Wednesday, 4 May 2016

It's Trump V Hillary

So this must be a week of impossible things. Firstly, Leicester City win the Premier League at 5000-1 and now Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President of the USA.

So much for my £10 on Paul Ryan coming through at a contested convention; oh how the party grandees of the Republicans must be weeping into their beer today. Apols for the bad tip.

Trump comes from the same school at Corbyn and Farage; deeply populist, able to sometimes say the things people want to hear and not what the elites think should be said.

However, all three suffer from the same issue of this meaning because they are right on one thing (say poverty, the power of wall street, immigration) they imagine every other hair-brained idea they have is also right.

What this does mean though is that politics is slowly morphing, more to single issues and away from banal consensus (which has proved so wrong over the course of this century much as it did at the beginning of the 20th Century before World War One).

For a short-attention spanned media and populace, changed by the emergence of social media, the single issues cut through whilst the sins seem more easily forgiven.

Trump would certainly make an interesting President, it is hard to see him doing worse than Obama who has done very little with his 8 years in power and has seen the USA regress across many economic and social indicators.

Hillary Clinton, wife of a former President, is surely the worst sort of first women President you could imagine - there by nepotism, no real desire beyond power, having hid the Clinton misdemeanours for decades. Frankly, Hillary is as bizarre a choice for the Democrats as Trump is for the Republicans.

Will make for an interesting year though. I wonder what impossible thing I should try myself given this week of strangeness...


raedwald said...

Haha I've still got £30 at 33:1 on Andy Burnham being the next PM - since 2013

If this pans out to be an establishment vs. antiestablishment election in the US, don't underestimate Trump's chances. There's a whole class of Americans feeling betrayed and abandoned, the kind of people that Bruce Springsteen lyrics are about, whose skills, loyalty, love of country and willingness to graft have earned zilch; they've been overtaken by a tech savvy rainbow melange as likely to speak Spanish as English. The angry, the dispossessed, those like Sisyphus condemned to work 45 a week just to live, those who blame big gub'ment, big business, big State for being stuck will all vote for Trump, whether traditional democrats or republicans

And don't underestimate America's ability to see right through Missy Hillary as a mendacious mega-wealthy establishment stooge hungry for power.

This is all getting very interesting.

Professor Pizzle said...

The Dems blew it with Hilary. She is loathed – and a crook to boot. Plus the WE HATE THE 1% crowd hate her too.
TRUMP v HILARY is a TRUMP win. (Read Scott Adams blog).

Sanders, for all of his economic illiteracy, would have taken both sets of votes + all the 'protectionist bring the jobs back home' crowd that have latched onto Trump. He stood a chance of beating Trump.

It's not too late though. The FBI investigation into her various email frauds provide the Dems with a neat way out.
The Dems have blindly defended her, so far, over the email saga (without fully understanding what she did) but TPTB can now use it to 'reluctantly' ease her out – or actually throw her under the bus by spilling the beans if she won't go.

Then give Sanders the nomination.

Question is: Are they realistic enough to sacrifice Hilary to save the presidency?

Nick Drew said...

"hair-brained" - LOL!

DtP said...

I really wouldn't like to be an American not only with the choice of candidates but for this to go on for another 6 blinkin' months - is it sado-politics or something?

Ceedy said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Electro-Kevin said...

Why Trump ? Because of Obama.

"However, all three suffer from the same issue of this meaning because they are right on one thing (say poverty, the power of wall street, immigration) they imagine every other hair-brained idea they have is also right."

What ? Like the governments of conventional parties stick to their manifesto pledges when they find they can't fulfil them ?

They ALL make silly promises.

Electro-Kevin said...

"Politics is morphing"

Hopefully it's being polarised - as it's meant to be.

CityUnslicker said...

I had to match the picture ND.

Thud said...

Hillary and the Clinton circus are a target rich environment but for years the media with few exceptions has left them untouched.Trump will go in for the kill, it is going to get interesting as Hillary is going to see all the bodies being dug up on prime time.

James Higham said...

Trump would certainly make an interesting President, it is hard to see him doing worse than Obama

The gentle art of understatement.

Timbo614 said...

The bookies have:

Clinton: 4/11
Trump 2/1

But as you say Liecester won it at 5000/1 :)

We live in interesting times. Strange that it is basically a businessman that is going to try and stuff the establishment.

Electro-Kevin said...

Timbo - No-one controls his purse strings. As Thud says: Billary has corpses... Trump's odds can only improve.

andrew said...

I backed Ryan for a while, but sold out ~2 weeks ago at a nice profit.

Trump has not much chance.

Like Farage, some people love him but
- Women dont
- Latinos dont
That alone promises a Clinton win

Clinton does have corpses in the backyard, but so does Trump.

Having said that nothing is for sure.

Timbo614 said...


2/1 in a two horse race is good :)

I was expecting even money Trump, odds on Clinton.

Maybe it's time for a punt...

Electro-Kevin said...

Andrew - Women LOVE Trump. They hate Billary. Fair minded Latinos (who have done everything legally) are now Americans and don't want unfair minded Latinos encouraged to breach the border any more than an Irish American would.

Electro-Kevin said...

Also ... Farage very nearly gave the Tories a thumping. They had to:

A) Promise a referendum

B) Put the fear of God of the prospect of a certain WOMAN making it into coalition with a gonk

To neutralise the threat.

andrew said...

I think you are being a little unfair on gonks.
My older cousin still has hers.

StevenL said...

I backed Ryan for a while, but sold out ~2 weeks ago at a nice profit.

You reckon those devious yanks were just using CU to talk their book?

I was going to have a fiver on when CU mentioned it, but as it happens I never got around to it. I've still that £20 on Trump to be president though!

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Demetrius said...

It appears that Donald and I may share a common Scottish ancestry. Now you should really start worrying.

Anonymous said...

As an ardent follower, I've put together the insights from this thread and hte previous one and concluded -

1. Corbyn will resign following a disastrous showing in today's elections.
2. Trump will be the next POTUS - or is it PITA. (Did you know at least half the US Presidents have Scots lineage?
3. Lord Sugar is the next best bet for PM 2020 as ex-Apprentice czar. I'm off to William Hill's.

hovis said...

I see "The Donald" is reported as saying Britain better off out the EU this morning.

andrew said...

I change my view on the Trump
As a dealmaker and negotiator, he is clearly quite brilliant

He has now conditioned the US public to expect him to speak a load of arse and not to question it overmuch.
Because he is 'different' and 'an outsider'
If a 'normal' pol said anything similar their future career would be truncated in a few hours.

In a sense he has built high ground for himself and a marsh for everyone else.

A bit like Putin

Except Trump's asymmetric terrorism is limited to the verbal arena.

Steven_L said...

Except Trump's asymmetric terrorism is limited to the verbal arena

You'll just have to hope it stays that way when he commands the worlds most lethal killing machine.