Who fares best against Trump?

The Donald is, by his own estimation, a legendary deal-maker and negotiator.  Well, he does get (some) things done, and indeed sometimes gets his own way.  But how much of this is deal-making?  And how good are his deals?  His reputation in the New York real estate sector sucks is, errr, equivocal.

He's been in action quite a bit this year!  So there's something to score: and we can form an early view on his performance as a negotiator up against several prominent counterparties.  

vs China:  Trump is losing, hands down.  The Chinese are playing him like a fiddle, and he's steadily backing down on the tariff war, step by step.  Yet surely, by every standard of US foreign policy as espoused in the past decade by both his and the Democrat party, this is the only game that truly matters.  Sheesh... this really matters!  - did he think he could simply swat Xi aside one spring afternoon while he was mostly busy, errr, earning his Nobel Peace prize, annexing the whole North American land mass, remodelling the White House, peddling his crap merchandise, running feuds against everyone he's ever had a grievance against etc etc etc?

vs Russia:  jury still out, perhaps, but Putin won't be particularly disconcerted by their exchanges to date.  Relative to the extraordinary prior claims made by Trump ("peace in Ukraine in one day!"), and his huffing and puffing about "consequences", the current state of play is pretty demeaning for him.

vs Mexico and Canada:  given how things looked at the start of the whole tariffs round, OK-ish for M & C.  They've mostly stood their ground, and the world hasn't fallen down around their ears by any means.  Makes Trump's early rhetoric look pretty silly - and that's just on trade.  As for annexing Canada ... (I think we can hear the laughter from here - and Greenland probably isn't too worried just now, either.)  

vs India:  jury definitely still out, because India has options.  Trump has dealt his blow - but will he get any pleasure from what happens over the next months and years?  Not at all clear.  How clever is it to send Modi scuttling to Beijing, hmm?

vs Starmer:  surely, 2-1 to Trump.  Starmer has chosen to grovel, in return for some relative 'gains' (negatively defined, which is the only thing we can say) when compared to the EC, see below.  But it has suited Trump to give a little pat on the head to the biggest arse-licker, just pour encourager les autres.

vs the EC:  a seriously bad result for the EU, courtesy of the unelected EC which holds much of Europe's fate in their hands.  Feeble stuff.  A bit of a surprise, given how comprehensively the EC wiped the floor with Cameron and May.  But from this distance, that probably tells us more about them than it does about the EC.

vs Iran:  personally, I can't call this one yet.  Need to keep it in view: could tell us quite a lot.

Crazy man, crazy times.

ND

Sizewell: another win for French nuclear blackmail

Among the large numbers bandied around by Rachel Reeves was of course well over £10bn of UK money for Sizewell C: and FID is yet to be taken!  Exactly whether this dosh is envisaged as outright cash (as has been the case with the billions already gifted to EDF, even before FID), or dumped straight onto electricity bills, or a combination, I have not yet discerned.  

It's still outrageous - at best a humongous leap of faith, the beneficiary of which is a French concern (and indeed the French state) that has proven itself many, many times over to be unworthy of trust in such matters.  In return for what?  A plant that, even on the most ambitious and optimistic assumptions, could not be generating electricity before the next-Parliament-but-two, and in the meantime will have cost all of us a great deal of non-returnable money.  Who said politicians' horizons extend only as far as the next election at best, and the next headline at worst?

Well of course none of this is to be taken at face value.  They are already pitching for headlines reading "thousands of jobs", although as we know, the hi-tech jobs involved will without doubt be squarely located in France.  The sop of a bit of civil engineering for UK firms - and not even 100% of that, if Hinkley Point C is any guide, which of course it is explicitly meant to be!  If Keynesianism is the guiding theory, you could get a great deal more for your money on vastly more useful civil engineering projects that might actually make some kind of economic return decades sooner than SZC ever could.  Just keeping the money in the UK would be a start. 

And of course there are other short-term considerations, the giveaway being Mr Frog who, on the exact subject of demanding more money for both SZC and HPC (for which, contractually, EDF has sole responsibility) recently stated: "We [UK + France] need to stick together on many subjects - on Ukraine, on all dimensions of our relationship".  We may be sure he really means "cooperation on Small Boats", the carrot of which which the French continually dangle, and then promptly withdraw a couple of weeks later.  Oh, and we must pay for that "cooperation", too.  Such an easy game.

