Thursday 13 December 2018

Well that is a fine mess you got us into

Jesus Wept. I mean, the whole Brexit thing is unreal in its perfect realisation slapstick, fine balance and pure frustration.

Image result for laurel and hardy
So May wins a vote, close enough to a victory that she can engage in her airport fever as per Nick Drew's insightful post of yesterday. But weak enough to know that we are merely at Chapter X in the book with quite a few pages left yet.

With over 100 votes against her she is deep in the well of misfortune. Even if half of those think 'OK, will of the party, let's back her now' the rest won't. So she is 50 votes short in Parliament for her deal. Plus the DUP still hold the golden ticket and are in no mood to play nice, never have been have they? Labour are run by commie nutjobs who won't act in the national interest when they are in Government, let alone when they are the opposition.

So her deal, with minor tweaks for Europe is dead. How have the MP's, who disagree with the deal which is her only policy, voted her back in? Madness, but then, we know this now. Brexit has driven the political and media class insane with anger, rage and confusion.

So the deal dies, we then either somehow tick out to a managed hard Brexit for which the rebels in Parliament may be able to defeat (oh, that will be fun with Soubry and et al voting with Labour etc). Or May conspires to create a BINO with Labour in return for an election (she said she would not do this last night, so unlikely if not impossible). Or after the 'Deal' fails in Parliament May delays article 50 somehow and orders a new referendum (Deal or Remain - the EU will only extend if their preferred option is on the Ballot paper).

All with the Maybot in charge, thinking only of kicking the can until next week, with no vision or strategy anywhere to be seen and a dearth of quality advisors in her Cabinet and party.

A fine mess indeed.


E-K said...

A mess created because they didn't do what the voters actually voted for.

Leave was the so called *cliff edge* choice. It was definitely NOT "Go back and prostrate yourself before the EU"

This was with malice.

Oh well.

When Corbyn gets in just ask yourself who will have voted for him.

That's right. Those wise young students who don't believe in unicorns and who know best on the EU.

NielsR said...

If there is a new referendum, I imagine it'll be "Deal or Remain++". Never let a crisis go to waste, and all that, make Art 50 as toxic as possible.

Outcome of that (if it goes ahead) likely to be substantially reduced turnout, significant swing to Remain on %age, and Continuity Ukip. Everyone will claim victory. It'll be "omnishambles: infinity war".

E-K said...

Art 50 extension will probably be with the EU's preference of choices on any referendum ballot slip.

Tony Harrison said...

Re "Brexit has driven the political and media class insane with anger, rage and confusion," I see very little genuine rage or anger, just a certain amount of faux-rage from the paper tigers of the ERG and a few others. But I do see lots of confusion - plus transparent self-interested shrinking away from decision, apathy, cynical indifference, indolence and cowardice. One hopes it doesn't signify our terminal decline, Rome invaded by the Goths or whatever. Perhaps it's just another traditional event whereby we shilly, shally, then at the last posible moment get ourselves together and do something courageous, noble and effecual. One can but hope.

decnine said...

One of the true statements that have been made over the past couple of days is that there is no majority in Parliament for MayDeal or NoDeal. However, the exit date is baked into the Withdrawal Act. (Ignore, for the moment, the Henry VIII power in the Act to delay the exit date).

Therefore, NoDeal is the default setting. The only way Parliament can avoid NoDeal is to Meaningfully Vote for SomeOtherDeal ... or to pass a new Act which cancels Brexit. A Cancel Brexit Act would probably be required for the EU to allow us to withdraw Article 50 in any case. What are the chances of such an Act getting through?

Gridlock in Parliament ensures a NoDeal exit. The Henry VIII power can slip the date of exit - but only if the EU gives permission.

To misquote Gordon Gecko, "Gridlock is Good".

personalmusing said...

@EK "When Corbyn gets in just ask yourself who will have voted for him."

If he gets in it will be as much May being allowed to spend 3 years dicking around being nasty or incompetent that pushes waiverers into the "why not switch camp", and reduces the turn-out of the conservative base.

Tory MPs fail to be long term greedy - they have sat back and let her destroy the conservative reputation for grown up execution to fix problems (say running the brexit process properly), have pushed statist solutions to non-problems, and thus have no arguments for why they should be voted in.

Jan said...

The "Establishment" language in all of this has been appalling. "No deal" is apparently a cliff edge/will create chaos/hard Brexit etc etc. I've even heard politicians on the BBC saying no-one wants it and it will be a disaster.

The people who are angry about all this are the electorate who voted to leave by a majority. We didn't mean BRINO. At long last I'm hearing "managed no-deal" or how about a "WTO deal" or anything else which puts it in a positive light for once.

The sky will not fall in when a proper Brexit happens. The establishment's "project fear" has a lot to answer for.

