Economists for Brexit

A strange week indeed in the world of this interminable Brexit referendum.


Firstly it appears that the polling 2 months out shows the race closer than anyone would believe. I am minded to be led by my own views that perhaps a really big chunk of the UK populace want to Leave the EU and it really makes little difference how many World Leaders or Dodgy Dossiers are rolled out by the Prime Minister and the Remain side; minds are made up.


In which case, it will be all about turnout on the day which makes predicting the outcome a fools errand. England may have been knocked out of the Euro's on the Monday - or perhaps they will be steaming through - how will the nationalistic fervour play out?

Anyway, today sees some very esteemed economists come out for Brexit and shoot a fair few of the Remain foxes. I have long respected Roger Bootle who I have known for years on and off.


Roger often gets things right, he was one of the ones noting in the early 2000's how spectacularly over-priced house prices had become and thus predicted much of the Great Recession. Few did, even if everyone claims to have done now 8 years later.


Only key issue that Leave seem to be grasping is that there is a trap in the whole EEA debate; a smokecreen of complex economic interpretation. The reason to Leave to EU is to control our borders and Government. Joining the EEA is a mis-step as it will allow the Euro-Elites to continue to impose free movement of people.


Today the economists show that the vast majority of trade is covered by the WTO and Ted Cruz wrote yesterday anyway that Obama is talking through his behind on the US approach.


It is about time the Leave campaign had a good whole week. 5 more and they can actually win, tall order though that is.

Leave takes shape, too late but at last at least

It is rather disappointing that the Leave campaign in the Referendum has only now got somewhere towards explaining what it is aiming for. This is a rather crucial omission, which is very likely to cost it the campaign overall. Indeed, with polls fairly consistent at a 60/40 split, the Leave team need some game-changing events to save them from left field.

The Leave team have at least realised we can't join the EEA. After all, why leave the EU just to join its shadow little brother. They key here is immigration, in the EEA, we still have no border control. To me, population control is central to the Leave platform.

As I have said before, whether or not the UK has the balls of the Australians, controlling population and mitigating climate change are the big tests of the next century. These are the strategic issues that determine whether society can survive or not.

The EEA does not allow this. Furthermore, with globalisation, as highlighted here by BE yesterday, trade deals can be done or not and matter less than before.

The key is stopping subsidies to kleptocratic governments across the continent, stopping support for the anti-democratic and anti-business Luxembourg set and gaining potential control over our borders.

With this as the core driver, Leave have a better message - its a tough one that appeals little to the lefties and city liberal elite; but it could resonate enough in shires and county towns to see Leave squeak home

Day one of the Euro Ref; huge cannons of Remain looking too strong

So Day One of the first full Referendum campaign in review:

- Cameron slams Boris in the Commons, able to deploy all his troops and skills from the front bench

- The Pound crashes as traders see a quick buck to be made, literally and this is universally portrayed as the markets considered reaction to Brexit

- No 10 musters thirty six FTSE bosses to write in the Times in support of their low wage Polish and Romanian staff (not sure they put it quite like this but anyway...)

One day, three huge blows. I note the BBC too is way offside for Remain.

As much as I wish it, I can't see Leave having a hope at the moment; the regiments behind Remain are awesome in comparison to Leave.

However, there are still events, a large migrant crisis in the Spring/Summer may swing things but for now I would expect the polls to move back to 60/40 Remain.

Early Dividends from Boris Bolting

This isn't a brexit blog but one can hardly forbear just now.  IMHO there is a very early dividend from Bolting Boris: the threat of a Close(r) Run Thing will force Cameron to do even more in the next four months.  This will include holding the line against the inevitable nibbles, backtracks and 'clarifications' the Brussels elite will be plotting; it may even offer possibilities of getting a few more crumbs from their arrogant High Table.  But that's all just noise.

The real dividend will be that Letwin's Sovereignty Bill will be made as substantial as possible, short of actual UDI.  Given the EU's "concessions" aren't worth the paper they're written on (or indeed not written at all), this may be the only thing of substance we'll get out of the whole charade.  So it wants to be a good'un.  Notwithstanding Letwin is a clown, it can't be beyond the wit of man to deliver a pretty juicy Act under this heading, maybe enough to sway plenty of folks.

Game on.

ND

Brexit games commence

With the Prime Minister looking like he has finally decided to the the EU referendum out the way, the  Remain campaign has sort of launched. The pure power of the Remain campaign can be seen for the ease with which the Prime Minister can get Enda Kenny and Mark Rutte, Prime Minister's of Ireland and The Netherlands respectively, to row on his side.

Less effective is support from the useless CBI, but still, shilling for Europe is something that that organisation has been on doing for decades now; it is hardly going to change its tune now.

With the date now looking set for the middle of next year, the Remain campaign can put into play its two main strategies, Project FUD and the actual delay of negotiations to unbalance the Leave campaign.

These two strategies have a good chance of success. FUD worked well in the Scottish Referendum when it was deployed on real unknowns - such as what would the end state of leaving look like? Exactly the same strategy will be applied to the UK referendum - what will leaving the EU look like?

Of course, no one can know, particularly when the Government won't set it out and moreover will not even have the terms for staying in agreed until the end of the first quarter of next year at best. This leaves the field clear for 6 months to set in stone peoples' fears about what leaving the EU may do.

I really hope we do leave the EU as it staggers from one crisis to another of its own making. However, from a campaign perspective, Remain has the best hand by far.

Farage maybe annoyed President Hollande a just little bit

"We've been going through this for years. If we don't want to strengthen Europe, then there's only one road."

"I heard what Mr Farage say that the only road is for those who are not convinced of Europe is to leave Europe," Mr Hollande said.

“There is no other way. It's a horrible path, but it's a logical path. Leave Europe, leave Schengen and leave democracy. Do you really want to participate in a common state? That's the question."

After all the smugness of the Tory conference after the shambolic Labour affair, perhaps the above exchange (provoked by Mr Farage on particularly garrulous form), serves as a reminder that come the EU Referendum (should there be one, manifesto commitments and events have a interesting history...) the Leave side has all the tanks on its side currently.

As always, events can change and 'cling to nurse for fear of worse' is often a winner on its own merit, but currently the poor leadership in Europe, Ukraine, Syria and refugee crisis shows Europe at its most ineffective and threatening making the case for Leave is easy right now.

However, pushing the referendum to 2017 means it clashes with a French election that will make it headline news as Le Pen promises to ape the British and Hollande the opposite.

Interesting times indeed.