Truss or Sunak?

Turns out, Conservative MP’s are mad after all. They want Sunak so much they have put a lemon up against him. 

They won’t look so clever when if the Lemon wins.

What a high risk strategy this is by Team Sunak.

Might Starmer gets his Man after all?

 So last week I wrote about how Boris would survive, undeservedly, due to Ukraine and Labour being so weak. However, today he came to Parliament to apologise and was defenestrated by Keir Starmer. 

Not that in the long term this should matter, but the way the whole partygate story is unfolding may well end up doing for Boris. Firstly, on his own terms, he has lied and been fined. For me this is a very confected story for now, but still. he was guilty as charged. 

The bigger issue is that Priti Patel was also woeful before in defending the Rwanda policy; a policy which needed much better communications than it has had. it would always be controversial but the way it was announced does seem like a dead cat to distract from partygate. Which is a shame, as doing something about illegal immigration should be very popular and is needed after generations of politicians ignoring it as too difficult. 

The real mess will be if Boris gets more fines. Keir has laid the marker now that he is a convicted liar. Apparently Boris is under investigation by the Met Police for six more potential breaches. I can see him hanging on for one more, but after that the litany of abuse will be to  much and he will resign or be forced to face an internal election at best. 

So the odds on the Survivor appear to have come in shorter during the week!

Boris the survivor gets lucky again

 He seems to be a lucky General.

I don't think you could argue that without the Ukraine war Boris would still be Prime Minister. The whole partygate thing would have done for him and the Tories would have been working a bit harder this past few weeks to find an internal replacement. Rishi would still have come a cropper over his wealth but Gove, Raab or Truss would be on manoeuvres now. 

Instead we have Boris hanging on, knowing full well this will all be forgotten after the May elections which are going to be poor as a mid-term set anyway. 

Much worse, the press are not focusing on quite what a disaster the economy is. We have the highest taxes in decades, highest inflation in decades, record NHS waiting lists, record energy prices, highest house prices ever, rising crime  and rapidly rising immigration. I mean really, the Government deserves to be mightily unpopular given it has very few policies or ideas to deal with any of the issues outside of migration. 

Amazingly, Labour also have precisely zero ideas about how to get us out of this situation. really none at all. They wont build more houses, will want to raise taxes higher , want fantastical free and cheap green energy that doesn't exist and they welcome immigration anyway. 

So either way we are screwed, but I can't recall a time where the opposition was so weak since the Labour party elected Corbyn all the good people, few that there were, quit. now we have a bunch who are worse that this tired bunch of Tories.

"The end of the beginning"

 That favourite quote of Churchill, after El Alamein, will be one Boris Johnson knows well. 

After many success and perhaps more mishaps, the latest debacle surrounding Owen Patterson I think will become a defining moment. It comes after weeks of mis-steps. A poor budget, lack of confidence in the face of victory over Covid, a pseudo-war with France, the net zero madness of COP26.

All the events pile up on the ever thinning Tory poll lead. But the ones who really matter when a government has an 80 seat Majority are the MP's. From what I have read, they are very disappointed at the antics of this week. Marched to the top of the hill and down again, all in favour of a man who is almost certainly guilty of that which he is accused. 

The tone in the press is different too, always the right wing press have left him off relatively lightly in the past - notably over covid. Yesterday it would have been easy to decry that Parliament was one of scoundrels with both Patterson and Claudia Webbe as exhibits A and B. However, there is little mention of Webbe. The focus, led by Tory MP leaking, is on Boris and his very poor judgement and actions. 

With Brexit delivered, and despite the remainers never giving up, no real chance of undoing this technically for a long time. It maybe that the Tory minds will turn to who is the leader for the future - beyond Covid and beyond Brexit. I can see how that can be Boris if the level of incompetence continues - of which there is no reason to think it won't. We have written here in the past about how a lack of ideological belief makes Boris unsuited to making the hard decisions and sticking to them. 

