Thursday 2 August 2018

Interest Rate Up, Sterling Down

Open thread.

Right at this minute (13:10), Sterling is lower against both USD and EUR.  Discuss!


[Personal interest:  I am long both Sterling and USD.  And, of course, heavily exposed to the UK economy in general.]


Charlie said...

Markets didn't like his guidance that the "normal" IR the BOE is aiming for is 2%

Electro-Kevin said...

Well interest rates should go up. They should have gone up years ago. I'm set to lose by it but I've already factored that in.

What is annoying is that the slow down will be blamed on Brexit. It's Hammond sabotage in the approach to a second referendum.

Bill Quango MP said...

Its death for the high street. Don't know abut the rest, but it's probably fatal for my sector. Even at just 1% there isn't the reserves to pay the business borrowing costs.

Nick Drew said...

at 1%?

I suppose a decade is a long time to get hooked on low rates

but I read Carney is raising it now, in order to have some shots in the locker come Brexit day

still ... 1% must surely happen long before that

Anonymous said...

And across the pond, Trump's approval ratings hit 50%, 5% higher than Obama's were at the same point in his first term.

You could never fathom that by reading the FT or Economist, or listening to the BBC.

BQ - if 1% is a killer, how did BQ Industries manage in 2006/7, when I could get 6% on an RBS business account if I invested for a year minumum?

dearieme said...

Are you saying that they're putting it up so that they can put it down later? Who the hell is that going to fool?

andrew said...

... people who shop at dixons or dfs or any supermarket.

Bill Quango MP said...

Anon : we are already trading at a loss. As are HOf. Debs. M&S and those that haven't already gone.
Staff costs and rents are 100% higher than 2008.
Profits are 30-50% lower.
And sales are falling. Not rising.

So it will be the end for some. Even at a simple 0.25% rise.
Most probably us included.

Anonymous said...

Why are rents 100% higher ?

Are wages doubled per person, or do you have more employees ?

Don Cox

Bill Quango MP said...

Rent rises, upwards every five years. Rates increases upwards every seven.
Wages were £4.60 ( I think) minimum wage in 2007.
Today £7.83 is a basic

While sales have been static, or lower, since 2009.

BQI has been 5% down each year since 2012.
2018, so far, excluding new business, is 30% down. Worst I can recall since the 1990s. Worse than the great crash.
So, for very many, it’s ever rising costs with ever falling sales.

As an aside I went to a local business meeting last month. These are usually local shop keepers. Local pubs and clubs. A rep from a supermarket drafted in for mostly PR purposes. Maybe ten to twenty people in all attend. Plus the local council and a civil servant.
This time there were a hundred and fifty business people. I wasn’t even going to attend but got sent a text saying there were so many, so show your face!
Hotels. Farms, who now have to have a business attached. Shops. Light industrial. Pubs and cafes. All very worried and searching for solutions to the decline.

Raedwald said...

£ is grossly undervalued and will bounce back. Eventually.
As I refuse to xfer any substantive value of £ to € at less than €1.20, I'm currently strengthening UK retail banks, which gives me a nice warm feeling.

My 'folk economics' view is that the UK asset bubble needs to burst before retail sees the light. Residential and commercial rents both need to fall substantially to restore health to the UK economy. Earnings should go to buy stuff, ir expand business, not pay rent.