Wednesday 29 August 2018

What will replace Corbyn?

I can't claim any political soothsaying baubles, especially in the 21st Century where politics has been cast, across the world, into a dark abyss since the Financial Crisis and growing global demographic crisis.

However, I can opine that Jeremy Corbyn will not be Prime Minister of the UK - except in the unlikely event of some emergency election foisted by Parliament in the next few months. Given what happened to the Tories just last year, there is zero chance of this coming to pass.

His toxicity of views has alienated far too many people for Labour to gain position as the largest party. Worryingly, it seems for many in what is becoming a cult following, his peaceful grandpa exterior is enough cover for his enablement of hard politics - race and class hatred have exploded under his 'peaceful' leadership. But I can't see more than 40% of people really falling for this and putting and X in the box for such extremism. He has done well, when UKIP followed a similar path they topped out at far less support, albeit they did not have the Labour machine to buttress them.

But what will come next? Firstly, he is elderly so the excuse of age is ready made for him to step aside. The obvious next leader is John McDonell, but he too shares the same baggage which has done for Corbyn, so there is no point to that. Then the challenge is the rest of the left wingers, your Clive Lewis' of this world, are very crap indeed and would be exposed very quickly. Even worse than the Tory opponents, my to my incredulity.

In the middle of the Party there are some more likely, albeit odd, candidates such as Emily Thornberry - but I can't see them at the moment seizing the crown from the ultra-lefties. It would be seen as too much of a betrayl when the beloved Grandpa is already exiting the stage - if anything, Momentum will be trying to find a more shouty and righteous voice for the far left. So it is as of now almost impossible to see what we will have post-Corbyn. The left need a person who cold actually be Prime Minister, not another Neil Kinnock.

One huge downside of all this is that the Tories are mucking about too, faffing with May whilst struggling to identify the next generation who she skilfully does not promote - perhaps Javid or Hunt will be the next in charge. At least the Tories have people of experience and substance, the left are fetishing those who are oppressed and have done nothing but complain - neither of which will allow them to win an election let alone achice much once in power.

Is this correct, or is it yet more wishful thinking on my part?


DJK said...

I agree with you that Corbyn has simply become too toxic to elect. Besides which, he'll be too old in four years time. Tom Watson surely knows enough skulduggery to benefit from Corbyn's retirement.

hovis said...

I am unsure, *who* it would be:

Momentum seems to have taken over the party apparatus so anyone not annointed looks unlikely to succeed;

For any election Labour currently have:
+ we have the dyed in the wool never could vote anyone but Labour
+ the metropolitan SJWs (not a huge voter contingent) + soft left jelly spines clinging on (this time).
+ "Community" block votes

- Disatisfied Old Labour Brexitters (the would though hardly vote Tory)
+ FPTP that only requires 36%-40% for a whopping majority (Blair term 1 was what - 36% of the electorate?)

Tories are appalling and suffer from dissatisfaction from core base - even with political arithmatic I don't see them winning.

Both parties are lined up for splits, what kicks the house of cards?

Continuing messy minority govts most likely - the impetus is to stay in the current form is strong but brittle, I think the tectonic plates are still shifting.

Hold on to your hats and grab the popcorn.

PS: Long Term it is the loudest most intransigent vocal minority that wins through - see Taleb's article on intolerance.

Swiss Bob said...

There's still a chance he becomes PM if the Tories make a dog's breakfast of Brexit and turn on each other. Corbyn and entourage have shown they can compromise on politics in order to seize power and it wouldn't take much for a Lib/SNP coalition to form.

Any successor will have to be anointed by Corbyn/Momentum/Unite. But who? Thornberry is sucking up to them a lot but doesn't seem to be part of the inner circle. People like Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long Bailey are tipped. Frankly they look like local government material but who else is there? Richard Burgon or Diane Abbott?

Nick Drew said...

the CorbCult is an eye-opener - but also remarkable how marmite-like he is on the left

you are right, CU, that aside from Chuka there is nobody with a ounce of what it takes in sight on the Lab benches (Sadiq being *indisposed*, pro tem). Can't see the Cult following McDonnell very far, unless Corbyn dies some kind of martyr's death and McD carries a "Do it for Jezza" banner into the fray

dearieme said...

It wasn't long after Caligula that Nero got the job.

andrew said...

I forecast more May (!) - or similar.

Too many people really hate Corbyn - he could have defused that but decided not to or was too lazy or too stupid.

Too many people hate Bozo - that 350m tag will follow him for the rest of his life, never mind the lies, insults, casual racism, being big mates with dodgy people, infidelity etc.

Look for someone that reminds you of plain blancmange.

That is the next pm - someone few people really hate.

jim said...

A pox on all their houses. Neither Labour nor the Tories are fit for anything but making a mess of things. And we are stuck with one or the other with no alternative on the horizon.

If I were a Labour strategist I would let the Tories win the next election and stew in their own Brexit flavour juice. Meanwhile Corby can shuffle off and the next incumbent can romp home in about 2027. Brexit being a guaranteed disaster - and irrelevant to the real world. However I expect Labour are too keen to win in 2022, will simply make a mess of things and be chucked out 2027 latest. Bad strategy for Labour and bad for the UK too, we end up repeating the same old mantras time and again.

I reckon we are in for 20 more years of miserable times whilst some sort of role for an overpaid over mature country evolves. We probably don't do revolutions of the 'heads on spikes' kind any more. More's the pity, such might cut the timescale back a little. But we really could afford to lose all political party incumbents Labour and Tory and Lib Dem and start again.

Nick Drew said...