It won't be quick, with a huge majority and humming economy (inflation aside) it would be an odd time to toss Boris. But falling behind Labour in the polls, allowing Starmer to lead and have a voice that is listened too, together with the inevitable economic hardship the money-printing is bringing (and the Green taxes now biting ever harder, forever)...the drip will continue. 

No more honeymoon or easy wins for Boris, the mountain has been climbed, the view appreciated and the return journey begun. 

End Game time for UK electorate - a limp effort it is too

As I have posted before, I really have despaired at the quality of this election.

The Tories have one strategic plan and that has a big hole in it. Get Brexit done they say. But we know they don't really mean it. There is no way Brexit is over and next year could well see a big panic as No Deal rears its head again after we manage to not agree a Free trade Deal in twelve months flat. OK, so I don't really care if we end up on EEA type terms, however given this is their only real policy it is a poor effort that it is not even good or likely deliverable,.

Then we have Labour, where to start, their pure fantasy of massive economic spending and free treats for all is beyond the pale in terms of the damage it would do to the Country. The outrageous weaponising of the NHS has come to a peak just in time for the end of the election - clever in one way, but so tragic in another as again they have no answer to the real problems. We can but hope for a heavy defeat to see the communists ousted from our main opposition party.

Then the Lib Dems - only two policies have cut through. One being to revoke the referendum which has gone down like a cup of cold sick. The second, to deny there is a biological sex difference between men and women, has had a similar effect on anyone who has paid attention. As ever, get woke, go broke. A shame though as a sensible party would have had a real chance at replacing Labour, but there we go they invested their capital in Jo Swinson who had literally not a clue.

So there we are, what will Jo Public do come Thursday. I personally am keen on a big Tory majority to make politics go away for a few years and we can get back to sorting out the economy..but they don't deserve it and if it happens it is purely because the opposition are so weak. I think in th event it will be a very close thing as to whether Johnson gets his Government - a late swing to Labour of a couple of percentage points could send us back to a re-run of the May nightmare!

Friday Fun: One wish from the Labour Magic Lamp

So, as we have long know, social media and Brexit have destroyed our body politics. Our political class has now stopped any pretence of seriousness and just promises anything to try and bribe voters; in many ways this is the end of democracy.

Back in 2009 and 2010, we wrote a series of articles on Greece - two years ahead of the eventual terrible financial crisis. One of the main takeaways was that the politicians in the Country had reduced democracy to bribing their own voting factions and nothing else, plus the bribes were increased massively with borrowed money. The result was a bankrupt country with 25% unemployment and a ruined body politic. I recall warning we may head the same way and by a little more circuitous route we have indeed!

Anyway, it is Friday so it is a challenge day. Imagine you are a political leader in the UK and you have one last bullet to fire to get as manay votes as possibly through electoral bribery - what do you choose to make free with you magic money tree wand?

Monday Morning Quick views

None of us know what will happen this week, the kids have gone back to school but do the Blazers still fit? did we push it not buying them new shoes when they were a bit moaney about the size? whose turn is it to steal little Jonnie's lunch money?


However, finally I feel the can-kicking will end. Boris has rightly decided that he will die on the battlefield or win the Crown against the Pretender.


So what do we think...will he be Prime Minister by Friday - and by that I mean with a Government under him not hanging on avoiding seeing the Queen in a Brown-ian motion.




What are everybody's bets?

Friday Fun: Pick Your Own Prime Minister Day

Here we are the silly season in full swing and make your own Government being played out in the Media and, rather more bizarrely, by actual politicians too.


What a shower we have been cast with, if only it was just the Weather.


But today, you can pick your own. The scenario is the losers and traitors coalition in Parliament manage to defenestrate Boris by a small margin on Sept 4th.


With no backing for Corbyn, the cry goes out, who can our Prime Minister be to cancel Brexit - in desperate times they could be from the House of Lords or even further afield - after all the losers coalition is literally making the rules up as it goes along with the Speaker Bercow's blessing.


For me, I think we need an experienced Politician who is used to playing and winning the long-game here. So I would go for Jean-Claude Junker?


Fun in the comments...

