Monday, 26 September 2016
Remainers still pro-EU...3 months on
I guess it is hard to expect any different from the FT, but today's headline of how worried the City are (in reality it is an ex-bank CEO who is now a spinner for The CityUK) is very unbalanced.
Big banks, especially US ones, are worried. They are worried because they do not like change to the status quo which has them as top dogs an unchallengeable. For the US, the Trump factor also means that they do not want to have more political uncertainty than they have to.
The UK though is very divided, this one of the worst points to come out of the referendum. For a long time in the future the country will be split on Leave/Remain terms, with the accompanying Shires vs Cities and Liberal vs Conservative split. (I find it so weird the political parties have not realigned themselves with voters here, but perhaps with time).
Also intriguing though is the threat of 'Hard' Brexit and yet this always seemed the most likely outcome given EU intransigence and the sheer difficulty of trying to negotiate a deal within 2 years. Hard Brexit will be a shock, but of course it will be much worse for the EU than the UK (given trade flows). Thus the UK will continue or even increase its role as a safe haven, untied from European travails which run aplenty.
The big downside to the Remoaning is that no other views appear. KPMG has released a study today saying all CEO's are looking at moving business...all the PR guns are lined up to remaon just as they were lined up for remain. This talking the country down piece is frustrating as it makes a difficult situation worse than it needs to be and stops the brightest and best form coming up with the solutions required - so focussed are they on spinning for remoan.