Monday, 4 July 2016
Fox will go Tuesday, then who and then what?
By teatime tomorrow the Tory field will be down to 4 already, May, Leadsom, Crab and Gove.
Given that Crabb is not really in it the race at all, then it is the 3. By Tuesday next week then we will have the final two and the vote for the party will be being arranged.
I find it hard to see beyond Teresa May who personally I would not go for. After the Brexit vote, strong Brexit leadership is called for. If we want a remainiac, we could have just stuck with Cameron.
Still, I don't get a vote these days so my tuppence is not worth even that.
Of more interest this week and far, far more importance is:
1) Will the markets and Sterling settle down at last?
2) Will all the deals and IPO's put on hold start to come back at all?
3) Will big ticket retail spending come back?
I certainly don't expect all 3 to happen, but the latter could turn around quite quickly and the first of those should be the case. They key is point 2 - that alone is a big weakening of the economy and it has to be reasoned that the suspensions will continue as it is the middle of the summer anyway and decision-makers who are not already on Ramadan will be off to St Kitts anyway in a few days.