Thursday 26 November 2015

Recession predictions post Osborne plans

From various sources:

RBS economists: 2017/18

RBC Capital: 2018

Jones Lang Lasalle: 2017

HSBC Economist forecast: 2018/19

Of course economics forecasts are tomorrow's chip paper. But the UK Government has staked its financial credibility on their being no recession.

With one, the Country's finances will be very quickly back in the mire of 2008/12 in terms of its overall deficit.

Considering the Tory domination of the political stage, why did they make such a bold gamble that could well lose them the next election with the economic credibility in ruins a la 1997?


Electro-Kevin said...

And when there is another recession it will be exponentially worse than the last one.

There are more people are eligible for benefits. We are also likely to face an energy famine.

Government debt is being added to @ £1.5bn a day as it is.

Steven_L said...

Since when did the government ever predict recessions?

Anyway, not to worry, because the Swiss are showing the way to Nirvana - negative interest rates. Stage 1 will just be deposits get clipped and mortgage rates stay low. Stage two will be deposits get whacked and cash is dolled out to people with mortgages.

Paid off your mortgage? Take out another one then or lose out! The money supply will never shrink and house prices will continue their upward march. Folk stashing their cash 'under the mattress' can be prevented by simply issuing very few banknotes. Not enough bank deposits to pay out the voters? The central bank will step in.

You read it here first.

Nick Drew said...

hey, this is George 'Lucky' Osborne we're talking about here!

Suff said...

Tomorrow's chip papers indeed. Isn't this the same boy that staked his financial reputation on maintaining the triple A rating?

Steven-L 100% correct. if the people are too scared to spend or borrow then it's the governments responsibility to do it on their behalf. First they have to kill cash which they are doing a brilliant job of here in Sweden. All bill payments in cash have to be done at the post office at an extortionate rate, a ridiculous amount of paperwork and of course during socialist working hours.
All cash registers in shops are government registered and checked and most are now automated so won't accept a note that has been creased.
Any building work done on your property is open to tax back so of course everything is registered ( but strangely the hourly rates went up over night)
Once cash is worthless because you can't spend it, just watch how far they can take negative rates and of course there will be a "one off" windfall tax on mortgage profits to balance the equation.

Demetrius said...

Perhaps Cameron and Osborne are going for broke, or maybe just dangerously over confident as Labour's troubles increase. This is not going to end well.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps Cameron and Osborne are going for broke

Probably correct but I assume you did not mean it that way.

There is always more QE

dustybloke said...

Because George Osborne has not a care about what is best for the country.

His tiny particle of a brain thinks that what is required of him is to defeat Labour every single day on every single issue.

Thus are my worst fears realised. The prescence of a nutty Marxist as Opposition leader therefore requires him to adopt far left policies.

He is making the GE of 2012 a close run thing, but fortunately for George, ignorance is bliss. Unfortunately for us, ignorance on the part of a Chancellor, as Gordon quite graphically showed, is not the best qualification for that office, however well it works for other ministers.

Anonymous said...

This is not a Conservative Govt. I doubt we shall ever see one again in the true sense.
Furthermore it occurred to me this morning that there may well be a significant political reason to buy/head off discontent, protest and general pissed-offness amongst the proles. Entirely possible that Cameron/Osborne have 2017 EU Referendum in mind.
Titter ye not.

andrew said...

Well, if they do crash and burn you will see corbyn trying to
a) not make the deficit worse in the face of a recession
b) trying to borrow the money.

Good luck with either of those.

Electro-Kevin said...

Anonymous - We will get another Conservative government. In a few centuries after the caliphate has had its reformation.