Wednesday 9 May 2018

And so Brexit dies...?

After all the effort and pain of many years campaigning for a referendum, the deed itself of voting, the developments of the last week show the holes in Representative Democracy and perhaps foretell of the long march back towards authoritarianism of 'Managed Democracy.'

The House of Lords, unelected and representative only of the political class and other elites in the Country, have continuously voted down all Brexit motions put by the Government. The House of Commons has a Remain majority within it, despite on paper Leave backing areas have more seats in the last General Election. The Prime Minister is a very reluctant leaver who is surrounded in her office by Remain civil servants, all conspiring to not produce any Leave based policies or strategies.

Against this background, plus that more expected one of the EU and its constituents like Ireland playing very hard ball with the UK, together with the international business lobby desperate to see no 'damage' to their low wage UK base, there is no appetite to follow the Referendum outcome and for the UK to Leave the EU.

As with much of Democracy, many of the 48% who voted to Remain are elated to see victory where they had faced defeat and are uninterested for now in thinking about any healing but instead just wish to Remain and continue to laugh at the thick, racist yobs who had dared to vote Leave.

But without the votes in Parliament for any Leave policies then there is little point in Leaving. The current false flag about the customs union hides the real prize which was core to the vote - controlling immigration. For in a Customs Union the 'four freedoms' (an Orwellian term indeed) apply. If the UK is denied control of its borders then even I agree we may as well stay in the EU as leave to no effect or purpose.

Thoughts must now turn to the existential crisis that will be created by the betrayl of the voters by the political class. It seems to me the voters will hugely punish the Conservatives for leading such a pointless and merry dance for the past 3 years. The down side to that will be victory for a crazed Marxist clique that will perhaps, when its policies start to fail quickly, move to restrict press freedom and Democracy. Already the Labour party demonises the Tories and calls them murderers it is not much more to go to stop them standing in elections when they are so far down the path of 'hate not hope.'

It's going to be very messy indeed!


Anonymous said...

a golden opportunity to revitalise the nation.
Missed by those too frightened to try in case they fail.

Display Name said...

Sure its been stated somewhere on here but what was the solution to the border?

formertory said...

Let's not forget the petition for reform of the HoL, linked on Raedwald's excellent blog the other day. Whether or not it'll do any good is moot, but it's a good attempt and if May is serious about getting us out of the EU (sorry, pause for deep breath) it might help give her some ammunition to squash the bugs in the Upper Chamber.

Blair's, and Cameron's, fraudulent filling of the House with political appointees has paid off for the political class at least; the need for reform is absolute.

formertory said...

Occurs to me that actually, having linked to the petition and mentioned Raedwald's blog, he should be linked too.

Anonymous said...

There are land borders all around the EU.

At least we get to see the elite defy the majority.

- don't vote again (we don't need two governments)

- boycot the BBC

No activism needed.

Charlie said...

Difficult not to be pessimistic isn't it? Are the Tories really so keen to hasten their own demise?

Boredom Wood said...

The Tories are already expecting to lose. They were expecting to lose the Miliband one.
No answer to Korbyn’s youth.

The idea is a soft of softest Brexit. With a feather landing that will hurt them just the once at the polls. And hopefully not hurt them enough to lose the election.

May is convinced there are more votes in not leaving than leaving.

hovis said...

There will only be whimper from the Leave side. Give a whisper of discontent and direct action and it will be crushed - you didn't think all those anti terror laws were for use against the jihadists did you? The police will continue to morph into the a hybrid chimera of useless shopping centre security guard, corporate enforcer and paramilitary. The rule of law and assumption of innocence be damned.

Agree with others, no need for Parliament if we don't leave - always wanted to get rid of a layer or two of bureaucracy, I assumed it might be EU and hangers on, but looks like it will be Parliament. Not that it matters it's not like people died over generations to keep a modicum of freedom.

tolkein said...

Why give up?

Let the Commons overrule the Lords. If they lose call a GE and say that Labour wants to stay in the EU, so Leavers need to vote Tory.
If the Tories lose then c'est la vie, but my betting is that voters - not just the Remainers overrepresented in the media - will be outraged. And if they're not then there's time to rescind Article 50.

PS I voted Remain, but my view is that we took a democratic decision to Leave and should get on with it.

miker22 said...

I have been steadfast in my determination to leave the EU for quarter of a century. (Since Maastricht). The idea that I and those like me who share that determination will tamely give up is nonsense.

dustybloke said...

In reality, Brexit was stillborn.

Mrs May is a weapons grade plotter and deceiver, but useless at pretty much everything else. She appointed a Remain Chancellor to be the whipping boy, but now finds that when you're at the top, the buck has a habit of finding you, no matter how much you bob and weave.

We now face a bleak future. We have to choose between a lying "nanny knows best" creature and a decrepit old Marxist loony arriving on nature's time machine from a bygone age.

