Tuesday, 23 February 2016

Day one of the Euro Ref; huge cannons of Remain looking too strong



So Day One of the first full Referendum campaign in review:

- Cameron slams Boris in the Commons, able to deploy all his troops and skills from the front bench

- The Pound crashes as traders see a quick buck to be made, literally and this is universally portrayed as the markets considered reaction to Brexit

- No 10 musters thirty six FTSE bosses to write in the Times in support of their low wage Polish and Romanian staff (not sure they put it quite like this but anyway...)

One day, three huge blows. I note the BBC too is way offside for Remain.

As much as I wish it, I can't see Leave having a hope at the moment; the regiments behind Remain are awesome in comparison to Leave.

However, there are still events, a large migrant crisis in the Spring/Summer may swing things but for now I would expect the polls to move back to 60/40 Remain.

27 comments:

Electro-Kevin said...

Remain will win not because of their cannons but because the question itself is dishonest.

Ever-closer-political-Union (forget what Cameron promises - political union is what we will get.)

This means that come the referendum we are actually voting for a British government OR an EU government.

In all practicality we can't have both. The British Parliament is reduced to a mere provincial council with as much power of veto as Portugal and its tiny population.

"Do you want to be ruled by Britain or ruled by the EU ?" is the only honest question that can be put to us but we aren't going to be asked it, are we !

As for cannons ?

"A few honest men can defeat many"

Cromwell

Bill Quango MP said...

It does look impossible. And it also emerged yesterday that Cameron has mobilised the civil service behind Remain. That's another 120,000 crack, or perhaps,1st line..well okay, Conscript troops he has to deploy.

And the forces of Leave are not currently looking like being led by someone used to whipping superior numbers.

We can only hope that LEAVE will find a strangely neglected, unshielded thermal exhaust port, about the size of a womp rat....

david morris said...

well well, disappointing the previous comments are so downbeat.Early days boys, early days :

In peace there's nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour'd rage;

& in the meantime, enjoy this :

http://order-order.com/2016/02/23/no-10-loses-half-its-ftse-support-since-daves-deal/

kind regards

Nick Drew said...

Chins up, chaps, it's that General Election 2015 deja vu all over again!

I'm with @David Morris on this one (welcome, sir!) but let me first add to the gloom: George Galloway, does anything more need to be said? the lowest form of life on the planet - and if Farage can't see that, he's a bigger ++++ than I thought

and yes, we are starting to see the full wrath of the establishment

and yes, the would-be lead-Leavers are as fractious and factional a bunch of buffoons as could be feared (has the worthy Richard North ever seen a potential ally he doesn't instantly despise?)

and yes, voters are strongly and shamefully inclined to back the winning side when it's really obvious one side has truly, definitively won

BUT

- 4 months is a helluva long time (I accept this can cut either way)
- Events are brewing
- that Sovereignty Bill has the potential to be a pretty satisfatory take-away in its own right (see yesterday)
- Boris could be baited and bullied just a little too far
- there is scope for 'something' to go viral

game not over yet

Bill Quango MP said...

What is wrong with North?
Why can't he even spell compromise ?
He's waited almost his whole adult for this moment. He surely won't get another one.

Wellington never lost a battle because he never alienated his own coalitions.
{almost never}

His real skill was in making the most use out of even the most useless parts of his often ill assembled, untrained, traitorous, forces.

Jan said...

As Nick says, early days......nil desperandum..

Steven_L said...

George Galloway, does anything more need to be said? the lowest form of life on the planet

But he's a likeable lowest form of life. And that might be important. There will be a load of respectable, but not very likeable, people from different ends of the political spectrum all sharing a platform. Much like in the Scots referendum, where 'sharing a platform with the tories' spelled the end of labour for the foreseeable.

Whereas the likeable rogues of politics, Galloway, Farage, Boris etc will get to share a platform to pull them to pieces and insult them all.

