Houghton and Sunderland South will be an early, if not the earliest result on Thursday/Friday.
This is Labour heartland. 13,000 labour majority in Labour's unsuccessful 2015 election.
An increase of almost 5% for Ned Miliband, over the Gordon Brown election.
Its also Brexit territory. In 2015 UKIP came second and won 8200 votes on the appeal of leaving the EU. That was up from a lowly 1,000 in 2010.
It was also the first big wobble result on the actual referendum night. Coming out against party wishes, ignoring tribal voting and declaring for leave.
Tories, pushed to third place with a respectable 7,000 were actually 3% down and set the alarm bells ringing in Cameron's HQ on election night.
What fortified team Dave moments later was the realisation that the Liberal democrats had utterly collapsed and gone from 5,500 votes, 2010, to only 750 and had lost their deposit.
It was probably as early as this that Lynton Crosby whispered to Cameron, 'You owe me a knighthood.'
Two years later and none of the three main party leaders have survived. Its a very different battle for very different ideas. The polls, wrong in 2010, are now ranging so widely as to be useless for predictions. Its anything from a Corbyn/SNP coalition to a 120 seat Tory majority.
Sunderland, with its core labour support. Its steady level of 1/3 Tory support. Its UKIP upsurge and its Liberals implosion SHOULD tell us all we need to know about the election results.
- If Corbyn is heading for a massive defeat, Labour share should drop, even though a defeat in this seat would be incredible.
- If UKIP are not finished forever they must do well here. If they don't, expect them to be wiped away completely.
- If UKIP have suffered losses we should see where the Kipper votes have gone to. They are expected to break 25% lab. 50% Tory. 25% other or nothing.
- The Liberals must do better than a lost deposit. If they aren't into the 2,000 then the gamble they made on campaigning could be deemed to have failed.
- Though with pro Brexit being a major topic here, any 4 figure result might actually be OK for them.
Guess the votes in Sunderland South.
Predictions in the comments. Let us see who is more accurate. Pollsters or public.
Labour, with candidate Bridget Phillipson, have the following results:
- 21,218 total votes taken.
- 55.1% share of the total vote
- +4.8% change in share of the votes
UKIP, with candidate Richard Elvin, have the following results:
- 8,280 total votes taken.
- 21.5% share of the total vote
- +18.8% change in share of the votes
Conservative, with candidate Stewart Hay, have the following results:
- 7,105 total votes taken.
- 18.5% share of the total vote
- -3.0% change in share of the votes
Green Party, with candidate Alan Robinson, have the following results:
- 1,095 total votes taken.
- 2.8% share of the total vote
- +2.8% change in share of the votes
Liberal Democrat, with candidate Jim Murray, have the following results:
- 791 total votes taken.
- 2.1% share of the total vote
- -11.9% change in share of the votes
Change compared with 2010