Friday 25 March 2016

Is London the Price of BREXIT?

How many policy conflicts can a voter hold in his head?
A commonplace observation:  mid-term elections of any kind are a punt on the popularity of the government.  It seems pretty obvious that BREXIT's best chance is Cameron's crew being in bad odour.   They've made a great start on that, despite all manner of tactical trimming (delaying the Heathrow decision, dodging awkward budget choices, getting the EC helpfully to defer banning toasters, etc etc); and Jezza seems to have nudged ahead of Dave in the polls.

Since nobody has the slightest interest in debating Dave's Deal, and both sides instantly claim all 'events' confirm the rightness of their own cause, it all comes down to the mood of the moment.  Project Fear will get ever more shrill; ministers' statements will get increasingly implausible;  Nicola Sturgeon's convoluted contributions will leave the Scotties in all manner of amusing dilemmas; and Camerosborne will be wallowing in their first really serious popularity trough.

And then London will go to the vote:  Mayoralty and GLA.  Somewhat paradoxically, Khan is for Remain and Goldsmith for Leave: but Khan needs incohate anti-government sentiment above all else - he's got no use for complex, nuanced messages.  Somehow it's hard to imagine the Labour Party thinking, hmm, it would be nice to win London - but we should probably let the Tories keep it, so Cameron can have an easy ride in the referendum.

No, I think they'll be piling into the government wherever and whenever, to the best of their (admittedly rather feeble) ability.  More significantly perhaps, so will 'events' - particularly those over which dark forces have strong influence.  (Do we seriously think the Turks will come to the aid of Turkey-supporting Cameron by putting a stop to the 2016 summer migration surge?)

Now someone in the Labour hierarchy who is genuinely pro-EU (which doesn't include Corbyn, of course) will be piously rehearsing a different logicFirst, we take London, then it's all hands on deck for the referendum - and it'll be Us Wot Won It!  Trips off the tongue easily enough: but it sounds to me a bit like Harold Godwinson in 1066:  first, it's off to Stamford Bridge to tough up Harald and the Norwegians, then it's all down to Sussex and bring on the Normans!  Like many of Osborne's schemes, it sounds like a plan - but it ain't.

Cameron can lose London (and believe me I don't want that) by being deeply unpopular in May.  That's a fairly serious loss of prestige which significantly compounds his credibility problem.  And then Labour parlays its famous victory into propping him back up and turning it around in June?  Alan Johnson announces that Labour has now taken charge of public policy, and we're all to vote the way he tells us?  I suspect the cyclical, tidal forces of anti-government sentiment don't subside quite as quickly as that.



Demetrius said...

Apart from all those elephants cluttering up the room that we cannot see, there are the events and developments that were not or could not be predicted or calculated. Is there a big one out there which will affect decisions on voting? My Grand National tip is Carlingford Lough, just watch fall at the first fence.

Electro-Kevin said...

Neither side has space for complex, nuanced messages.

Many ask "Why can't we have the facts ?" but this is one that you're going to have to trust your instincts on.

And my instinct is that Britain should be governed from Britain and her politicians accountable to her people.

Electro-Kevin said...

I notice that The Standard now reads like the Guardian (very much unlike her old self when people used to buy her.)

I deduce one of two things:

- it is so left wing the only way people will read it is if it's given away

- that the Standard's message will saturate the London populace by osmosis and they will vote Lefty and Inny.

Anonymous said...

Or a third thing.

Its proprietor is being *accommodating*. One imagines there are all sorts of 'private conversations' between proprietors and the Powers That Be.

dearieme said...

Since I despise Cameron and prefer Brexit, I've got my fingers crossed. Tell me, why on earth hasn't Labour decided to support Brexit, or at least announce a free vote for Labour MPs and shadow cabinet ministers? Or perhaps it has and I haven't noticed.

What if England (and Wales and NI) vote, however narrowly, for Brexit, but the Scottish vote is enough to defeat Brexit? And then Scotland proposes to leave the UK anyway? Bloody hell, there could be troubles ahead.

Electro-Kevin said...

Dearieme - The Aslef journal is full of "The EU has been brilliant for worker rights." The Unions are dictating to Corbyn

Never mind that zero hours, outsourcing, factory closure, wage depression has all taken place despite being in the EU.

BE said...

I thought the Tories were trying to lose London to prevent the excorbynation of the Labour party?

MyLateNightName said...

@E-K, "....Never mind that zero hours, outsourcing, factory closure, wage depression has all taken place despite being in the EU..."

To my mind the whole point of Labour is to keep people - particularly the working class - under pressure and duress.
The last time the shackles were lifted (under the radicals of the early Thatcher years) they prospered, social mobility exploded and welfare and services were generous.
Under Labour people have been brought to penury again.

Is there a logic here?
Well, you dont buy an aspirin if you dont have a headache, do you?
If the people arent out of work, short of housing and snowed under with debt, then they dont need help or 'representation', do they?

So keep the bottom 40% trampled underfoot. Help them to do it to themselves by allowing unfettered immigration and shit housing conditions and they'll join a union and vote Labour all day long.

A sort of 'treat em mean, keep em keen' mentality.


Nick Drew said...

LateNight - I once heard Norman Tebbitt say:

when a prospective Labour candidate tours a constituency for the first time, his heart sinks when he sees nice streets of well-kept middle class owner-occupier houses or smart new right-to-buy front doors; and his pulse races when he sees a squalid council estate. So what is it he'll be trying to achieve? - Go figure!

(well he probably didn't say go figure ...)

Anonymous said...

ND and Late Night -totally correct of course. The bovine stupidity of the traditional Labour vote is ridiculous.
On the other hand, to place one's trust in the current Conservative Party seems equally as foolish. Patriotism (the Party of Europe and mass immigration), the Nation State (Globalists/the party of Europe), Property rights (attack landlords,)common sense (the green con and just as common purpose as the others)etc(I'm sure EK could complete the list),.
Two cheeks of the same arse.
There are a million reasons to vote for Brexit but perhaps the most important is that we might then have more of a chance to hold them all to account.

Steven_L said...

Property rights (attack landlords,)

You mean 'tax landlords' as opposed to not tax them, or subsidise them even? Does property rights mean not being taxed as other investors/businesses are, being handed subsidy via the welfare and being bailed out when things go wrong via monetary system?

Besides, landlords that use limited companies are getting a corporation tax cut like every other business. The stamp duty hikes are for any second home, not just landlords. And the Bank of England is probably quite right to warn about the dangerously thin margins that folk investing in BTL depend on.

You'd have to be tripping really to think the government are giving landlords a hard time.