Why are successive UK PMs and Chancellors such soft touches?  Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne, May, Hammond, Johnson, Starmer, Reeves ... it's only been Sunak who has ever demurred, and then without any meaningful force.  The rest have all danced to EDF's protracted, staccato jig.  I despair.

ND

Is Boris really the worst Prime Minister for Covid?

Yesterday's excellent post on the dire May/Hammond combo made me think about how alternative realities may have come to pass. The events since 2016 have been very unpredictable and at many moments the history of the UK could have easily been different. A simple one would have been for the arch-remainers to sign up to May's BRINO for example. Oh, how they wish they did now to my constant joy. If they had, there would be no Boris government now, but continuity May until 2022, with the benefit of total reliance on the DUP. 

However, along comes covid, she dithers in March 2020. She would have dithered, as May was never decisive plus always had to seek the counsel of the DUP.  It would be as bad if not worse than Boris in the first wave and then with BRINO we would have signed up to the EU vaccine scheme with a much worse position now. Hammond would have been more cautious than Sunak and so the economy maybe inw worse shape than it is now, but that is harder to say as Sunak's profligacy we may come to regret.

or

Perhaps May loses to Corbyn in 2017 or somehow he become PM.

Along comes Covid, again dithering with the crazy team in Labour (Abbott, Burgon - remember these idiots?) then followed by a huge lockdown for months enabling a full on discussion about a socialist revolution in the UK to stop people ever working having to do Capitalist work again. Constant musing about nationalising broadband and the trains in the name of the pandemic. Nothing to do to really fix the pandemic as the Tankies think for them this is the 2nd coming for communism. Of course, Labour would also have signed up to EU vaccine scheme plus decided to declare that the poor people of the world and especially Palestinians need vaccines more than we do in the UK with our magnificent NHS. 

There are no other alternatives, Keir Starmer was not leader in any way to take over. This was the world as it could have been with only 3 choices - May, Corbyn or Boris. 

So in conclusion you can think Boris is a useless dud surrounded by incompetent fools - but look at the alternative, his 4/10 is still better either of the other options that we had. 

Corbyn and May must do a deal

They really must, Corbyn who I very much doubt understands the letter he signed to the Prime Minster, has actually come quite a long way towards a deal. Of the 5 points he rises, May already agrees on around 3 of them and the only real sticking point is on membership of the customs union and single market.


Of course, by staying in those we are not really leaving the EU, but are in spirit - but as we all now know, the UK did that a long time ago - the last couple of years are the messy, legalistic end of the divorce, not the flame out of romance in the relationship.


However, there are top reasons for a May-Corbyn deal. After all, the Maybot's plans is over, her utterly disastrous negotiation strategy has moved the UK close to a very economic challenging hard Brexit. For this, she needs to go. Corbyn too has been useless as of course he is too thick to understand anything complex and would rather be on a march singing a song about world hunger or bee population decline.


But a May-Corbyn deal to avoid hard Brexit would of course be toxic for both. May for betraying her already ungrateful party and Corbyn because his loony cult followers never tire of saying no deal must ever be done with evil Tories - let alone a deal which sees their precious remain dream end.


So would a deal have a very good upside, the end of the useless leadership of both May and Corbyn and also a sub-optimal EU exit - but one will limited short-term economic downside and an Exit at least? 

About last night and the morning after....

So, yesterday, PM May held a vote on her Withdrawal Agreement that she knew she would lose; and lost.


Now today Leader of the Opposition, Corbyn, is holding a vote of not confidence which in the Government which he knows he will lose.


Parliament has become, literally, political theatre. No one there wants to really engage with the political kryptonite of Brexit (except May and now we know nearly everyone disagrees with her).


I think it worth pointing our the key mistakes of late, such that a way forward can be found by not repeating errors:


1 - May did not get her own party, or indeed, any party onside. As such she lost badly. Next week then a much broader discussion must happen to discover what might be possible. Hate it as I do, she must reach out to Labour moderates to see what they would vote for.


