Tuesday 2 February 2016

Open Thread: Cameron EU proposal

I really can't see this flying, but I am very biased. It is so rubbish I am amazed even Cameron can back it...

1 - No real EU Brake on migration - unless a big vote for it elsewhere in EU that won't happen.

2 - No real consensus on limiting Eurozone developments that would effect London.

3- Nothing else of major significane, bar more security measures around terrorists.

Is this really it?

yet Leave will still lose....


Electro-Kevin said...

Leave will still lose because the question is wrong and the question is dishonest. The quesion should be:

"Do you want an EU government or a British one ? (You can't have both)"

Those who voted for Leave (once the UK is locked into the EU forever) should campaign for the abolition of the British government on the grounds that it is a waste of money and surplus to requirement. QMV will mean that we are woefully under represented - we may as well be under represented with a fraction of the MPs.

Steven_L said...

CU, this referendum isn't for your benefit. Cameron was losing too many votes to UKIP and in danger of losing too many backbenchers. What's his majority again? He has no alternative other than the referendum.

If the UK votes to leave, an appallingly bad deal will be put on the table by our Lords and Masters after some more negotiations, so against our interests that in the second referendum, even you will vote to stay in.

Bill Quango MP said...

Not so.
The second referendum would be one of sweeties & presents.
You recall the Scottish referendum.


yet, when the first [and only} poll showed a majority for leave Cameron, Clegg, Osborne, and Brown went flying up to promise all manner of 'impossible' concessions. And that was just the first drawer of concessions in the PM's desk. He had four or five more drawer fulls he could have offered if it had been needed.

The EU one will be the same. Any sensible person MUST vote out. Whether they want to leave or not.
Because we all know, from decades of experience and real world examples, that the EU will not budge until long after a drama becomes a crisis.
And at that point, they will offer almost unlimited concessions.

If you are an Innie, then you have achieved a more harmonious and mutually beneficial membership of the EU.

If you are an Outtie, you can STILL vote to leave at the second referendum.

There really is no downside to voting out.

DtP said...

I'm with EK on this - we're kind of all a little bit freaky and maybe should not give a toss anymore as most of our fellow citizens really don't care. I reckon it's gonna be 60 - 40 for remain. All we campaigned for was a referendum and it's been achieved. The rest is just mood music.

Good grief - it's so dispiriting, it really is. The arguments for Leave are just so blatant yet there's so many vested interests, charlatans and cash on the other side and they paint anyone not in the 'project' as nutters, I have the psephological feeling that we're just wandering down Inevitable's High Street.

Nick Drew said...

Still some PR nonsense to be played out, but having taken the "let's see" approach thus far, it's Leave for me

on BQ's grounds - a proper crisis needs to be preciptated: and evidently all that's on offer is the same old EU salami-slicer

I am not usually attracted by 'pressing the reset button' (though a number of C@W readers were, back in '08-09) which is typically fantasy-stuff but so much else is happening, this time ...

rather looks like 'Leave' starts behind the curve, and if you follow North's daily accounts of the gleeful blue-on-blue stuff that characterises Camp Leave, that could get worse

but the Scotties showed us what can happen, and there are so many 'events' in the wind, it's all to play for

will enjoy watching my own MP wriggling: a born *careerist* (I could easily use more scatological terminology) but with a small majority, his demeanour at the forthcoming round of party AGMs will be interesting

Boris had better make his cultured mind up pretty soon, there's a churcillian vacancy opening up

Electro-Kevin said...

Nick - The Boat People horror was exactly what I forsaw and dreaded in '09.

Steven_L said...

The second referendum would be one of sweeties & presents.

Anything other than a few quid more on the rebate would require treaty change and the agreement of all the other member states. Their populations will not take kindly to their leaders pandering to the Brits.

If we vote leave I reckon they will simply set out terms for us to join the EEA / EFTA and they won't be nice terms. We will still have to lump free movement of people and pay a big annual sub basically. That way we'll capitulate and vote to stay in on our current terms. Most people won't give two hoots about fishing grounds.

Nick Drew said...

the MSM will be funny

the Beeb's and Grauniad's instinctive anti-Cameronism (it's just so-o easy to go "is that all you've got") will be at odds with their proEUism

Anonymous said...

Any vote - and you have till end of next year will be decided by somewhere between 25%-33% "swing" voters. You Kippers have already been discounted and the work is in hand to convince the various special interest groups that represent the 33%.

It's all over so get over it.

Anonymous said...

Disagree MR _L.

You are aware of the Scot ref.
The same argument was produced then. "The English will never stand for special treatment of Scotland."
But it was given anyway.

Timbo614 said...

I hope it will be an out vote and ! am relying on "events dear boy, events". There is plenty of time, especially this year, for some mind-changing events ;)

Steven_L said...

"The English will never stand for special treatment of Scotland." But it was given anyway.

Has it? I thought they were still thrashing out an agreement on further devolution / changing the Barnet formula. Regardless of the referendum result, it galvanised SNP support and Scotland elected over 90% of MP's that want as much devolution as they can get. It would be hard, in a democracy, especially where the government supports devolution to cities and regions, not to devolve more powers to Scotland.

Whether that means Scotland wins or loses will depend on whether they make good or bad decisions. It remains to be seen.

MyEurekaName said...

The real issue isnt whether concessions are achieved (or even achievable) but how big the out vote will be.

If the 'out' vote is large enough the Eurosceptics will be emboldened and the Tories will disintegrate during the second half of this parliament.

Aside - did anyone notice how John Snow n C4 news tonight brought up the policies of Gay Marriage and Abortion as instances of the UK being independent of European legislation. There is a very clever opponent at work here - split the Right on issues that are fundamental to the Right.

How will rightists vote if they have to chose between Gay Marriage and European membership?

The problem - for those clever enough to realise it - is how will the Left vote when it realises that a pro-EU vote could result in reduced abortion rights or restrictions on gay marriage.

The Euro-sceptics should be campaigning on these grounds and hooking the Corbyn votes; leave the anti-EU rightists to themselves, they'll vote out anyway.

Remember the golden rule of politics - ignore your core voter, they'll always vote for you; seek the opposition vote.By hook or by crook.

Anonymous said...

Cameron's a bit of a fool, there are perfectly legal ways to rejig the benefits system that effectively locks out in-work economic migrants from getting them, and makes them less attractive to those wishing to milk the system, it just takes some creativity and nous. The benefits are probably the one that gets the public's goat the most - the rest is just standard politics for them, so he could've had a big political win.

As it is, I expect the "nothing-good-enough" crowd to be bolstered by a large "this-is-a-crock" crowd.

I don't think even Major, Blair or Brown would've come back with such a paltry case, guaranteed to piss off members of their own party, the papers and the public. Is he so convinced at Corbyn's uselessness he's not even trying as he's winding down to leaving?

So, as BQ says, it's a Leave vote until the EU comes up with some real goodies.

CityUnslicker said...

Junker and the others have better things to worry about right now than Cameron.

After all, the EU has never lost a refendum vote, they jut re-vote until the public gets it. The could nt give a monkeys and Cameron long ago told them it was all a charade anyway.

It's still a shity deal though, not a great package for remain to work with. Still they have the can-kicking option open still.