendants (Kings of Jordan) out of Mecca and clawed to the top of the heap in fighting that one can see might be inspirational to IS goons - and paid Saddam to bait and torment the hated Shias of Iran - their fragmentation / comeuppance was only a matter of time.

This is serious, murderous tribal shit sandwich - Islam being the bread bit.

hovis said...

Don Cox: I havent seen the proprtion of where the Russian effort is headed but even if true no worse than the duplicitous spin put out by the Turks and the US about Turkish airforce attacking ISIL when over 90% of sorties were against the Kurds - the only effective opposition to ISIL before the Russians started helping Assad out.

I would maintain the US position has been found out - they never wanted to destroy ISIL and it is politically useful and would prefer it to exist as a bogeyman for other adventures - as well as the fact it is supported by their Saudi and Qatari "allies"..

Anonymous said...

A pestilence is all that, Saudi Arabia begets to the world.

It is way pas high time that, the murderous zealots who peddle their wares and poisons across not only Europe but about all the globe causing untold death and misery. It is time, the House of Saud was smashed and smashed hard for these devils made a pact with the wraithes of Wahhabism and the Theocrats to not make trouble in the peninsula, the flip side of the deal was, KSA to support terror and proselytization of Wahhabism throughout the world.

Time to get rid of bad shit.

DJK said...

I think most people here will be cheering on the fall of the house of Saud. Of course, what comes after will be nasty but at least there will be no pretence about just how evil yhey are.

Sackerson said...

Didn't the victorious son kill all his full/half brother rivals in the old days of the Moghuls - or was it the Ottomans?

Oswald Thake said...

"The history of a savage tribe and a primitive superstition."

Suff said...

As we now have more social workers than armed forces, shouldn't we put them all on boats and send them as a task force. Surly it's only a matter of sitting down and talking about it in a non offensive way. While we are at it we could include all the feminists, gay rites activists.....as I don't think they're fully represented in that region.
We could call it the children's crusade?

Anonymous said...

Suff,
excellent idea.
I would even pay a special one-off tax if levied to fund such an expedition on the condition that the task-force was the largest possible as this should maximise the outcome.
I understand 'Crusade' to be somewhat non-'PC' so would suggest the title of 'buggers muddle.'