2 - Corbyn can only oppose. His unicorn Brexit bullshit has harmed the process no end. If moderate Labour were in charge, already we would be headed to EFTA, the WA or some such. But Corbyn HATES TORIES, so at the moment there can be no bi-partisan deal. The Labour backbenchers need to reflect on where following their idiotic leader is taking them and the Country they claim to serve.


3- The ERG, confident they can somehow filibuster for no deal, are actually a busted flush. Not numerous enough to achieve their ends, they need urgently to find a position within the Overton Window of the possible. They dug the heals in over May's leadership forcing a vote, she is still there, they dug their heals in over vote and are still going to vote for May anyway (which shows how duplicitous they are, because it clearly demonstrates the thing they most want is their own jobs). Digging in is a failed strategy that needs to move on.


4- The Libs, SNP and assorted Second Vote merchants - Whilst creating a huge amount of media noise, they have achieved nothing apart from to help split the country on even more partisan lines. The Government is in charge and are saying no revocation of article 50 and no second referendum. When the Government survives its vote of no confidence, there should be some reflection about what in the real world would be the best deal from here (Full Customs Union and Membership of the single market should do it).


Really, having engineered a crisis between themselves, a bit less ideological shouting and a bit more willingness to move should see the UK easily move to a Norway type option. There is no majority for leave in parliament and no majority for remain in the Country - so a nice bit of fudge will have to suffice.

Remain only a hop, skip and a jump away now - Power from the People

So, as I have long suspected, Parliament is re-asserting its Authority to end a Brexit process it has never supported with its heart (whilst practically voting it through many times..).


It is important to see things for what they are, the rebel group of Tories in any other Government would have the whip withdrawn. They have defeated the Government on the Finance Bill and now voted with the Opposition (in reality if not in fact, due to it being a Tory amendment) to derail the Government's plans for Brexit.


May is no longer in control, even the Speaker of the House of Commons can push her and her Government around. Effectively now May is operating a minority Government, short of 20 seats. If there was say Yvette Cooper opposite, then many of the Tories would have defected and we would see a real change of Government.


As it is, the Remain group in Parliament of 400 MP's are rapidly moving towards the moment where cancelling Article 50 reaches the floor of the House and is voted through by the ex-Tories, LD's and Labour. Brexit will be over.


The only detail is whether they pretend to 'extend' Article 50 to show a further pretence of not quite over-ruling the referendum. In reality, this will only be the choice if they think they can get another referendum or General Election. In the world we are in, the Remainers would be crazy to hold another referendum which they could lose, when all they have to do is assert Parliamentary Authority to win now. Possibly, Labour MP's will want a General Election but I doubt it, as most of them don't want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister either.


The fly in the ointment maybe the EU itself, the price of revoking Article 50 might well be a referendum or indeed a commitment to remain for X years (something of a large can kick, say 5-10 years).


Again, nothing the Remainers cannot vote through with their Parliamentary majority. Of course, May herself is toast but she has been for a long-time. The Tories have one, very last chance of redemption, get rid of May, install Boris/Hunt or Gove, show they want a hard Brexit, kick out the Remainers and go into an election as the Party of the people.


Very interesting historically, neither Prime Minister nor Leader of the Opposition is in control of events - all the while Parliament is seeking to over-turn a decision of a national referendum against the will of the people as expressed. Truly amazing for this to come about - dare I say it, revolutionary!

Well that is a fine mess you got us into

Jesus Wept. I mean, the whole Brexit thing is unreal in its perfect realisation slapstick, fine balance and pure frustration.

So May wins a vote, close enough to a victory that she can engage in her airport fever as per Nick Drew's insightful post of yesterday. But weak enough to know that we are merely at Chapter X in the book with quite a few pages left yet.

With over 100 votes against her she is deep in the well of misfortune. Even if half of those think 'OK, will of the party, let's back her now' the rest won't. So she is 50 votes short in Parliament for her deal. Plus the DUP still hold the golden ticket and are in no mood to play nice, never have been have they? Labour are run by commie nutjobs who won't act in the national interest when they are in Government, let alone when they are the opposition.

