Donald Trump's very tight margin of victory

Hillary Clinton - 228

Donald J. Trump - 279 

 270 to win.

A pretty impressive margin at first glance. Democrats are wiped away.  And a very similar rerun to Brexit. 

Wrong polls: Hillary was 5% ahead in polls and still  95% certain to win on betting markets at midnight.  

PaddyPower had foolishly paid out on her victory weeks before the election.

Misinterpreted data. Exit polls showed 'the economy' and not 'immigration' was the most given reason for voting which is seen as good news for Hilary Clinton. 

Why would that be good for Hillary? It was obvious that the question asked was being answered as 'jobs' and not 'the wider economy'. You only had to watch two minutes of those being interviewed. 

Group think assumptions.  Latino's, black Americans and women are all voting Democrat.  

Why would Republican women, suddenly start voting for Clinton? The level of female support for Republicans is around 36-37%. That didn't move. And why would it?
 

Received Wisdom - The Democrat's ground game and Clinton's superior election experience will ensure more turnout for her than for Trump.

 Which ignored the near empty Clinton rallies and the Farage/Corbyn level of mob attendance at Trump ones. Why wouldn't those people be enthused to vote. As at Brexit. And for much the same reasons.

 When will they learn. eh? Probably going to need a le Pen presidency before it really sinks in.

228 - 279 is very impressive . Trump has the Whitehouse. Both Houses of Congress and the Supreme Court on his side. If he wants to build, he can build a wall.

The surprise and scale of Trump's unexpected victory has meant that people have overlooked one quite important point. he very, very nearly lost.

Florida - An absolubte, no question, must win Trump state, was won by the Republican with 4,605,515 votes to 4,485,745.  out of  some 9 million votes the winning margin was 119,770.

The seats that took him to victory, and made sure the Democrats could no longer win were Wisconsin and Michigan. And the ultimate surprise, Pennsylvania. A 'swing state' that has not swung since Bill was greeting interns at the White House

 Pennsylvania . Trump - 2,912,941. Clinton - 2,844,705. - a decent 68,000 majority. however The 3rd candidate had 112,000 votes.

 Wisconsin.  Democrat voting since Ronald Reagan left office. 1,409,467  Republican. 

1,382,310 Democrat.

27,157 victory margin. The 1% !

Michigan.  Democrat since Bush the elder fell from office to usher in the other Clinton, has had 5-15% democrat margins of victory since 1992.

2,279,210 - Trump. 2,267,373 Clinton. 

4.5 million votes. Margin - 11,800 votes. A Gordon Brown zero % win level of victory.

 Those 3 states, just a few thousand homeless voters down the polling station, and that would be a Clinton presidency under their hybrid, first past the post system.

So a Remoaner style argument of  a tiny majority for Trump from people who didn't know what they were voting for could conceivably be made quite convincingly. Especially if the assumption that third party candidate votes should have gone to Clinton is made, however speculatively.

That would explain the damaging, unexpected, and in the words of Margaret Beckett today 'Horrifying and terrifying specter of Donald Trump in the Whitehouse.'

And would conveniently ignore the facts that the Democrats had a very unpopular candidate who took months and months longer than expected to lock down her own nomination. 

Had 30 years of political baggage, stored in a closet with more skeletons than Vincent Price and more scandal than a Profumo romp. 

Who couldn't get out the vote, even among Hispanics and women who had been subject to constant Trump abuse and or threats of deportation. Even going as far as promising to build a wall to keep them out once he'd booted them from America.  

Who never managed to explain why she deleted 30,000 yoga class reminders on her private email server or where her millions of dollars mixed  in private-government-charitable companies came from.  

Who offered nothing more than a status quo, third term Obama, with a bit more war. Who refused to even debate concerns on immigration or the direction of the economy. 

Who exuded a sense of elitist entitlement. Of self virtue and self righteous preaching and ivy league disdain for any opposing illiberal views.

Who seemed to believe should be President of America because she was a woman.. and had waited a heck of a long time.. and it was her damn turn!

