Wednesday 21 November 2018

Thoughts needed; What do we need to do to stop a rigged referendum?

Fast coming up the aisle today is the failure of May's agreement in Parliament.

There are too many Tory rebels, too few Labour rebels, hatred from very different angles by the various nationalist parties (including Lib Dems in this group as  EU Quisling/Vichy nationalists) for any vote to pass.

As such, the Tories are going to be very reticent to force and General Election on the back of a confidence vote  - but that may come about.

The DUP, surely, will not make the Government fall in order to get the Irish Nationalist supporting Corbyn as PM - if they think Brexit is bad news for them....

So then we will be at the point where another referendum, which not long ago I bet money on not happening (!), will come to pass.

And here is where the remainer game is, in referendum you need a decisive result, so the two options the remainers will get is this:

A) Leave the EU with May's Withdrawal Agreement
B) Remain in the EU

May will agree to this as she will think A) vindicates her position and she can win. B) Pleases remainers and is May's preferred option to no deal.

For the country as a whole, it is a disgrace as it is a classic EU stitch up to which Barnier, Weygand and Selmayr will say the following -

"Here English plebs, is your choice between two things that you don't want. If you choose not to participate then, ha!, you don't really believe in democracy after all. So now vote and betray yourselves you racist scum..etc etc."

There is a decent chance of the above happening and the ERG folk have shown themselves not competent to oppose this (they would not have the votes in parliament to stop this bill for a start).

What can be done if this comes to pass...thoughts welcome in the comments.


DJK said...

I've just read Dominic Cummings's blog post of 23rd May on how the Treasury and Cabinet Office stitched up the whole process so the outcome was complete surrender to the EU. As you say, the inevitable next step is a referendum where the options are BRINO or Remain.

Before the referendum I told anybody who asked that it was safe to vote leave because the government would never allow it to happen in reality. Even so, I'm shocked at how cynical this has all been.

The only rational response to all of this is VOTE CORBYN at the next election. After all, it doesn't matter which apes stand up in the HoC, the civil servants run everything.

GridBot said...

Think the only answer to this CU is surely; to absolutely break the establishment?

Short of a modern take on Fawkes' 1605 plot then the only other option is a higher power buying off the politicos (think they've already been bought by the eu/other establishment interest groups)...


Corbyn + leave the country?

so i guess the real question is, where are we all moving to?

BlokeInBrum said...

Hang them all,

every last one of them.

But joking aside, it looks like the fix is in.

There are too few Conservatives in the cabinet and on the back benches who are willing to risk giving up their careers for this.

Of those few who are, they have been out maneuvered and sidelined at every turn.
Too little, too late.

Jan said...

There's still time for the "no confidence" option and a new Brexiteer Tory leader but they need to get on with it.

Tony Harrison said...

Good analysis, all too believable. Lost count of the number of times I've slagged off the Tories during the past quarter-century or so - i.e. since I stopped voting for them... But really, the current shambles is very much a logical continuation of their pitifully corroded state: an absence of grit, organisation, patriotism, country before Party (even Wilson said that ultimately for him it was about Queen & Country), decisiveness. The Tory Party is the embodiment of something that lost its way ages ago, stumbled around in the woods trying and failing to find a way out, and is enmeshed in terminal decadence. Pity Farage no longer runs UKIP but I'll continue voting for them for want of anything better.

E-K said...

Any participation in a referendum is a pledge to uphold the outcome and an admission of its legitimacy.

The best outcome we can hope for is that the Leave vote was with the biggest turnout in history and Remain with the smallest.

Charlie said...

I don't see what's in it for May and the Tories.

Second referendum with a decision to remain means the return of UKIP, except this time with double (triple?) the votes.

And it probably adds another few million to the "never voting Tory again" pile.

Just, why?

andrew said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
andrew said...

How to stop another referendum coming to pass:

1 - Demonise the WTO option - this is Leave or Remain
Explain how a WTO exit will cost jobs in the UK and blood in ireland.
Make it clear only right wing gammon nutters want a WTO exit
Make it clear it is the deal or remain.

2 - Step back from party politics
Make the vote a vote of conscience.
The rump of the ERG will vote against you no matter what.
It would force Labour to make it a vote of conscience too (so many of their MPs are in brexit constituencies)

3 - Step forward into party politics
Make it clear any con voting no will have no future as they are voting to damage the UK _and_ vote for remain (see (1)) even if there is no whip.