Should the Brexit party stand in the next GE?

Nigel Farage's new political vehicle has been a bit of lesson to the current political parties. It demonstrates clearly how our current generation of 'professional' politicians are no such thing. The chumps of Change UK and the Tories are not able to even do basic political campaigning and messaging. Meanwhile, Labour have been fantastic, led by a young group around Corbyn - but they have come unstuck over the message of anti-Semitism and envy, as well as the fence-sitting of Brexit.


So enter a new party with a very simple message and bit of slick presentation - but also learning the lessons of the current mood. All races and classes are reflected, there are a few politicians in the ranks but plenty more from all walks of life. Very canny stuff.


But, should the Brexit party, which is likely to just top the Euro elections, but only in the 20%'s range, go for Parliament. Arguably, in my lifetime the two party system has never been weaker and a big shove may really hurt it.


However, will the Brexit party manage a coherent message for Westminster? The left/right gulf in the membership maybe hard to overcome and Farage puts nearly as many off as he encourages, plus likes to rule in a Presidential style that may prove harder in a political campaign - Theresa May is an example of how it may seem like a good idea to run a Parliamentary campaigning like this but the reality is different.


Also, if Brexit destroys the Tories where will exist a pro-business, pro-economy party in the UK political system? Perhaps the Tories will recover, but to me it is a worry that sensible and sound economic policy would be abandoned to a coterie of anti-business and pro-state parties.

Can the UK parliamentary system reform again like 1832?

Over the long course of history since 410AD, Britain has had a Parliament for a the country nearly the entire time. Groups advised the early English Kings and Norman despotism is more of a blip than the story itself. Certainly since 1215 and Magna Carta some of the people have had influence on the rulers. Indeed, since the 1640's and the last English Civil war, Parliament has been the main vehicle for political activism.




Yet one of the biggest challenges to its supremacy was during the period when Britain globally was dominant. During the early 1800's real desire for reform of the 'rotten boroughs' and even the House of Lords took hold. But it did not take hold in Parliament, the pressing for change came from the Public. Both Whigs and Tories were either lukewarm or malevolent (such as passing the corn laws to protect further the landed aristocracy who made up the members of Parliament disproportionally at this time). Pressure from the people, from the workers and owners of our 'dark, satanic mills' in Leeds and Manchester grew to the point of rebellion. At this point, Parliament moved. The great reform act was passed and although in many ways only a partial fix, it changed the Country to be a more representative democracy. Opinion polls mattered, Political parties had to canvass for wider support. Over time further acts refined the work for Wales, Scotland and Ireland and the work towards Universal Suffrage was completed in the early 20th century.




Across the rest of Europe, despotism ruled more tightly, leading to bloody revolutions in 1848 in order to achieve the progress won a generation earlier in England and here without bloodshed.


I have long thought now of this comparison with the current Brexit mess in which we find ourselves. The political will of the people in the UK has been lukewarm to the EU. Too many of our ancestors have died fighting to free the markets of Europe from despots for the collective of the British people to think that growing a new one is the best idea ever. Of course, if you are Belgian, it is amazing that you can now vote yourself a seat in world affairs! Different histories, different perspectives.


Our political class has long now been in thrall to European power, led by the miserable science of economics and the failure of socialism after the war to think the only way for the UK was to prostrate itself before the EEC, thence EU. Once in the game, the elites benefitted, enjoying tax free status and as the Kinnock family discovered, great wealth from 'EU' service. As the tension grew Blair made his fatal error as regards immigration and eventually the dam broke. Cameron hoped to repeat his victory over Scottish Independence with referendum device, but failure there has led to a domestic political crisis on a scale with the 1830's.


The referendum genie is also a representative of a big change in society. With the advent of advanced technology, social media and such like, people are both more informed and more engaged. Many challenges such as climate change are global, economic challenges are global and politicians have less ability to control events. Moreover, expenses scandals and successive elections with professional politicians have revealed the venality of the political class. Again today it is parliament which is conservative. There is not talk of reforming the frankly ridiculous (by 21st century standards)House of Lords. The EU must not be left. Even the boundaries for elections are entrenched by political machinations, long overdue changes for representation. And the crowning glory, the Referendum on Brexit must be ignored or rejected.