So her deal, with minor tweaks for Europe is dead. How have the MP's, who disagree with the deal which is her only policy, voted her back in? Madness, but then, we know this now. Brexit has driven the political and media class insane with anger, rage and confusion.


So the deal dies, we then either somehow tick out to a managed hard Brexit for which the rebels in Parliament may be able to defeat (oh, that will be fun with Soubry and et al voting with Labour etc). Or May conspires to create a BINO with Labour in return for an election (she said she would not do this last night, so unlikely if not impossible). Or after the 'Deal' fails in Parliament May delays article 50 somehow and orders a new referendum (Deal or Remain - the EU will only extend if their preferred option is on the Ballot paper).


All with the Maybot in charge, thinking only of kicking the can until next week, with no vision or strategy anywhere to be seen and a dearth of quality advisors in her Cabinet and party.


A fine mess indeed.

May V Brown - Faceoff

OK, I really can't believe that the UK could ever have a worse Prime Minister than Gordon Brown. However, has this moment now been reached?


For a quick comparison:

1) Led UK to worst financial crisis in 100 years - £200 billion cost to the economy
2) Sold UK Gold reserves at an all time low - baking in a 'loss' of around £20 billion, double the cost of the ERM debacle
3) Signed Lisbon treaty in a cupboard with no referendum or acknowledgement
4) Enabled Tony Blair to ratchet up a high spend low tax economy
5) Plotted for years to become PM, only to lose election very badly when finally fought
6) Raised taxes spitefully on the day he left office to 50%

1) Plotted for years to become Prime Minster, only to very nearly lose and election she should have comfortably won against the worst ever opposition leader
2) Campaigned for Br, exit then led the most pathetic negotiation in history
3) Made political enemies even of her best friends like Damian Green
4) Did a deal with DUP to stay in Government that resulted in Government becoming impossible
5) Anti-Immigration stance throughout her career has impacted on culture of the Country
6) Completely lost control of Parliament resulting in no Governance at all


I wrote this out live, because I really thought she was awful, then recalled what Brown did and she has a long way to go yet. Not even on the same page as it happens. Still, hard to think of any other Prime Minister who has been less effective in the last 40 years other than Brown. Major looks competent by comparison.

May's last days

So now that the date of the 10th December seems to be firming up in Westminster, we can begin the process of writing the political obituary of Theresa May.


Currently, there is just no chance of the Withdrawal Agreement being passed in Parliament. As Nick Drew opined in our last piece, there is more chance of a complete collapse of support than anything else.


This is going to mean May wandering around, coming out of No 10 for updates for he next couple of weeks, trying to look Prime Ministerial, whilst all the while knowing the game is up. Two years spent negotiating a deal that fails and she will be in the same exit seat as Cameron with nowhere to go but obscurity.


It is going to be a sad time for her personally, all the work and stress with come to mean nothing. Perhaps if we remain in the EU in the end she will be happy that her overall mission was complete. I doubt it because remaining in the EU will also mean the Tories are dead, really dead and possibly so dead as to not be a realistic party anymore in the UK. After all, they will have held an vote that half the country did not want and then no implemented to alienate the other half. Goodnight Conservatives at that point.


So what can May do for the last few days that she has in power? Gordon Brown famously managed to raise income tax to 50% on virtually his last day, is there anything May could do in last swish of the Prime Ministerial wand? I sort of doubt it as she become very bitter, very quickly in the next week as she realises the deal is lost and the game is up for her.


In other news, all those Tory plotters had better get the band back together PDQ, they have one last bullet in the shape of a new Prime Minister and if they miss this time, its curtains.

Damn Uppity Proddies

It's no joke.


With much graft and heft, Team May has been slowly trying to get the good ship BINO to port. Despite all the leaks and a frankly underpowered engine, it has been heading for home.


As Nick Drew wrote yesterday, May has a battle plan, a really crap one, but a plan nonetheless. Corbyn's team are now trying to pretend he is pro-EU, a remarkably stupid proposal even by their own low standards. The ERG Tories are split because they must choose between loyalty and rebellion and that is not an easy decision for backbench Tories to make.


However, we have the DUP. The DUP are more of May's kind of enemy. Determined, Pig-headed and perhaps even a bit ignorant. The remain media will point out they don't speak for Norn' Ireland, but they do care. They have never sort to. They speak for themselves and their model is the SNP in Scotland.