I doubt even the threat of total collapse will persuade a lot of former Tories to vote for the Blues. That means JC. That means total economic meltdown and bye-bye London. And I'm sure our new type of membership will not entitle us to any EU handouts.

We'd better learn to like cold baked beans because that will become the staple diet of PONIs and even some SPs may feel the pinch.

(People Of No Importance and Special People)

Anonymous said...

If we get a Marxist government, the value of the pound will drop like a stone, so the price of imported food will rise sharply. Those beans are imported, like most of our food.

Don Cox

Electro-Kevin said...

Hovis - "Give a whisper of discontent and direct action and it will be crushed"

But there will be indirect INaction - DON'T vote. DON'T pay the BBC licence.

Fuck all they will be able to do about it. They can't prosecute 17 million people for non payment of BBC licence.

Petition and petition for the abolition of Parliament.

If we're going to remain in the EU then let's go the whole hog and do it properly. Who on earth can criticise us for wanting to abolish the British Parliament ? Leading Remainers ???

They really would be having their cake and eating it. All the pay for government office but none of the decision making.

Electro-Kevin said...

We have an obesity crisis in Britain. We eat far too much. FAR too much. We could live on a third of what we do and probably be healthier.

The cold is not going to get us either. Double glazing works even in a depression, so too do micro fibres in modern jumpers.

I am never voting Tory again.

K said...

I always assumed it would be a phased withdrawal over 5-10 years so things seem OK to me.

May only needs to start the transition and the real decider will be the 1-2 PMs that follow her. It seems like the most likely successors are all pro-leave whether that be Corbyn or Gove or whoever.

estwdjhn said...

Maybe I'm being thick, but can't the government tell the Lords to tow the line or she'll appoint 500 special crossbench Brexit peers?

AndrewZ said...

None of these silly games in Parliament will matter at all unless MPs can actually force the government to adopt a particular position in its negotiations with the EU. Even then, nothing will change unless that position involves a solution to the Irish border that the EU is willing to accept. Otherwise, the talks will remain deadlocked.

But the EU position has always been that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed so continued deadlock on the border issue means no trade agreement and no transition period and a “No Deal” exit from the EU in March 2019. I favour Efta/EEA so I don’t see that as a good thing. But those of you who want a total and immediate separation from the EU should be feeling optimistic because it currently looks as if the government is going to stumble into the outcome you want through sheer incompetence.

Bill Quango MP said...

Maybe I'm being thick, but can't the government tell the Lords to tow the line or she'll appoint 500 special crossbench Brexit peers?

Would the world's most timid prime Minister really do that?
Baby steps May might appoint them. If really pushed. At a rate of 6 a month. In equal remain and leave proportions.

K said...


The problem is the EU will not accept any plan at this stage. You could propose a plan they love and still "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

It's just how the EU works when they have to deal with negotiations they'd rather ignore. They'll fudge something at 10 minutes past the deadline like always.

AndrewZ said...

"They'll fudge something at 10 minutes past the deadline like always"

Wishful thinking. After Brexit the Republic/NI border becomes the outer border of the Single Market. If the EU invents some fudge to let Britain continue trading as if it was still in the Single Market then the NI border becomes a hole in the fence through which goods can enter the Single Market without being checked to see if they meet EU standards. Secondly, if Britain gets the same market access as Single Market members without being inside it then the Single Market becomes meaningless. Thirdly, if Britain gets special treatment then the Chinese and the Americans and everyone else will insist that WTO non-discrimination rules require the EU to offer them the same deal. There won't be a fudge because the cost of it would be too high for the EU to ever accept.

Anonymous said...

But there will be a fudge.
Same fudge that allows Monaco to have no border with the EU. Or Vatican city. The Channel Islands are not in the EU. There are no real customs.There is no border with the UK. The EU fudging on borders from Turkey to Lanzarote are endless.
Its simply a matter of what they call it and how its implemented and what it costs.

andrew said...

They are playing hardball with a weak govt.
There will be a deal.
The question is the price.
They have played it well, we are doing a lot of their work for them.
However i think they are pushing just a bit too hard and the balance of probabilities point to a no deal exit.
If there is no deal bj can point to a few years of 350m per week...

K said...


The NI border issue is specifically about the customs union. They single market and customs union are not the same things:

What's your opinion on Turkey being inside the customs union but outside the single market?

What about Switzerland, Norway, etc being inside the single market but outside the customs union?

Then you have the small dependencies which are often mad, e.g. Gibraltar being outside the EU but in the EUCU, outside the VAT area but inside the single market.

You stated your preferred option was EEA/EFTA but that only gains access to the single market and does nothing to solve the customs issue at the NI border.

There will be a Turkey-like "association agreement" fudge as queues at the border aren't good for either side and the EU will be just as eager to avoid them as the UK.

K said...

I got Gibraltar the wrong way around. It's inside the EU but outside the EUCU.