In 1832, eventually a way was found through the mess without civil war or bloodshed. Parliament moved decisively to vote for a change not in the interests of many members, but in the interests of the Country. it did not even require the election of extremists to achieve, the body politic adjusted to the pressure of the populace.


Perhaps if May's deal had passed the same would have happened again, but for now I struggle to see the ability of Parliament to come to its senses and listen to its populace. This is about more than Brexit too, it is about high taxes and centralised control, an uncaring state handing out benefits or not...a diminution of local government and of course a government voting for wars few wanted and waves of immigration without consultation. Farage has few answers to these questions, but he poses the questions correctly which is why he looks again like he will win the EU elections if they happen. Where though are Labour and the Tories in even trying to grapple with these topics, they are lost in identity politics and the low politics of political rivalry. What do our readers make of this, how will this Gordian knot be untied?

Tusk does show how broken UK politics has become

Donald Tusk's intemperate outburst on Wednesday is a good sign of the pressure being faced by the EU leaders - he said there should be a special place in hell for Leavers who led the UK referendum without a plan.


Behind the scenes plenty of member states are asking why the progress is so bad and if indeed it really is all the fault of the UK or whether Junker and Tusk are culpable. This pressure is telling.


However, it still does not make their comments right. Remoaners are loving the leave take down as it matches their internal narrative perfectly. Actually, it shows the huge fault line in UK politics. After all, whilst easy to say the Leavers did not have a plan, the point is they were never in charge, ever.


After the Referendum, a remain voting PM took over and decided the red lines- unicorn ones at that. Many of the leavers suggested a Canada+ deal, which the EU offered. But no, May went for a bespoke BINO deal that would be very hard to negotiate - the Leaver's slowly left her cabinet in protest and she ignored them. Right up until she los the key votes in Parliament that are pushing us to crazy no-deal position.


In Labour too, a cynical Corbyn has really had nothing to offer, no realistic plans or aid for the Government, just partisan noise. He has fended off the majority in his own party as we all know he both wants Brexit and the Tories to be blamed for it. This strategy may yet work, but the politics of it is awful, it demonstrates in very large writing that he is the very opposite of a Statesman.


So in the round, Tusk is right but for the wrong reasons. The Referendum caused a split between political parties and also between the populace and the government. May has failed so far to square this circle and of course the EU, true to their bureaucratic mantra have not tried to help. However, if a Leaver had been Prime Minister we would now, having suffered from a few doses of reality along the way, be moving to either Canada+ or an ever softer Brexit - after all Boris could have done that.


The huge mistake for the Country was making a Remainer PM - the time called out for decisiveness and instead we got wibble. Still, hopefully there is time for either Labour or the ERG to realise the only game in town is May's deal rather than the chaotic no-deal Brexit.


As much as I don't want another General Election, we desperately need to see the Country re-align around political parties who represent leave or remain rather than vote for the current two who are split which causes a fatal inertia.

It's still the economy stupid - lessons from America

One strong lesson from current politics in the USA this week, is that despite the rapidly changing world around us, it is still the economy that drives politics.


The Democrats in the US, broad church though they are, have much of the Corbynista about them. Many of them are utterly obsessed with identity politics, socialism and many kinds of other ideologies that allow for a stand on both victimhood and hate of the right.


Trump of course, plays this gallery well. He has no votes in the assorted misfits of the Left, but a strong base in the right of the party which can be motivated by anti-immigration rhetoric and tax cuts.


The critical bit is how thought Trump holds onto the centre. At the moment, he has lost the House and held the Senate, without getting into the entrails of it all, the Republicans have had a pretty good run. Especially when you take into account the social media driven accounts of the 'Blue Wave' and the contempt Trump is held in - especially abroad. As ever, the BBC and Sky just can't quite believe that Trump gets any votes at all given how execrable he is.


