Wednesday, 7 June 2017

UK election results 2017

Whilst being a bit too busy to blog much (been twittering more at @Cityunslicker as that can be done more easily on the move), we have nearly reached the end point of the election. It is the last day.


So before the votes are counted, we can mark the campaign efforts.


Tories/May - 3/10 - U-turn on a manifesto pledge, no happiness at all, no real use of Boris or Gove who, let us not forget, WON the EU Referendum unaided by the party. Reasonable attacks on Corbyn but Guido has done it far, far better.


Long ago I was involved in the 2001 Tory campaign, Save the Pound! etc. It was awful and Blair hammered us at the time. I think this is worse, the worst manifesto ever from the Tories. A brexit election and no plan even discussed for Brexit.


Perhaps 3 is generous, although the reactions to Terrorism have helped a little at the end. Better has been their social media campaign - miles ahead of the rest which will come as news to the echo chamber of lefty twitterati.


Liberal Democrats - 1/10 - It will be quite something if this weak and feeble party get more seats than last time. Personally, I think they will do worse and have bet (small) accordingly. Pro-Remain, Pro-Immigration, Anti-Gays - a hotch-potch of the least saleable ideas ever. No one wants anther referendum ever again, let alone next year. Dreadful effort and a fully deserved thrashing.


Greens - 1/10 - Why bother when Corbyn has stolen your clothes. Their vote share will sink to near 1%. No good ideas from the greens, re-heated communist nonsense only. There could be votes in kind of Green but in touch with reality party (see many European countries). But here they are stoic, spitting from the left on the Social Justice Warriors. (same marks and comments for Paid Cymru).


UKIP - 4/10 - Despite the usual hatred from all the media, Nuttall who has many challenges as a leader, has at least spoken about the causes of terrorism and has some more active ideas about what we should do about it. With Brexit UKIP don't have a long-term survival chance, but given this they have done better to tap the national mood than the Lib Dems.


SNP - 5/10- Don't really care and have not seen anything surprising from them, endlessly asking for referendums now is a vote loser but they seem addicted to it, hence they will lose votes.


Labour 7/10 - I find the Labour one hard, clearly the expectation was utter disaster but Corbyn will likely avoid that. However, promising unicorns to everyone is basically cheating and fraudulent, as a Government it would be chaotic in the extreme. As a way to maintain support it has been superb, they have found support for their Utopian dreams and played it well. Dianne Abbot has been comedy gold too, best thing of the election by miles, so extra marks for that.


All in all makes for a fairly unpredictable election, certainly not what was expected when all this kicked-off.

18 comments:

Charlie said...

"no real use of Boris or Gove who, let us not forget, WON the EU Referendum unaided by the party"

This is because Team May are still too affected by leftie memes, in this case the "£350m for our NHS" nonsense that leads them to believe that Gove and Boris are unpopular with the public, which couldn't be further from the truth.

I think the pertinent question is, "Lynton Crosby - what is he for?"

Nick Drew said...

Seems about right, a bit generous to the SNP perhaps

Question becomes:

is (3/10 x Tory proposition) > (7/10 x Corbyn) ?

I feel it probably is.

But what a shambles.

Steven_L said...

Long ago I was involved in the 2001 Tory campaign, Save the Pound! etc. It was awful and Blair hammered us at the time. I think this is worse...

And in 2001 the turnout was under 60%. Ladbrokes will give you 5/1 on that happening tomorrow, any takers?

I wish I'd bet on the Lib Dems doing badly instead of on the cricket, but then again my England / India final bet is still on. I certainly won't be changing over from the cricket to watch the election, even if it does get rained off yet again.

No good ideas from the greens, re-heated communist nonsense only.

Half the folk I work with up here reckon Caroline Lucas is sensible! They like Corbyn too but all vote SNP. They only like self-hating English politicians, it's actually quite comical. Whereas other life-long labour voters have switched the the tories.

Don't bank on the SNP losing too many seats. I reckon they may have become the 'silent majority' up here now.

Jan said...

I'm wondering if one of the main reasons for calling the election in the first place was to regain some seats in Scotland and to get rid of a major source of opposition in the House of Commons from SNP. TM must have known the canny scottish fish would bang on ad nauseam about another referendum and people would turn away.....

dearieme said...