@ If I were a Labour strategist ...

make that If I Were Sadiq Khan

it's his Plan A (notwithstanding hs hedging strategy -

Raedwald said...

Putting the personailties aside for just a moment, the way that allegiances are splitting is instructive. A Pro-Brexit, Bennite / Trad Labour wing with strong support in the Midlands / North and a Tory / UKIP pro-Brexit alliance of the right, and in between them the Remainers, including metropolitan new-new-labour, LibDems, SNP and the Tory Europhiles.

Until party structures mirror this triumverate, there will be electoral chaos. Of course our Parliament is geared to a two party system so three strong parties are unsustainable.

As a Conservative, I have faith in the party's continued evolutionary ability to adapt and survive as the natural party of government. Who will lead the opposition across from the Treasury benches in 2030 is anyone's guess - and frankly probably not that important. Every party except the Tories is, when it comes down to it, just a pressure group.

Dan said...

The basic problem that Labour have, indeed have always had, is that they are very inclusive. Pretty much anything can knuckle-walk up to them, claim to be leftie and be admitted into the Labour fold despite holding racist views that would not disgrace a neo-Nazi. The net result is a core membership that wholeheartedly believe that the core of UK industry should be forcibly stolen from its rightful owners and the profits shared amongst "the people".

When you have a majority nincompoops voting in the leaders, then only similarly idiotic and/or borderline psychopathic people will ever lead Labour. Until this is sorted out, then Labour will be doomed to irrelevancy.

Anon. said...

There will be a tolerable fudge on Brexit. Economic confidence will return. The immediate aaargh over Brexit will subside. Hardcore Remain and Leave activists will look very outdated by the time the next election looms.

A mild Tory majority at the next election with someone like Hunt or Javid at the helm. A huge Labour bunfight as the "stay and fight" crowd realise that Labour can't win from the hard left nor can they change the party's direction. Ten more years of relatively sensible centrist Tory government. Maybe some floor crossing from moderate lefties, maybe a new centrist party, the actual Labour leader? No idea.

Charlie said...

jim: "Brexit being a guaranteed disaster - and irrelevant to the real world."

You can't have both.

Anon. said...

How can Brexit both be a disaster and an irrelevance?!

CU - you mention a global demographic crisis; what do you mean?

hovis said...

@Anon 5.38:

"Ten more years of relatively sensible centrist Tory government"
- only sensible (relatively or otherwise) if you are Corporatist with no desire for power other than to feather your nest and continue with policies to exacerbate the economic and political structural weaknesses of the country and destroy any cohesive social fabric whilst removing individual rights and liberties.

We are the Frog in the pot of water on the stove - how fast do you want the heat to increase -10 years time the pot will be boiling anyway.

Anon. said...


Timbo614 said...

I won't comment on the Labour brigade but for the Tories, No one has mentioned Gove... why not? He's bright, politically savvy (maybe so obviously stabbing Bojo in the back was a bad move) but on the whole he puts out sensible stuff. Almost the definition of a conservative!

CityUnslicker said...

Nice comments!

Timbo I would vote Gove, he is a doer in a time when things need doing. Sad thing is, he makes few friends and has a shifty air about him - plus in my lifetime the record of Scots in Westminter is appalling! I don't think he will ever live down the Boris thing, Cameron has it in for him big time too.

Demographic crisis - most of the world's ills are currently being caused by the simply massive rise of population South Asia and Africa. immigration, climate change, religious fervour - there is some feedback loop on the last point. But the world is being de-stabilised by this huge growth of people, just at the point where technology has evolved to not need so much human fodder and wars have decreased due to the nuclear age. People just hate talking about it because Eugenics etc, which I get, does not detract from it being the key factor in the changes in the world today.

Anonymous said...

The human race is long overdue for a major plague. That will ease the demographic pressure for a few decades.

Don Cox

andrew said...


The more I learn about Boris, the more I understand why Gove did for him - and applaud his loyalty to his friend in keeping quiet for so long.

Anonymous said...

"His toxicity of views has alienated far too many people"

I detest him, but what toxicity of views? You mean he's offended too many powerful/connected/wealthy/media people re Israel/Palestine, something Dave Smith in Romford doesn't care about one way or the other?

His pro-IRA stuff never gets a mention in the media. His pro-open borders stuff never gets a mention. Removing charitable status from private schools is probably a winner in dumb Britain.

As for abolishins student loans and renationalising some industries, that makes him Edward Heath or Jim Callaghan.

I ask again, where's the toxicity, given that his nasty stuff never gets mentioned?

Anonymous said...

andrew - we've already had the non-offensive options for PM - in Tony Blair, David Cameron and Teresa May.

Remember "toxic" Andrea Leadsom and her "gaffe" that a childless woman had no stake in the nations's continuity? She was right (see Merkel's Million Migrant Muslim Males).

May WAS the blancmange option.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - just because desperate lefties and others who fall for the TORIES HAVE MURDERED millions hastags, it does not mean Corbyn is not toxic. He cant get over 40% of the vote with his past history weighing him down. That itself is a poor reflection on the electorate but Trump managed it.

Electro-Kevin said...

"What" being a very good word to use with regard to the average Labourite.

Anonymous said...

The reason why Blair got such a huge Parliamentary majority in 1997, on only 36% of the vote, was because about two million previously-Tory voters stayed at home, and about a million of them voted for the Referendum and UKIP parties.

Fast forward to the next election, with a similar number of Tories disgusted with a Brexit sell-out, and others returning to UKIP, and Labour is home and dry, Corbyn or no Corbyn.

Electro-Kevin said...

And disgusted with the crime wave, Anonymous.

Charlie said...

"Oh, so you don't want to be Prime Minister anymore?"