Thursday 28 April 2016

Economists for Brexit

A strange week indeed in the world of this interminable Brexit referendum.

Firstly it appears that the polling 2 months out shows the race closer than anyone would believe. I am minded to be led by my own views that perhaps a really big chunk of the UK populace want to Leave the EU and it really makes little difference how many World Leaders or Dodgy Dossiers are rolled out by the Prime Minister and the Remain side; minds are made up.

In which case, it will be all about turnout on the day which makes predicting the outcome a fools errand. England may have been knocked out of the Euro's on the Monday - or perhaps they will be steaming through - how will the nationalistic fervour play out?

Anyway, today sees some very esteemed economists come out for Brexit and shoot a fair few of the Remain foxes. I have long respected Roger Bootle who I have known for years on and off.

Roger often gets things right, he was one of the ones noting in the early 2000's how spectacularly over-priced house prices had become and thus predicted much of the Great Recession. Few did, even if everyone claims to have done now 8 years later.

Only key issue that Leave seem to be grasping is that there is a trap in the whole EEA debate; a smokecreen of complex economic interpretation. The reason to Leave to EU is to control our borders and Government. Joining the EEA is a mis-step as it will allow the Euro-Elites to continue to impose free movement of people.

Today the economists show that the vast majority of trade is covered by the WTO and Ted Cruz wrote yesterday anyway that Obama is talking through his behind on the US approach.

It is about time the Leave campaign had a good whole week. 5 more and they can actually win, tall order though that is.


andrew said...

Minds are made up.

And they will not be telling the pollsters the truth and the youngers (stayers) will not be turning out in force and the olders (exiters) will vote en masse.

... so it is with some sadness that I think the brexiters may well win

Unless you get a stream of people like Julia Teapot (or whoever) on R4 today at 8.57 who basically said the best reason to brexit is to regain control over our packaging regs.

The transparent translation there was
the best reason to brexit is for people like her to regain control over our packaging regs.

At the risk of being boring, leaving the EU will not set us free to do as we like.
If we trade under WTO rules we have to follow the WTO rules as they are and there is no one to blame
If we trade under TTIP rules we have to follow the TTIP rules as they are and there is no one to blame

If we trade under EU rules we can change the rules and can blame the French.

AndrewZ said...

I suspect that the turnout will benefit the "leave" side. There are quite a few people who are strongly against the EU, but not many who support it with any real enthusiasm. So "leave" will have more strongly motivated supporters who are more likely to actually make the effort to vote.

Electro-Kevin said...

Turnout as you say.

The Remain campaign is actually extremely negative, though they always accuse the Leavers of being so. The Leavers are, in fact, more positive than they are.

The Remainers are quite bigotted about their EU neighbours. They are the ones who say that our EU partners will start wars unless we form a federation.

The Leavers trust the European people and do not believe that they will do this.

Y Ddraig Goch said...

I've been assuming that the EU is quietly moving heaven and earth to conceal all the bad news until after the referendum - but happily it doesn't seem to be working.

According to the BBC here the Greek crisis is back with "worries that Greece may default on €3.5bn in debt payments due in July if an agreement is not reached soon.". And then here Ban Ki-moon is whining about Europe's "increasingly restrictive" migration policies. So there is already a campaign to scrap the modest deal with Turkey and force the EU back to open borders.

So, the Remainiacs sales pitch is economic disaster combined with demographic suicide. Who could say no to that?

dearieme said...

And may I say that that sadsack Cameron can just fuck off? Trying to come over all proletarian by referring to Farage's preferred pronunciation of his surname as "poncey" is much too Blairlike for my taste. Much too Blairlike.

hovis said...

Let us hope Leave gets teh vote out to neutralise the apathy that many display (As well as getting their information from the BBC and other "normal" outlets).

Andrew - I agree leaving the EU will not set us free but merely give us a window to cull the Corporatist snakes amongst us - whether we do so or fall into the embrace of moronic agreements in the form of things like of TTIP is another matter, still better some chance rather than none.

Anonymous said...

The Leave campaign reminds me of "stop the world I want to get off".

No amount of hyperbole will hide the fact that if you remove yourself from one of the richest markets in the world, you will suffer.

If you wanted to trade with the China and the BRICs, there is nothing stopping us. The Germans, pro-EU in spades, do it without breaking sweat.

Sorry folks, the world will continue to spin despite your attempts.

Electro-Kevin said...

Anon at 6.14

Please debunk this from the facts4eu website:

1. The EU is the biggest-failing trading bloc in the World. Its share of the world economy has almost halved since we joined.