So how does he hold up the  centre, the swing votes, when the USA as a Country is as divided as Brexit Britain?


The answer is the economy, which through his pump priming, is going great guns indeed. Enough that people who have jobs, can apply for jobs and see wage growth are happy. Happy enough to vote for more of the same, even with all the terrible rhetorical baggage that comes with the President.


Overall, Trumps divide and rule is not a great way for us to drive human society forward. However, for the Tories in Government, a salutary lesson will be that even if they deliver a fudged half-Brexit, if they focus on getting the economy ticking over, job growth and wage growth, then Corbyn and McDonnell will never get the look in - after all, their ideological baggage is at least as bad as the Tories and certainly worse in some areas.


Sadly, the soft Tories we have are not clear enough on the economic development of the Country and instead are playing to Labour's tune of throwing money at the NHS and public services. There is time to change this around though over the next few years if hey can get their act together - which of course, is another story...

What will replace Corbyn?

I can't claim any political soothsaying baubles, especially in the 21st Century where politics has been cast, across the world, into a dark abyss since the Financial Crisis and growing global demographic crisis.


However, I can opine that Jeremy Corbyn will not be Prime Minister of the UK - except in the unlikely event of some emergency election foisted by Parliament in the next few months. Given what happened to the Tories just last year, there is zero chance of this coming to pass.


His toxicity of views has alienated far too many people for Labour to gain position as the largest party. Worryingly, it seems for many in what is becoming a cult following, his peaceful grandpa exterior is enough cover for his enablement of hard politics - race and class hatred have exploded under his 'peaceful' leadership. But I can't see more than 40% of people really falling for this and putting and X in the box for such extremism. He has done well, when UKIP followed a similar path they topped out at far less support, albeit they did not have the Labour machine to buttress them.


But what will come next? Firstly, he is elderly so the excuse of age is ready made for him to step aside. The obvious next leader is John McDonell, but he too shares the same baggage which has done for Corbyn, so there is no point to that. Then the challenge is the rest of the left wingers, your Clive Lewis' of this world, are very crap indeed and would be exposed very quickly. Even worse than the Tory opponents, my to my incredulity.


In the middle of the Party there are some more likely, albeit odd, candidates such as Emily Thornberry - but I can't see them at the moment seizing the crown from the ultra-lefties. It would be seen as too much of a betrayl when the beloved Grandpa is already exiting the stage - if anything, Momentum will be trying to find a more shouty and righteous voice for the far left. So it is as of now almost impossible to see what we will have post-Corbyn. The left need a person who cold actually be Prime Minister, not another Neil Kinnock.


One huge downside of all this is that the Tories are mucking about too, faffing with May whilst struggling to identify the next generation who she skilfully does not promote - perhaps Javid or Hunt will be the next in charge. At least the Tories have people of experience and substance, the left are fetishing those who are oppressed and have done nothing but complain - neither of which will allow them to win an election let alone achice much once in power.


Is this correct, or is it yet more wishful thinking on my part?

Brexit - at last, perhaps

So we are off, the first round of negotiations has started. David Davis, a solid pair of hands if not spectacular, has laid out the terms -


Leaving the EU
Leaving the Single Market
Leaving the Customs Union


This has not made Barnier very happy, nor the Remain media who are now starting on their long campaign of 'UK failing at negotiations" which will be a very dull and uninspiring commentary for the next two years.


It will, even if untrue, do for the Tory party. Their reward for achieving Brexit will be ballot box defeat, a la Churchill and 1945.


This of course is dependent on May holding on as Prime Minister for some time, which again the media are trying their best to prevent. I can only hope she is strong enough to realise that now the election is kind of won, she can really settle in for a year or two before quitting - enough to give time to the Brexit team to have more of less completed the negotiations.


Oddly, the piece I see a lot of commentators missing is that there is this 'negotiation failure' mantra. Actually, with the terms above there is little to negotiate in reality - basically we agree a big settlement payment, Irish border issue and EU citizens rights - then onto a trade deal. The trade deal may end up in a transitional agreement, but as it will be for goods and not services, this is really not that hard to do.


