After Boris: Runners, Riders & the Momentum Thing

Who he?

I am a long-time amateur student of how the big parties change their leaderships.  If there's one iron rule, it's that the long-term heir apparent rarely gets the prize - and when they do, everyone quickly knows it's a big mistake (Eden, Brown).  Generally speaking, heirs apparent come and go: think of Thatcher's time:  Cecil Parkinson;  Norman Tebbit;  John 'golden boy' Moore;  Michael Portillo ... come 1990, nope, none of them.  John Major!  Wouldn't have been on any serious list of predictions 18 months before it happened.  Ditto Thatcher herself, of course, in 1973.  Or May in 2015.  Or Corbyn in 2014.  Or Blair in 1992.

And so it goes on:  parallel instances are legion.

Michael Crick, an old chum of mine and very professional student of these things (no man more so since the late, lamented Vincent Hanna), developed some advanced theorising about what he called "limited electorate" elections (like when MPs choose the leader), honing his observations on frequent, bitterly fought contests in student politics.  In his theory, when everybody involved essentially knows everybody else, and when there's a lot of serious ambition in play, i.e. the post is much sought after**, there is no merit whatever in being an heir apparent.  Quite the reverse: the key is to be accelerating like crazy up the rankings in a shortish period before the election, maybe even coming from nowhere.  That's "nowhere in people's reckoning", not "who the hell is this?" - because, ex hypothesi, everyone knows everyone.  Or, to translate into American political vernacular, it's the candidate with the Big Mo at the exact time of the poll.  Fresh, novelty value.  We've all made a discovery.  "Hey, you know what?  Maybe ... Fred !"

These days, of course, the leadership elections are technically thrown open to t'membership - but only on some shortlist basis.  In other words, the informed, limited selectorship (where everyone knows everyone) gets to pre-qualify what t'membership will find on the ballot.  A bit of a hybrid, but it doesn't significantly invalidate the theory, I suggest.

Anyhow.  By way of calibration, here's the complete list of runners and riders as listed A-Z by Conservative Home back last December, another time when Boris was on the rocks.  (It's not new.)

Badenoch;       Baker;      Brady;      Gove;      Harper;      Hunt;                             Javid;     Mordaunt;      Patel;        Raab;        Rees-Mogg;                                     Sunak;      Trevelyan;           Truss;      Tugendhat

Who is Harper?, I hear you mutter.  And Badenoch .. and Trevelyan ..?  But that's not the point.  Now: here's this week's YouGov opinion poll list:

Gove;          Hunt;          Mordaunt;  Patel;      Sunak;      Truss;                                     Tugendhat;          Wallace;          Zahawi

Read these lists and weep.  But note how things change: and while Gove has apparently now ruled himself out, Wallace - nowhere in December - came top of the poll!

Yes, folks - Timing is everything in these matters, with Events running a close second.  If Boris staggers on into the New Year (a very big If), it'll be someone nobody is even considering right now.

ND

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** Obviously this isn't meant to be relevant in elections where generally there is a dire paucity of candidates, e.g. for the chair of the local WI.  Though sometimes it might.

Boris the Tax-Slayer

It is quite hard to consider the Tory party leadership election at all. We always think that today we are ruled by political pygmies - peoples' reputations take a while to settle in and most often not when they are in office. For example. Ed Balls was considered a fairly mid-level politician by now in comparison to the current Opposition front bench he is a colossus.


However, many of the runners and riders in the current Tory party are obviously not good Conservative Prime Minister material. From the Lilb Dem Rory Stewart, to the unhinged Andrea Leadsom (who is a good minister though, being of strong enough will to stop the civil service from doing nothing as per). It is not a very edifying field and the only good thing one can see is that for the Tories it allows them to hog the headlines.


But, there is Boris. I have serious doubts about his ability to be Prime Minister - I think it still says it all that Gove knifed him and ruined his own career, plus let in May, rather than let Boris who he knew so well grab the Crown. At least, by default, he is better than Corbyn.


Also there is his tax cut grab. Very sharp this, reducing taxes on people who earn £80k or less- just like the MP's that vote for him per chance? More seriously, it is a long time since anyone in the UK public arena seriously talked about cutting the high-burden of taxes. And high they are by all historical standards. Faced with Corbyn pledging to tax and spend, this is really the Tory answer that will resonate on the doorstep in an election with a big chunk of swing votes. Add it to the Northern leave vote if he can Brexit through and Boris is home and hosed. Of course, once he has got power, perhaps delivered a compromise Brexit, he will then have literally no idea what to do.


A peaceable couple of years of Government is long-overdue and will be most welcome to many.

On Manoeuvres: Who Succeeds May?

This is an entertaining one.  We know that whenever the leadership of one of the big two parties is on the line, an amazing array of no-hopers thrust themselves forward (Andrea who?):   even a 1-500 shot of becoming PM at a stroke is too much for a mere mortal to resist, still less a venal MP.

But whom do we reckon has a serious chance?

For what it's worth, I'd say Hammond is on maneouvres in a big way.  He never seems to feature on shortlists, so maybe the true insiders know of some absolutely fatal feature in his background.  That apart, surely he's the safe-hands candidate by a country mile.

What do we think?

(Andrea who?)

ND

Fox, Crabb Gone - Hopefully Osborne Too

So CU called Fox right: he's gone, and Crabb too.  We're down to May, Leadsom and Gove, with the Fox and Crabb votes - now adrift - being directed at May.

Can we please hope this means May will feel sufficiently confident as not to need Osborne in any shape or form?

ND

Fox will go Tuesday, then who and then what?

Tory Leadership elections are quite something. Labour really could learn a lot from their opponents..as could UKIP!


By teatime tomorrow the Tory field will be down to 4 already, May, Leadsom, Crab and Gove.


Given that Crabb is not really in it the race at all, then it is the 3. By Tuesday next week then we will have the final two and the vote for the party will be being arranged.


I find it hard to see beyond Teresa May who personally I would not go for. After the Brexit vote, strong Brexit leadership is called for. If we want a remainiac, we could have just stuck with Cameron.


Still, I don't get a vote these days so my tuppence is not worth even that.


Of more interest this week and far, far more importance is:


1) Will the markets and Sterling settle down at last?
2) Will all the deals and IPO's put on hold start to come back at all?
3) Will big ticket retail spending come back?


I certainly don't expect all 3 to happen, but the latter could turn around quite quickly and the first of those should be the case. They key is point 2 - that alone is a big weakening of the economy and it has to be reasoned that the suspensions will continue as it is the middle of the summer anyway and decision-makers who are not already on Ramadan will be off to St Kitts anyway in a few days.