Perhaps all the end of all this, in the home counties, Cameron will be the tory who 'shared a platfrom with labour', wheras Boris can keep Galloway and Farage at arms length whilst egging them on to do their worst to Dave.

Nick Drew said...

well there we go, you see - SL can even find upside to Galloway!

North - what a case-study in human psychology that man is

seems as if the only way you can get him onside is to enter his room bowing and scraping, oh mighty North, ye of the greatest insight and strategic wisdom known to mankind, praise be to you and your ineffable Flexit, I submit unquestioningly to your guidance upon all matters and at all times ...

dangerous thing, all that thinking and research he does

mike fowle said...

Sadly, that does seem to be true about Richard North. Such a pity...

hovis said...

a picture paints a thousand words ..

[src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/f4/ef/3e/f4ef3e1c8b3eb52f7cc860d68ec7da6c.jpg"/]

Bill Quango MP said...

Mr North always reminds me of the story of 1850s US officer Braxton Bragg.

When on frontier duty, a post to which he had been relegated because no-one could put up with his fractious nature, Bragg was appointed both company commander and quartermaster. A usual situation as small forts had few officers and roles were often doubled.

As commander of the company he made a requisition upon the quartermaster, who was also himself, for something he wanted.
As quartermaster he declined to fill the requisition, and endorsed on the back of it his reasons for so doing.
As company commander he responded to this, urging that his requisition called for nothing but what he was entitled to, and that it was the duty of the quartermaster to fill it.
As quartermaster he still persisted that he was right.

Bragg was highlighting his situation in which his duty compelled him to act only as permitted by regulations.

Bragg finally went to the post commander for resolution of the problem who declared,

“My God, Mr. Bragg, you have quarreled with every officer in the army, and now you are quarreling with yourself."

Jock McJock said...

There is a huge northern force sitting there...waiting.

Covert SNP support for Leave could tip the balance as tactical voting by the northern "subsidy scroungers" would be in their best interest. You want to leave. They want to leave. The objective is the same but the question is different.

If the Leave campaign offer SNP the chance to go, then its a done deal. No more EU and no more jocks. Double benefit.

Nick Drew said...

PS the £ didn't crash yesterday! - as a cursory glance at the graphs will show

amazing how Project Fear operates

Sebastian Weetabix said...

Such is the general disenchantment with the establishment that all these endorsements from these grand panjandrums may be counter-productive.

As for Galloway, he is indeed a dreadful rogue with some dubious associates, but he is sound on two matters: Scottish independence & the EU. And he is a terrific public speaker. Better to have him outside the EU pissing in, so to speak.

Moose said...

Say what you will about Dr North, but he has the plan. The only workable plan.
And he has tried to share it with the leavers, and they have rejected it. And now, as he foretold. they have no answers.
Why should he change his position to fit in with them, when THEY are determined to lose this referendum?
OK he is abrasive, but only if you are really stupid (sorry guys, I suppose that means YOU!)
Lets at least discuss his plan........ because there is no other credible plan out there. Do you want to win this, or not?

Nick Drew said...

Welcome to C@W, Moose. FYI, in the past I have cited the good Doctor's work here, and lauded him as the man who seems to know most (technically) about what's going on, and defended him against those many who spit on his name - and I follow his blog to keep myself informed

as you say, he (probably, so far as I can judge) has the best worked-out plan - and indeed process, because he's constantly upgrading it

but as I read him, almost daily, I cannot fail to be gobsmacked by the sheer % of his blog material that is picking fights with, well, just about everyone: this is (sad to say) just plain unhinged

he likes to talk Strategy (- as do we here at C@W, we're students of the subject -) but:

(a) just how strategically necessary is his infinitely detailed plan? (that's a genuine question on my part; and I know exactly what North's own view on that is; and I hear 'Remainders' attacking the lack of a Leavers' plan all the time, which seems like confirmation of his view but ... hey, his plan exists! & how much good is it doing ??) Are voters really swayed decisively by that kind of thing? My observation is, the debate is conducted on an arm-waving basis, bandying naked, unsupported assertions - and that the voter doesn't really expect anything else, nor is inclined to research which side really has the right of the matter