An actual negotiation, which Labour and others are ignorantly promoting as part of their populist binge, of trying to stay in the Single Market but with restricted immigration - that would be tough to do! Sensibly, we are not even trying it.


As a final anecdote, I did meet a junior UK negotiator rather randomly the other day (civil servant, not politician), they were of the view if the media just dropped the pressure a bit everyone would be pleasantly surprised at how successful the chosen strategy will be.

Jeremy Corbyn could be the Trump act in the UK

After the very interesting discussion of BQ's excellent posts yesterday re the narrow Trump win in America, I thought we should continue the theme today.


The main lessons from the US elections and Brexit:


1 - People are fed up with Political Correctness and the Media push of all things liberal; equally they are cowed to speak out, ruining polls and making the public/private discourse in the Anglosphere discombobulated.


2 - Establishment=Bad (not that Merkel got the memo yet when you see her response to Trump, means she is toast next year though at least). Candidates like Hillary can't win nor Cameron.


3 - Anti-Establishment figures can be very radical indeed and still get elected on very weak, populist platforms.


4 - Polling is wrong, real people matter and the crowds of Trump v Hillary and crowds of Leave vs Remain are good evidence for this sea-change.


All this could be very good for Jeremy Corbyn;


- He is anti-establishment
- He has a weak, populist policy platform
- He is not an Establishment figure


On the other hand;


- He loves political correctness and does not play the blame immigration game.
- He is left-wing at a time when the Anglosphere is electing right-wing populists.
- He is not new, he has been around for a while which means by the time there is an election people may well have made up their minds.


Overall, there is reason to think Labour will do much better than expected with Corbyn given the developments in real world political economy of late. The Tory party may or may not prove competent to deliver Brexit. UKIP will only take on the Trump mantle with a strong, charismatic leader and they have just lost that one in Farage.


My personal call will be that it will not be Corbyn though. Too much of his personality is projected onto to him by willing believers. Trump and Farage are the opposite, leading through incitement of the Outrage Bus. Corbyn's lack of charisma and penchant for hang-wringing will not in the end be enough to carry him over the line (barring crazy events, like massive Brexit recession or some such).

Brown/Balls/Osborne...and now May/Hammond

I don wonder sometimes, how the economic centre of UK politics has been dragged so far to the left.


Ever since Ken Clarke, a acknowledged lefty Tory, left office in 1997 we have not had a decent Chancellor or Prime Minister who believes in capitalism.


Yet we have had a few changes of Government and people during this time, getting on for 20 years now. If anything, the speech by Teresa May today is even more left -wing that one that Ed Milliband would have dared to give. In fact, perhaps she is intent on seeing off Corbyn by out-flanking him on the Marxist left.


Massive state intervention has never been a good idea, never. I give you the Soviet Union as a lesson, I also give you China in about 5 years time too. I give you 1970's UK.


But this is what May wants, already we can see in the horrific scarcity of talent on her front bench from the simply dreadful Amber Rudd to the gaffe-prone Brexiteers, they sing in unison an anti-business and anti-capitalist dirge.


Of course we want to limit immigration, but blaming companies is not the right answer nor is trying to turn them into a police state.


Of course, we want stable utility prices, but not by Government decree; this is how they try to do it in Venezuela and Zimbabwe and we have seen the end of the film already. We want steady prices because there is a balance between supply and demand.


Market and capital based solutions are often the best answer we have ever developed, not perfect, not without downsides, but better than nanny-knows-best Government dictat.


It is a disgrace that 20 years of Government have seen frankly no real development of thought or innovation and instead politicians decree the same statist nonsense whatever side of the floor they are from. Perhaps they think they are clever as this is big tent politics. maybe it is, but it is terrible for our living standards.


What a shower they are, Labour of course are even worse, led by genuine communists. I fear a frightful few years ahead of constant backtracking and obvious policy errors.

Grammar Schools - why now?