Is Ms Abbott just dire, or is she undergoing some sort of mental breakdown?

Steven_L said...

I think she's just used to opening her mouth and blurting whatever nonsense comes into her head, rather than actually having to remember details or do basic arithmetic.

Anonymous said...

A couple of hours ago, returning from a family visit, I took a detour through a large council estate in a Midlands constituency that's supposed to be bellwether Middle England. Just went through on the main drag, maybe 3-400 semis and low-rise maisonettes, working class 50 years ago, a working/underclass mix now - no posters of any description, not one.

I get the impression Corbyn mania is more a thing with the children of Tory voters, like mine.

On a small section of the "executive detached" estate, added 20 years ago on the edge of town, one Tory, one Green.

In my admittedly small village, no posters - quite a few Tory ones on the farmland gates and fences of the area though.

Mark Wadsworth said...

There are far fewer election posters in Windows/on fences than when I was a lad. Goes for all parties.

Steven_L said...

And far fewer memes on my facebook feed than last time around or at either the Scots or EU referendum.

I've worked out I can back a turnout of between 55% and 65% (2 x bets - 55-60% @ 5/1 & 60-65% @ 6/4) and and score a reasonable win.

I think that has to be the bet :)

Mole said...

Crosby was flattered by the Miliband + Sturgeon threat which won Cameron his wafer thin margin against a certified cretin.

May might cut Nick Timothy's balls off but it will be too late to save her unless she gains 30+ seats.

What are the odds on Rudd as the next PM?

If any reader places a bet and wins a fortune, you read it here first!

Anonymous said...

@CU - Agree with all of that.

I'm still placing bets on potentially a +75 majority though - serious money going above 50 but a few punts locally too.

It's wonderful to see a Labour Party united for a change but, like May, every other fucker's been sidelined. The problem is that people who like Corbyn are, to a man, total bellends. I know loads of them and the genuine core of their support is genuinely free stuff, oh it'll sort itself out. Each one is a mini dictator and when they don't get their own way, it all gets kinda murderey.

Yep - 77 majority.

DtP

Anonymous said...

Rudd??

I think the Tories have tired of women with ambition but no ability

Anonymous said...

Osborne's pushing Rudd - hmm...my arse. Not even Rudd's pushing Rudd.

DtP

Thud said...

60-70 majority, Tories in Jockland have done a better job than here. I'm scouse and all my family and friends are too so they are all fucked up beyond saving....happy days!

barnacle bill said...

Well it's pouring down oop north this decision morning, forecast for the rest of the time the polling stations are open, so I don't think that will do much for turnout.

Except maybe for those who want to give May a bloody nose.

So a little prediction - Tories win with reduced majority, May out before noon tomorrow. All to our PTB plans do delay Brexit further.

Now get out there and prove me wrong!

Anonymous said...

Can't see a big turnout either, the last seven week has dragged a little and people are fed up of voting, the weather oop North hardly helping. Here, between Huddersfield and Manchester, it's leathering it down - only thing in the park are the ducks, having a breather from floating in the canal and river.

The only leader to invite passion has been Corbyn, and even he has joined in the managed media to a lesser extent, and it's mostly the tweens and the lefties who think their facebook friends are an accurate and unbiased sample size.

It's just been a fucking awful campaign. The Tories lost my vote early on and no one has picked it up (Corbyn almost got it in desperation at some change.)

Expecting a Tory win, slight increase in majority, with the clock ticking on May.

As for Rudd following her, ugh, no. Someone with an IQ higher than that of a table lamp please.

Anonymous said...

Tory win 70-90 seats. May holds on to PM-ship by skin of her teeth and the widespread dislike of Gove the oik, and Boris the buffoon.

But I have deep seated worries of what sort of advantage she'll waste when in the Brexit talks in a few weeks time.

What was she thinking of 7 weeks ago.

NaRong said...

This is because Team May are still too affected by leftie memes, in this case the "£350m for our NHS" nonsense that leads them to believe that Gove and Boris are unpopular with the public, which couldn't be further from the truth.
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