(b) how much expert time & energy have he and his band expended on it (ans: an unbelievable amount), that might have been deployed to better ends? - e.g. coming up with some seriously telling one-liners, slogans, jokes, viral messages, memes etc - not, frankly, Dr N's forte but maybe a whole lot more useful

(c) as BQ says: what kind of strategist goes around pissing on (and off) everyone on his own side? OK, if you are in absolute charge, maybe you can (though it doesn't do Farage much good within the 'kippers, either) - but as Mr Q said, Wellington (who at various times in his military career was indeed absolutely in charge) didn't act that way, nor did any number of other great strategists one could mention

https://youtu.be/NrDVsprWRCQ is, I suggest, an appropriate and edifying link

Bill Quango MP said...

No surprise that I agree with you 100% Mr Drew.
Dr North's blog is so dismissive of any other opinion. Not just technical. But, as you allude, even strategic opinion. Marketing opinion. Sales, PR, media, timescales,, he isn't interested.
To even ask about such things marks someone out as a cretinous dolt who deserves nothing but contempt.

If I hadn't wanted to cram that favourite Bragg quote in, I would have said he is much more like Richard Dawkins.
Dawkins knows there is no God. And anyone who thinks there is is a foolish child.

"What about Faith, though?"
"Its for idiots."
"but..its gives people hope? a terminal illness in a loved one? Without Faith, what do people have?"
"They have nothing. They should have nothing. Do they really think that talking to the ceiling will cure cancer? What fools"
"No..They have no medical knowledge. They can do nothing. But rather than do nothing, they pray. Sometimes for a miracle. Because it staves off despair. And keeps the living sane."
"They deserve to go mad for such medieval beliefs. They deserve to get cancer if they want to think going to an 11th century, cold, cavernous building, will protect them better than giving up smoking. .. Ignorant, superstitious, peasants"

That is how the North blog reads.

Undoubtedly a very clever man. He knows more about his subject than anyone. And yet here we are, you and I. Ready to be talked over to leave.
But not by him.

James Higham said...

Can't agree. Think they're in for a shock, even with the dirty tricks and big guns.

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CityUnslicker said...

ISIS attack, we have made it at last!

andrew said...

Like Shakatack without the music.

Anonymous said...

Brilliant CU - best comment of the year!!

Jer said...

I can't get too excited about being in or out of the EU.

However I'm fairly sure that a leave vote will result in David Cameron being assassinated by the Tory party (if he didn't do the decent thing before). As I think all possible candidates would be better leaders, I'm voting out.

Mark Wadsworth said...

A depressing but probably accurate summary :-(

lilith said...

I must be in denial. I feel quite hopeful. Perhaps because I am not finding it hard to persuade undecideds that staying is suicidal. Perhaps because we are hearing from Leave types on the BBC without the presenter dripping scorn all over them. At least some info is getting out. If half the Tory MPs want out perhaps they are listening to/reflecting their constituents views.

Nick Drew said...

In denial? I don't think so, Lil - to their credit, so far the Beeb is (almost) offering balanced coverage, at least as close an approximation as that bunch can muster

e.g. by not making the whole thing about Farage: and the coverage of is Dave right or is Gove right? on 'legally binding' has been pretty fair

that's the traditional 'election-fever' syndrome, the inevitable tendency of news media to make things more exciting by portraying them as a close thing

(long way to go, though ... and we haven't even begun to see the full Project Fear tsunami)

lilith said...

You just have to say to folk, "you think the EU is unwieldy, useless in a crisis, undemocratic, overbearing, expensive with a wibbly currency and a migrant crisis NOW....? You ain't seen nothing yet."
It's very easy to scaremonger around Remain right back at them.