2. In the last 10 years the EU’s share of world GDP has fallen at a rate almost 70% steeper than that of the US.

3. The official IMF figures show that the EU’s place in the world has been declining for decades, and it’s now declining even faster than it was.

4. The UK has been the fastest-growing major economy in the EU for the last 3 years. And in that time we’ve created more jobs than all the other 27 EU countries put together.

5. Think how much better we could do, if we weren’t being held back in a failing institution. Stepping out as a successful independent country is the safer option – the people of Britain can’t afford the desperate risk of being tied into the fast-failing EU.

Leaving the failing EU – the safer economic choice for the people of the UK.


If the prerequisite for being in this block is that we must have a redistributive tax policy and free movement of people to equalise wealth then I don't really care how rich it is. We are way above average wealth and therefore, at the personal level, face a steep downward economic trajectory if we remain.

Electro-Kevin said...

Expect teachers to be taking sixth formers and lecturers to be taking students to polling booths in mini buses.

James Higham said...

Tall order indeed with that lot.

Raedwald said...

After Brexit, we'll be set to overtake the German economy a lot quicker out than in. Even if our GDP does takle a temporary knock, so will Germany's - and a bigger knock. She can't go on avoiding infrastructure spending for ever, and the autobahnen are crumbling, plus the migrants are going to cost her billions and will take a generation before they stsrt showing a return.

So, we're set to be Europe's biggest economy, the world's fifth (or fourth?) largest, with a permenent UN seat, our own 200 mile sea limit rich with Europe's densest fish stocks, from which Scotland will get the bulk of license revenue, part of the Anglophone hegemony and with a currency that beats the arse off the collapsed Euro.

We can hold our heads high again - and bring real wealth and opportunities to our people.

The Remainians are such gloomy pessimistic sods I'm beginning to think the UK would be better off without 'em.

CityUnslicker said...

Raedwald, the remainers I meet are either happy as they are city types, global elitists or first/second generation foreigners in any event.

No wonder this lot are pessimistic.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

"a really big chunk of the UK populace want to Leave the EU and it really makes little difference..."

I think you're on to something here.

People are fed up with the EU on principle. Yes, leaving is a risk; yes, it will probably make us poorer in the short term; yes there will be problems and difficulties. But we fought two great wars so as not to be bossed about by foreigners in our own country; we've had enough, we just want OUT and we'll deal with the issues later.

It could happen you know.

Nick Drew said...

A propos of Minford, I see the good Dr North has forgotten his vow to steer away from blue-on-blue fratricide-fests during the campaign, and is laying about him with the usual withering scorn

(did I ever imagine otherwise ..?)

Boggart Blogger said...

I certainly hope the leave campaign does win but I fear their biggest obstacle will not be the remain campaign but the new version of democracy now being introduced in UK elections, One Imam, one thousand votes.

Anonymous said...

There is a lot of hope and hot air here. In the period leading up to the UK joining the EU as it was then, the economy was in terminal decline. Joining the EU helped stopped that rot but the chance to use the safe harbour of the EU was lost.

There was nothing stopping the entrepreneurial types in the EU, claiming otherwise is just an excuse. Any entrepreneur will seize and advantage in any market - asks the Russians about the opportunities presented to them in the last 20 years.

With an ageing population, a self-imposed boycott of a large market, expensive skills acquisition from a 2nd class education system, Nirvana awaits?

The ability of people to indulge in rear facing fantasies is amazing.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 6.01
As Hovis posted above leaving will provide an opportunity to loosen the grip of the political class which got us into a mess in the first place.
They really don't like the British people.
Stand up for yourself your family and Britain.

Electro-Kevin said...

Anon 6.01 - We're not rear facing. You are. You want to drag us towards a soviet superstate.

Guess what ?

That's been tried already and it failed.

The 5 Presidents Report by the EU is particularly worrying on fiscal union.

Electro-Kevin said...

CU @ 12.16 - The first/second generation foreigners have nothing to fear from Brexit.

Scurrilous claims of xenophobia are as unfair as calling a drowning man a hydrophobic.

SELECTIVE migration will do wonders for the standard of living for everyone who SHOULD be here, including welcome foreigners.

Anonymous said...

Andrew: "And they will not be telling the pollsters the truth and the youngers (stayers) will not be turning out in force and the olders (exiters) will vote en masse."

My two lads were highly animated by the Scottish independence referendum, but don't seem to care two jots about the United Kingdom independence referendum.

They have appointed me as their proxy. :)