It is weird that Prime Minister May has kicked off with Grammar schools as her first non-Brexit policy.


Hinkley and Heathrow are there (although both very hard).


Education has been slowly improving and there is already as dispute with the Doctors so winding up teachers is going to double trouble.


And for what? Grammar certainly helps a few but it also causes problems too as the other schools are filled with lower attainment kids. What about streaming in schools as a non-selective way of doing it?


Grammars' are not in the Manifesto from the last election, so the House of Lords will vote it down anyway.


It must be something she has held dear to her for life which she now wants to offer to all; a crusade if you like. Sadly it comes too with a notion of 100% religious schools which I am dead against as these are divisive to the country and we have enough religion as it is, particularly as we will have hard line Muslim schools now allowed - just what the Country needs.


I guess it will be wildly popular mind, so perhaps that is the simple answer after all.

Osborne scraps tax credit cuts

- Backs off in the face of opposition

- Replaced by heroic forecasting of economic growth in next 5 years

- Huge cuts to transport budget and other non-skollznhozpitals spending

A good political 'budget' shoots all Labour foxes.

I wonder though, if this timidity is shown now, what is going to happen when the economy turns south in the next few years?

Quite tempting to pay £3 to elect Corbyn...

The height of the silly season approaches. Perhaps this year we thought it would all be about Germans getting lynched on Greek holidays or vice versa.

Instead we are treated to Grade A* charade of a leadership election by the Labour party. The candidates appear to be the wife of someone who would have been OK, a token northerner who can wear a suit, a muesli eating character straight out of Viz and an earnest handwringer whispering against the gale.

It's brilliant fun, I was a bit sad when UKIP had their 'Farage Farrago' but by comparison they handled it like a grown up bunch of adults.

But would it be right to waste £3 on the Labour election? Whilst I was not that interested a week ago the writings of the likes of Lord Finklestein and Matthew Parris are normally a good sign of what to do - i.e. the opposite. They are very keen on trying not to stir up the far left.

However, the far left are well stirred up, there is this thing called the Scottish Nationalist Party and they show no signs of giving up and going home for a hot toddy.

So they are wrong, as always.

But can Jeremy Corbyn win, are the early 1980's back in fashion to that extent - its quite likely, more so than the 1990's being back in fashion as it is too soon for that.

What would a Corbyn win mean, well for me it would mean a lot of very easy blog posts for a few years. For UKIP it would mean a lot of very easy votes to sweep up and for the Country, not much as the Tories are the Government anyway for the foreseeable.

Should I waste £3. Given I am not a member of any party currently, joining Labour is not even morally dishonest - people have lots of varied reasons to join political parties after all......

"What do you want me to do, write a thank you note?"

I was thinking this morning of a post when low and behold, Guido has sort of beaten me to it:

http://order-order.com/2015/05/20/theres-lunch-money-left/#_@/MMpkgwyjrOq9hg

I was thinking of all the career ending naivety that Liam Byrne exposed when he left a note for Danny Alexander in 2010, saying 'there is no money left.' To his successor in the Treasury.

I was wondering what note Danny Alexander would have left. There is a fine history here. In the 1970's Jim Callaghan took over from Reggie Maudling - Callaghan found a note saying -

"Good luck old cock. Sorry to leave it in such a mess."

The of course there was the quote above, from Gordon Brown after taking over in 1997 and being told the economy was in the best state it had ever been in after the 18 years of Tory rule- displaying all the good traits of humbleness and good humour we came to expect from him.

This time where are we...on the one hand some of the damage of 2008/9 has been well repaired  - the deficit is shrinking (although not under control), the tax base is rising a little, inflation is low.

But of course we have huge workfare and welfare, the overall national debt is spiralling and the world economy is experiencing various shocks with one to come from Greece highly likely.

Also - note to Cameron - we have a big deficit at the height of the boom - so the accusation against Brown could well come back to haunt the Conservatives one day!

But I wonder what Danny Alexander has written to Mr Hands - something very anodyne I expect given what happened to the last note!