Thursday 21 April 2016

Leave takes shape, too late but at last at least

It is rather disappointing that the Leave campaign in the Referendum has only now got somewhere towards explaining what it is aiming for. This is a rather crucial omission, which is very likely to cost it the campaign overall. Indeed, with polls fairly consistent at a 60/40 split, the Leave team need some game-changing events to save them from left field.

The Leave team have at least realised we can't join the EEA. After all, why leave the EU just to join its shadow little brother. They key here is immigration, in the EEA, we still have no border control. To me, population control is central to the Leave platform.

As I have said before, whether or not the UK has the balls of the Australians, controlling population and mitigating climate change are the big tests of the next century. These are the strategic issues that determine whether society can survive or not.

The EEA does not allow this. Furthermore, with globalisation, as highlighted here by BE yesterday, trade deals can be done or not and matter less than before.

The key is stopping subsidies to kleptocratic governments across the continent, stopping support for the anti-democratic and anti-business Luxembourg set and gaining potential control over our borders.

With this as the core driver, Leave have a better message - its a tough one that appeals little to the lefties and city liberal elite; but it could resonate enough in shires and county towns to see Leave squeak home


Antisthenes said...

Barring a miracle we are going to remain in the EU. The only hope we leavers have left is that the EU will do what all previous unions have done it will eventually fall apart. Even the USA which was built on much firmer foundations than the EU nearly did. It is certain at some point the EU will fail. The pity is that if we remain in it will not be something we will want as the UK will not escape the harm that it will cause. Outside of course we will be fine and we can gloat that we were sensible to leave when we did.

Electro-Kevin said...

We are staying in. Project Fear is working - mainly because it is massive and unrelenting.

Michael Gove's speech was reported as though he was a raving nutter. It is difficult to see how any amount of organisation by the Brexiteers could outweigh the might of the BBC and a Government postal campaign.

The people they're targetting are the ones that say "Well ... I don't really know. My heart says leave but my head says stay."

No. SOMEONE ELSE'S head is telling you to stay. You've been taken in by the propaganda.

The Brexit's aim is very simple. Leave the EU. Sort out things later. "But we don't know what Leave looks like."

Well we do know what Remain looks like and that's something similar to Africa. Because until Europe is as unappealing then those boats are just going to keep on coming.

Brexiteers can't say this, of course.

Remainers can be as shrill, hysterical, sparing with the actualite and offensive as they like.

Recently we had "Brexit will cost families £4500 a year" (complete supposition) but nothing on the ECJ's decision on VAT, adding 15% to some goods, impacting immediately on our wealth (reality, not figures pulled out of the air.)

Blue Eyes said...

The killer argument for me is that outside, we know who is making bad decisions and how to get rid of them. Inside, we might get good or bad decisions but we have to lump it either way.

As Leave are now pointing out, we would probably get free trade in goods outside, and there is no single market in services anyway. The other issues are probably large, but with a bit of guile and enthusiasm overcomeable.

The question is, do we have that enthusiasm or are we as a nation too lazy and nannied now?

James Higham said...

Don't usually leave links but Mike at ooL suggested this to Leave:

andrew said...

Michael Gove's speech was reported as though he was a raving nutter.

... that is because he is.

No comment on whether he is right or wrong, just his comms style.

imo if we do brexit, things will either go very right or very wrong in a short space of time - well a few years. We are either going to be Singapore or N. Korea.

The killer argument for me is that outside, we know who is making bad decisions and how to get rid of them. Inside, we might get good or bad decisions but we have to lump it either way.

If you are a parent in Preston trying to stop your childs school from becoming an Academy, it matters little if the levers of power are in london or brussels on a practical basis.

Blue Eyes said...

Sorry Andrew that is bollocks. The difference is that the London politicans can be removed or threatened with removal. A future UK government could return schools to local councils or reintroduce grammars or whatever. Nobody can get rid of Juncker et al.

Your "on a practical level" is code for saying that nobody has any say. Sure, individual voters have very little say on their, but if the government pisses off enough people it gets booted out. That is crucial.

Blue Eyes said...

...and anyway the answer to decisions being made in distant cities is surely not to centralise everything in Belgium.

andrew said...

This is our common ground. Decisions should be made in the appropriate place.
Right now too many are made in London. Leaving the European won't help.
Some are made in Brussels, some appropriately, some not.

If enough of the decisions made in Brussels piss enough people off, we can leave the EU, perhaps by having a referendum.

Blue Eyes said...

Actually leaving the EU will help, because it will probably precipitate a wider review of governance. The coalition and now Tories have been devolving like crazy. Ok to these city regions rather than to ward committees, but I think they are a good start. London has blossomed under limited devolution. Obviously I would prefer that the Mayor of London had at least as much power as the Scottish Parliament, but still...

E-K said...

I wonder if the details of the Bluewater incident are being witheld to prevent a rise in the mood for Brexit.

Jan said...

You're all too gloomy! I think a lot of people don't trust a word anyone in government/establishment says so will vote leave just to spite them and it will serve them right.

Blue Eyes said...

I am not gloomy :)

I think we have good options either way :)

andrew said...

Au contraire.

As a true conservative it is an axiom that things are pretty bad now

... and changing them for whatever reason (even a good one) will make things worse


Anonymous said...

Ooops. Obama vocalises reality. Boris reacts with Racism.

E-K said...

Anon - Boris did not react with racism. If he did so against the President of the USA then we can be sure that the police would have been involved.

What he actually said was that Obama`s ancestor`s treatment by the English might be what made him so unpleasant towards us yesterday.

E-K said... you love the word racism so much you can`t write it without a capital letter ?