 Someone so unpopular that a rich TV host could come from nowhere. Say anything he liked, no matter how discourteous or outrageous. Stand for office without even the support of his own political party. Alienate half of America and have western democracies debating in parliament whether he should be banned from ever entering their countries, and STILL beat her..

That might have had something to do with it.

Can Donald Trump still win ?

The weird debate is over. for some reason the TV studios thought it best if the potential presidents had a stool to sit on, next to a really tiny table, and a wireless microphone with no stand.
So when it was Hillary's turn she walked right to the edge of the platform, as if to hug the person asking the question. Which, if she could have made a few more steps, I'm sure she would have. And a few cheek to cheek kisses too. Standing right at the edge like that meant that trump could be seen behind her. Walking about and trying to get into shot like Eric Morecambe with his raincoat and bag.
It was a strange way to present a show. But, it was a strange debate.
Trump has had a terrible two weeks and his numbers have fallen quite dramatically. Enough to make the Republican party that was tacitly, if unenthusiasticly supporting him, because he was doing well, abandon him now he looks like a loser.

So Trump went on the offensive and was offensive. Sparky, but angry too. He semi-closed out his lewd behaviour as locker room banter. But again couldn't reasonably explain his tax payments as Hillary can't reasonably explain why Bill paid off Paula Jones with $850,000.
He did much better than before. Hillary Clinton still has no answer to her email deletions. The spin she tried made it easy for Trump to call her a liar, and to tell her she should be in jail. Which did get a very loud round of applause from an audience told not to applause.

So, Trump did better. He did OK. Although post polling has given the debate to Clinton.
The problem for The Donald is needed to do much better than OK. He needs to do very, very well.

The map above is Oct 9th. On the face of it, its a Clinton win. She has 260 leaning votes and only needs one more mid sized state of the 7 still undecided to win. Trump has 165 votes. He needs to win at least eight  of the undecided nine. 

These are polls and not actual in the bag votes. Only the Darkest colours should be taken as 100% certainty. Which does give Trump slim hope. 
Hillary has 115 seats in the solid camp. Trump has 49.
Clinton's 115 are all 'safe' US Democrat seats. Most have been Liberal since 1992. When the other Clinton ended the Republican landslides. These aren't the states Team Trump will have been hoping to gain. If Donald Trump can finally nail down Texas, which has been Republican voting since 1980, his number goes from a very poor 49 to a better 87. That could give momentum to his campaign.

With his own party denouncing him, however, it does look like its all over already. It would take some really damaging evidence of a Hillary misdeed to come to light to boost him far enough to start taking states from her. And if Team Trump had any evidence, they would have used it already.

Trump must hoping for:

Millions of non-voters suddenly turning out with a real, fierce passion, because of powerful arguments such as immigration and sovereignty, which the opponent has no answer for. Voters willing to vote for someone portrayed as a hateful figure like Nigel Farage. Because they think he is on their side. Voters fed up with being told they are racist and stupid and with a desire to ignore the people who tell them that. People who also just stop listening to the endless warnings of all the dangers in voting against the status quo, and decide that even if it isn't in their own best interests they are prepared to do that anyway.

 There are parallels. And in the debates if you listen to Trump's somewhat incoherent message he is campaigning for the same issues as Brexit. 
Immigration controls. Lower taxes. Better healthcare. A say in the running of the country. American jobs for American workers.

It could happen. The Brexit miracle. 

But its more likely an even more damaging piece of information emerges about Trump. Possibly several more. Or he gaffes up again and again and again. After all, he hasn't been in office for donkey's years. Being schooled on the art of saying nothing too controversial. Making sure to stay on message and blandly platituding the masses. 

How the Republican's must wish they had seen this 'Corbyn' like figure coming. Their own Primaries were like the Labour leadership race. Bland long serving flippy-flops, not prepared to say anything at all that might alienate someone or noobie unknowns trying to go against the party voters grain.
Both not hearing the loud, banging drum of the next wave of politics.

Hillary Clinton  is a really vulnerable Democratic candidate.  But she is electable.