...........or is it all an elaborate plot to get us to a proper Brexit in the end...........?

andrew said...

h/t guido throwaway comment

... "The fact that over two thirds of her backbenchers expressed no confidence in her is a stark reminder of just how little support there is for her deal in Parliament."

how he knows that from a secret ballot I don't know but the spirit of the point is well made.

it may well horrify many civil servants but the only way to implement no deal in the timescale is to simplify / reduce the scope of govt regulation.

if we are on a no deal track, I doubt the EU are going to be very helpful.

Charlie said...

andrew - he knows because 150-odd are ministers, PPS etc, whose votes of confidence are guaranteed. 2/3 of the remaining Tory MPs voted no confidence.

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't it be good if after the next election half the MPs in the Commons were Independents ?

Not likely, unfortunately.

Don Cox

Al said...

It's now down to Labour. May will focus on alliances with center Labour MPs to repeal article 50.
Labour can no longer sit on the fence as the Tories are now two gridlocked parties.

This is my take on it anyway.

personalmusing said...

May "my focus is to get the assurances to get my deal through".

Always a good sign when your counterparty refuses to give a legally binding commitment but is happy to reassure you.

and May is clearly going to spend the next month offering labour mps whatever they want in order to get her deal through.

dearieme said...

Over the last few centuries "we" have executed King Charles I, harried King James II & VII into exile, changed the royal dynasty to the Hanoverians by Act of Parliament, and strong-armed Edward VIII into abdication.

How on earth can it be beyond us to end the current Monstrous Regiment of Woman?

dustybloke said...

There will be a second referendum.

It will comprise three questions:

1 Leave with no deal (Remember that a "deal" as a concept did not originally exist. It was an afterthought to enable a BINO)

2. Leave with a deal

3. Remain

Thus ensuring that Leave is split and Remain wins, Article 50 is revoked and Parliament can relax and get back to concentrating on their expenses, their property porfolios, which is the best restaurant in London and does anyone know some escorts and rent boys who won't blab to the Sun?

Isitsohard said...

I'll float an idea but declare I'm not in favour of "no deal" but I'll fight for their views.

It appears there is a sequence here

1. Leave
2. Transition
3. Best Endeavors
4. No Deal.

1 and 2 are known. 3 is not determined but should be. And if the EU fail we leave having given UK industry sufficient time to prepare. After all there has been nearly 2 years wasted with faffing around. Business needs clarity and replacing the "backstop" with "no deal" gives clarity, squares the DUP/ERG and time for those who need time to plan.

Bill Quango MP said...

Tess has said she doesn't expect to get any concessions at the euro meeting tonight.

What was that about Airport Fever ?

AndrewZ said...

"Tess has said she doesn't expect to get any concessions at the euro meeting tonight"

That's consistent with the "political theatre" interpretation of May's trip to Brussels. Start by setting expectations as low as possible to create an atmosphere of dread. Then ensure lots of melodramatic media coverage of tense negotiations, with moments of hope that are suddenly dashed to crank up the tension. Then, just when it looks hopeless our valiant heroine turns the tables on her enemies and returns in triumph waving a piece of paper that promises whatever you want it to mean, even if in reality it means nothing at all.

It's cynical and manipulative. But the media will go along with any narrative that makes a good story because their business is telling stories, not providing objective information about current events. Conservative MPs will fall into line because that's what they always do when faced with the prospect of opposing their own party on anything really significant. The fear of a "No Deal" economic crisis and the fear of a Corbyn government will also push them in that direction.

It's all smoke and mirrors but it will work and when the Withdrawal Agreement is finally put before Parliament it will pass.

Charles said...

Well one unexpected benefit of Mrs May has been a remarkable decline in annoying articles saying that more women are needed in senior positions because they are somehow better at leadership and management. I have known quite a few senior managers, of both sexes, and they were good, bad or indifferent and their gender had little to do with it. In fact most of the senior managers I have known were, or became, damaged by the ego massage and the knowledge that when you get to a certain status you can never fail, at worst you may have to change one cushy billet for another.

The plan for Brexit is Mrs May’s. She fought for it, she thinks it’s perfect. The only way out is to get rid of her, by protest on the streets if all else fails. She will bring Shin Fein in to replace the DUP if she has to.

E-K said...

I'm reading from Remainers to 'rebels' "You are outnumbered in Parliament. You are outnumbered in the polls."

The only polls that count are general elections and referendum.

We shall see what The People think in due course.

I now realise that 'rebel' is used incorrectly to describe a minority. The 'rebels' are, in fact upholding a democratic win - the real rebels are the majority in Parliament at the moment and if they weren't our country would not be in crisis.

Bill Quango MP said...

EK - As they say in Alabama,
"If at first you don't secede,
try, try and try again."

E-K said...

V.v good !