Any labor MP in a brexit constituency with a small majority who wants a job in 2022 will need to think v.v. carefully even if they disagree with the deal.

That should get you over the line.

(Disclaimer: I would prefer we remain, but (SNP please note) do not really think I could stand another vote on this until about 2056 by which time my dementia will convince me there have been no other votes)

Anonymous said...

Someone who spells the word “labor” probably shouldn’t have a vote here.

Anonymous said...

My little tale in the compo post may yet come to pass...

There's nothing that can be done that isn't already ready to spin.

Complain about a second ref? Why Parliament has clearly failed, and so the People must have their say.

Civil disobedience? Swivel-eyed loons!

All that can be done is, as EK suggests, give the 2nd referendum a miss.

If May truly goes down that path, can I suggest a grassroots organising of a silent protest. Get as many people as possible outside as many Tory MP offices, for thirty minutes holding up a placard stating "Never voting Tory again." Nothing nasty. Nothing threatening. Just a quiet, dignified message that millions of votes have just been pissed away.

The national press will lap it up, Farage will doubtlessly make hay and an awful lot of Tories will be shitting themselves, and PMQs ought to be interesting.

Thud said...

Don't care anymore, only worried about corby as him and his merry band of chekists will see us all off.

Anonymous said...

There should in no way be a second vote / referendum etc. This is a classic EU play as it queers the pitch and just adds to the confusion. The mandate was clear.

There won't be a no-deal Brexit as the cost to both sides is too high but again the EU are playing up the cost to the UK and playing down the cost to their industries.

We play the long game and refuse to sign until a better deal is offered. But we need a new person (competent) in the PM role for that. And it won't be Boris.

Leadson or Gove.

jim said...

I don't think we will get another referendum. Apart from being a visible failure of Parliament the media support for a hard Brexit seems less likely now. Sunny Uplands have proved to be vapourware.

We have had over two years of droning on and achieved nothing, the Telegraph and the Sun may still support some sort of hard Brexit but I doubt the Mail will. So, if you want a hard Brexit a referendum looks to be a risky route. Which leaves the ERG screwed.

Mrs May's deal or Remain? I suspect we will get Mrs May's deal. This is the cowardly outcome for Parliament and the best outcome for the EU. The political pressure and line of least resistance is in that direction. The EU can then pick the bones of the UK at its leisure and the parliamentary vegetables can mutter 'will of the people'.

A week or so back the local Labour party were on the street with 'Love Corbyn, Hate Brexit' tee shirts etc etc. Could it be that Labour is playing a double game and using Brexit to destroy Tory votes? We shall see.

Anonymous said...

If we get May's deal, how legally binding will it be - what's stopping either the Leave side to push for further separation or Remainers to push for further integration?

What will prevent what we've experienced for the last 2 years becoming the permanent political landscape until either side decisively wins to the point where it's neigh on impossible to go in the other direction?

personalmusing said...

"If we get May's deal, how legally binding will it be"

It is an international treaty with no workable exit mechanism. It is about as strong as it comes in legally locking in a deal. This gives EU everything, UK nothing - and has no exit. Truly all to play for and EU expected to go all out if UK might be dumb enough to sign this.

hovis said...

Interesting to see, is Remain really an option? If so and what terms ? I'd bet certainly won't be the same pre-referendum - so that won't but MUST be spelled out.

Also will this referendum be advisory? ... after all we are told by our remeiner friends all referendums are advisory.

And if no parliament can bind futre parliaments ...

We will not be any form of functioning nation state (havent truly been for a while) if the May deal happens or the expected form of Remain Ultra comes to pass.

Either way abolish parliament - it now serves no useful purpose, let the pretense fall away.

patently said...

'Remain' is not and has never been an option. EU membership is a continuously moving feast of ever closer union, so this option should really be summarised as "jump back on the train of integration".

May's deal? I remain surprised that the question of whether a country shold have a say in the laws that govern it is apparently up for discussion at all. Resolve this, and add an exit mechanism (accepting that an early exit is effectively a reversion to a WTO-terms Brexit), and May's deal is probably a decent one. Leave these points in and it is so obviously a trap that I'm simply staggered that apparently reasonable, intelligent people recommend it.

WTO-terms Brexit? That's the true "backstop". It needs to stay on the table so that it doesn't happen. Take it off the table, and we end up with May's deal and a real possibility of No Deal.