That's opposite to Jersey and Guernsey which are outside the EU but inside the EUCU. The reason you need to fill out customs forms for the Channel Islands is not for customs but because they're outside the VAT area.

Then you have the Isle of Man which is outside the EU but inside the EUCU and also inside the VAT area because it's in a VAT union with the UK. When you file a VAT return you include it as part of the UK but even though Monaco is in a similar situation with France you should file Monaco as its own location.

I told you the dependencies can get mad.

Anonymous said...

Agree with the general tone of CU's piece, and the comments; but will the electorate "hugely punish the Conservatives for leading such a pointless and merry dance for the past 3 years"? The evidence is not good: for as long as I can remember, and as shown consistently by polling, majority opinion has desired very strict controls on immigration - especially from outside Europe. But both Conservatives and Labour (taking Buggins's turn at pretending to govern effectively) have in effect conspired to maintain, facilitate and in the end massively expand mass immigration. Has the electorate punished them in any way? Has it hell! People keep voting for the same cynical crooks wwho've been shafting us for decades...
Yes, we seem headed for that worst possible outcome, BRINO. How will the voting go come the next GE? Around about equal figures for the usual suspects - though the duplicitous, emasculated, contemptible Conservative Party might still win, even if it's still headed by the dreadful May.
I don't know about things getting "very messy indeed", but they're certainly more depressing than I can remember.

Mark Wadsworth said...


Lord T said...

I think that if May botches this up it will be more than votes that indicate our displeasure. It will prove that voting doesn't matter and if that is the case how else do we make our voices heard.

JFK said something about this; Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

CityUnslicker said...

Interesting comments all. I don't have a crystal ball as to what will happen, I only know for myself that in my whole adult life of living in various safe seats I have only ever cast ballots where the result was in doubt and affected by me twice, once for a London Mayoral election and once for Brexit.
We know from Brexit turnout that people, really, really cared about leaving the EU. The Political class being unwilling to enact it, for some reasonable reasons and some pure self-interested ones, will certainly change my view of Democrcy in the UK forever.

In effect it means that rule comes from Brussels, elections are a chimera and nothing will ever be radically changed unless Brussels says so (which of course is why we had the referendum in the first place). Maybe in time there will be room for an anti-BINO party to develop but UKIP won't be the vehicle unless Farage returns - and even he may get treated as yesterday's man. The country will be a different place though, with an Elite overlord class sure of its preminent position over the destiny of the Country and once they have the taste for ignoring democracy they will salivate at the prospect of further transgressions.

Anonymous said...

I couldn't immediately find a link to 'The Post Democratic Age,'a paper written by some lefty whose name escapes me. Nevertheless I read it some time ago. The title was used by Mandelson in a speech when in Govt.

From what I remember the paper is something of an analysis and also a blueprint for the political class.

Suggest it's worth a read for those who are interested.

Regular Poster said...

Failing to act on the Leave vote will be the start of large-scale civil disobedience by otherwise law-abiding people. I'm not a violent person, but I'd be quite happy to smash up some government property if it turns out that the democracy that my ancestors fought and died for is a proven sham.

Anon, for obvious reasons.

Charlie said...

If we get BINO, a new single-issue "Leave the EU properly" party would surely be a shoo-in for a massive majority? I certainly wouldn't vote Conservative ever again, despite the party being my natural home, in much the same way that my grandad, a big Trade Union man, wouldn't vote Labour again after Blair's first term. Some things are unforgivable.

K said...

I think it will be BINO at the stroke of midnight simply due to the fact that not many are prepared for the changes.

The important thing is the direction of travel after Brexit and to make sure we haven't agreed to anything we can't renegotiate within 5-10 years.

Display Name said...

Deeply sceptical about the mass disobedience and uprisings, much like the celebs who said they'd leave if brexit won/trump got into office. People may join in the odd riot which won't change a thing but will let them vent, but in terms of a sustained campaign against the elite who robbed them of their democracy not likely, the middle classes have too much to lose by getting a criminal record (all future job prospects out the window) and the lower classes lack the drive and wit to do anything sustained and effective. The tories should get malleted at the ballot box but with the alternative being corbyn that won't be too bad. If ukip wasn't a shambles it could have done really well, ironically Farage said when asked if the party was redundant that he saw a place for the party. I've wondered for a while if this issue is big enough to change the main split in british politics from what is typically high earners vs low earner to leave vs remain for the next 10-20 years, If the 2 major parties split it would help give the electorate a much clearer voice at the polling stations, and would herald a time of sustained coalition governments. I don't get why they don't split, typical british cowardice, they won't cut the queue, the moment they grow a company to £20m they flog it to their competitor. Not saying all brits are cowards but i guess the reason that people won't create mass civil disobedience is the same reason that no politician is splitting from their party to create a new party, people have it fairly cushy and they they're willing to put their beliefs to one side in order to maintain that.