Tuesday 12 January 2016

Oil Price Forecasters Ahoy!

Remember this little table of tripe we scoffed at back in November?  (Click to enlarge, Elby.)
Well they are at it again.  Here's how the highly-remunerated eejits at the investment banks' analyst departments see the price of US crude oil (usually lower than the Brent price, though not much so just now) for 1Q and 2Q 2016.  Yup, that's this quarter and next.
                   1Q          2Q
Barclays       29           33    (go Barclays!  - you stand half a chance ...)

SocGen        32           38
JPMorgan     33           49
ING              35           40
BoA              36           42
Morgan S      38           43
Citi              40           44
Std Chrt       44           53
Goldmans     45           50
Deutsche      45           50
Cr.Suisse       47          56
UBS              50          50   (also 4Q last year - what is it with UBS and 50 ??)
Yes, all of them see steady rises through the year (except the rather quirky UBS, who perhaps don't keep changing their numbers  - because they believe in their methodology, maybe ...  nah, silly).  Then again, all of them forecast prices to rise steadily through 2015, and none of them was even close, really.  

If any of these people are right, it will only be on the stopped-clock principle.  I have their numbers for 3Q and 4Q, too - and who knows, we may return to them later in the year.  Now, remind me: how are things panning out just at the minute ..?



Anonymous said...

...with Iran about to come back on stream and a lot of the current demand coming from people buying oil and keeping it on boats, do you still think we are in undershoot territory?

dearieme said...

There's a fine opportunity here for HMG to raise some revenue by increasing fuel duty, and claiming that it's all about stabilising the forecourt price of diesel and petrol. It might also give them the chance to cut fuel duty shortly before the next General Election. Irresistible!

BE said...

I was surprised George didn't do that in November. He could have linked it to the abandoned police cuts and got away with it.

CityUnslicker said...

As the dollar strengthens oil price weakens - yet another bearish indicator.

Although, the quicker the price falls the more disruption to US shale output and so, to some extent the faster the glut will come to an end and a re-balance occur.

I was told by tin foil hatter yesterday that Iran and Russia are planning to engineer an event that will act as a geopolitical break on incessant falling...

hovis said...

CU interesting @the tinfoil bit - I always thought it was the US engineerung events in those type of narratives?

Bit like the one about the Saudi's great scheme to not lower production was them trying to break Russia/ US Shale / Iran (*)

(*) Select nation of your choice dependent on prejudice and egocentricity to fit with your own views.

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