Tuesday 11 October 2016
Can Donald Trump still win ?
The weird debate is over. for some reason the TV studios thought it best if the potential presidents had a stool to sit on, next to a really tiny table, and a wireless microphone with no stand.
So when it was Hillary's turn she walked right to the edge of the platform, as if to hug the person asking the question. Which, if she could have made a few more steps, I'm sure she would have. And a few cheek to cheek kisses too. Standing right at the edge like that meant that trump could be seen behind her. Walking about and trying to get into shot like Eric Morecambe with his raincoat and bag.
It was a strange way to present a show. But, it was a strange debate.
Trump has had a terrible two weeks and his numbers have fallen quite dramatically. Enough to make the Republican party that was tacitly, if unenthusiasticly supporting him, because he was doing well, abandon him now he looks like a loser.
So Trump went on the offensive and was offensive. Sparky, but angry too. He semi-closed out his lewd behaviour as locker room banter. But again couldn't reasonably explain his tax payments as Hillary can't reasonably explain why Bill paid off Paula Jones with $850,000.
He did much better than before. Hillary Clinton still has no answer to her email deletions. The spin she tried made it easy for Trump to call her a liar, and to tell her she should be in jail. Which did get a very loud round of applause from an audience told not to applause.
So, Trump did better. He did OK. Although post polling has given the debate to Clinton.
The problem for The Donald is needed to do much better than OK. He needs to do very, very well.
The map above is Oct 9th. On the face of it, its a Clinton win. She has 260 leaning votes and only needs one more mid sized state of the 7 still undecided to win. Trump has 165 votes. He needs to win at least eight of the undecided nine.
These are polls and not actual in the bag votes. Only the Darkest colours should be taken as 100% certainty. Which does give Trump slim hope.
Hillary has 115 seats in the solid camp. Trump has 49.
Clinton's 115 are all 'safe' US Democrat seats. Most have been Liberal since 1992. When the other Clinton ended the Republican landslides. These aren't the states Team Trump will have been hoping to gain. If Donald Trump can finally nail down Texas, which has been Republican voting since 1980, his number goes from a very poor 49 to a better 87. That could give momentum to his campaign.
With his own party denouncing him, however, it does look like its all over already. It would take some really damaging evidence of a Hillary misdeed to come to light to boost him far enough to start taking states from her. And if Team Trump had any evidence, they would have used it already.
Trump must hoping for:
Millions of non-voters suddenly turning out with a real, fierce passion, because of powerful arguments such as immigration and sovereignty, which the opponent has no answer for. Voters willing to vote for someone portrayed as a hateful figure like Nigel Farage. Because they think he is on their side. Voters fed up with being told they are racist and stupid and with a desire to ignore the people who tell them that. People who also just stop listening to the endless warnings of all the dangers in voting against the status quo, and decide that even if it isn't in their own best interests they are prepared to do that anyway.
There are parallels. And in the debates if you listen to Trump's somewhat incoherent message he is campaigning for the same issues as Brexit.
Immigration controls. Lower taxes. Better healthcare. A say in the running of the country. American jobs for American workers.
It could happen. The Brexit miracle.
But its more likely an even more damaging piece of information emerges about Trump. Possibly several more. Or he gaffes up again and again and again. After all, he hasn't been in office for donkey's years. Being schooled on the art of saying nothing too controversial. Making sure to stay on message and blandly platituding the masses.
How the Republican's must wish they had seen this 'Corbyn' like figure coming. Their own Primaries were like the Labour leadership race. Bland long serving flippy-flops, not prepared to say anything at all that might alienate someone or noobie unknowns trying to go against the party voters grain.
Both not hearing the loud, banging drum of the next wave of politics.
Hillary Clinton is a really vulnerable Democratic candidate. But she is electable.