And if we have a referendum asking to choose either May's deal or Remain? I'll scrawl "WTO terms Exit Please" on the ballot paper, and it will be the last one I cast.

Edward B said...

Mass appeal to the Queen not to sign away her (delegated) sovereign rights to a body we will have no influence over and with no mechanism to reclaim those rights.

Anonymous said...

If we get a public vote on May's deal vs ever-closer integration, I've cast my last vote and I've filled out my last tax return.

No taxation without representation.

E-K said...

Thud. I simply don't trust myself to vote anymore and *keep the others out* is why I've been doing it for 20 years.

I've had enough of it.

E-K said...

We've already had a rigged referendum and now we have a rigged Leave.

Cameron (and the whole of Remain) were emphatic that Leave was a cliff edge vote.

It turned out that Leave wasn't even an option.

The word 'deal' were not even mentioned. Cameron had already tried to do a deal and come back with thin gruel. This was simply about Leave or Remain under the Cameron deal.

Now Brino is all sewn up we have now moved on from Project Fear to Project Make the People Think it was Their Idea.

I cannot trust myself to vote again.

Y Ddraig Goch said...

"What do we need to do to stop a rigged referendum?"

Umm. In practice we now have 3 options.

1. May's deal, possibly with some minor tweaks.
2. Remain, possibly on worse terms than before.
3. No-deal Brexit.

Thanks to this government's abject failure to prepare for option 3, "No-deal Brexit" really is now "cliff-edge Brexit" and it's hard to see a majority voting for it, or parliament listening if they did. So I don't think there is any way to stop a rigged referendum, if in fact any referendum happens at all.

The consensus seems to be that the civil service deviously sabotaged Brexit and that at least some politicians, eg Hammond, were complicit in this. I would like to float an alternative.

The civil service aren't deviously clever; they are lazy and a bit thick. They failed to prepare for Brexit in exactly the same way that they have regularly failed at all sorts of things for decades. Olly Robbins isn't the mastermind behind the thwarting of the peoples' will; he is just out of his depth and desperately hoping that it will all go away. This is consistent with civil service history. No civil service venture ever has an upside surprise. We never see a civil service project that completes early (or at least on-time) with better than expected results (or at least as promised) and under budget (or at least on-cost). It never happens. Civil service ventures have one of two outcomes: disappointing and outright failure.

Given this, it would have required extensive use of cattle prods to get any real preparation for a no-deal Brexit. This government isn't up to that and the alternative (Corbyn) would be dramatically worse. As far as I can see Britain no longer has access to the kind of leadership that could make anything as challenging as Brexit actually work. On that basis, we would be better off remaining. Not because the remainiacs are right, but because even a prison cell comes with regular meals and a roof that doesn't leak, and if you can no longer take care of yourself, that might be the best deal on offer.

What follows from that, is that the British civil service is over-rated and over-funded. If we remain - and May's deal is remaining - then we should shrink the Whitehall civil service significantly and pay the ones that survive the cull a good deal less - in line in fact, with their modest contribution.

I think E-K in the past has suggested that if we remain in the EU then
parliament has little purpose. I'm adding Whitehall to the list of things that no longer need funding if we stay in the EU. Maybe that would focus their little minds.

Anonymous said...

I was always worried it would come to this, despite CU and ND being optimistic 'it'll be sorted'. The EU are emboldened by their huge 5th column.

It looks as if the contract between Parliament and People has been irretrievably broken, and modern British democracy has been weighed in the balance and found wanting.

"The Government will implement what you decide" - David Cameron, 2016.

Suff said...

There never was a negotiation about leaving. Parliament and the civil service didn’t want it so it was never going to happen. All the BS in the media over the last two years, was purely to support the pretence that we live in a democracy. Right from the start hard Brexit has been removed as an option. Anybody in business knows, if your not prepared to walk away from a deal, you’re gonna get screwed. Democracy and the British people have been spit roasted between the EU and Westminster. Death of democracy, what a tribute to the Remembrance centenary. Shut down Westminster and hang the lot of em.

MyLateSaturdayNightName said...

There can be no In/Out referendum.
Thats been done.

A second referendum on Mays Deal/No deal is fine with me.
No deal would win hands down.

Unfortunately this would trigger 'independence' votes in Wales and Scotland.

The more intelligent, and less selfish, propostion would be an 'English Independence' vote.
That is English Independence from the UK.
Again, this would likely win.

Take heart, John Bull, its time to wake up and tend to your land; whatever the cost.