What the DUP currently want is the same treatment for NI as the rest of the UK, something Southern Ireland and the EU long ago identified as the insoluble puzzle of Brexit - to their advantage.


Now, rational people might think the DUP would understand a bit of this and decide that, given they want Brexit, a bit of compromise would be a price worth pay.


COMPROMISE however, as we long know, is not something the DUP are given over too - just ask the gays!


Cutting off your nose to spite your face is a heroic action in their slightly warped world, standing firm against everybody is also to be respected - right or wrong does not come into it.


Thus perhaps it will come to pass that Team May is felled not by her own backbenchers but by the DUP -ending the confidence and supply arrangement could cause a General Election which I do think would see Labour as the largest party and the end of even BINO brexit.

Could Chequers really be dead?

I was pretty sure to start with that the 'Salzburg Surprise' was a manufactured confection to get the UK and EU populace to see that the concessions about to be agreed by both sides beyond respective red lines, were in fact pragmatic choices in the face of no deal disaster.


Yet, I wonder, perhaps that position was overly cynical and I have fallen at my own low hurdle.


Rule of Capitalists@Work NO.1 (Since 2006) - It is never conspiracy, instead everytime and always rank incompetence/idiocy is the cause - unless 100% proven to be conspiracy, which, by definition is excruciatingly rare (here's looking at you, Alistair Campbell) as it implies competence which in and of itself is highly unlikely in any given situation.


Exhibit 1 here is Prime Minster Theresa May, who has long form for incompetence and no record at all of competence. Aided and abetted by the senior civil service, who, from afar, certainly appear to have all the competence of a vat of sulphuric acid being appointed as guardian to a litter of puppies.


Which means, possibly, the meeting at Downing Street today with the cabinet is actually a real one, where they really are thinking 'WTF.'


As readers here know (see the excellent comments on the last post), there is no way to square the circle of the kind of soft brexit the remainers want with the square of the EU acquisition of Northern Ireland.


I think there is only one way of discovering if this is the case though, because if May has failed as badly as this then surely she will be resigning this week. Talk of an election is for the birds, a definite loss to Labour is not what the Tories will seek. A little bloodletting and someone more at ease with a Canada style deal is surely the only way.


However, incompetence is strong in the government, they may just cling on to May because they are too frit to act decisively. Of course there is the long-shot that this is indeed all negotiated posturing and Chequers will be the outcome.

May, Trump, Merkel

What a weird week this is!


Let's face, since the Brexit referendum thing shave been a bit weird, going back in my lifetime, things have never really calmed down since the financial crisis. The Financial Crisis seems to have pushed much of humanity into a permanent state of anxiety from which there are no signs of recovery.


This week, we have our new weakened emboldened Prime Minister meeting with her German boss, Frau Merkel, who is over in the UK to remind herself that for all her domestic troubles in Germany it could be a lot worse.


May, in her anxious state, even stopped journalists for asking Merkel about 'the deal' which May thinks she has signed off and everyone else know we don't.


After Merkel leaves we have a visit from The Donald, also here to laugh at the UK and generally troll NATO, EU and China for his kicks. Even by Trump standards, he is off the deep end currently, berating allies, starting a trade war with China and pushing that so far that it will actually dent the US economy and then going off for a love-in with Vladimir in Russia (and so ignoring all the legal investigations in the US). Wow, just wow.


There may even be an interesting sports match-up in the middle of all this over the next week.


It is certainly interesting to watch, none of it does much for my own anxiety though!

Timing is everything.

 

Fifty years ago President Lyndon Johnson,was surprised coming up to his renomination for the Presidency,by an unexpected challenge over his handling of the Vietnam War, by Senator Eugene McCarthy 
Standing against him for the leadership of Democrats on a Peace Platform.

The Peace movement was still quite small in the US. Most Americans still supported the war. Most wanted it finished, but not at the expense of surrender. A peace candidate wasn't expected to do very well at all. 

Then the Tet Offensive happened. A major offensive right across South Vietnam. Focused on the urban strongholds rather than the rural hamlets. It came just weeks after a huge PR campaign by the Johnson Administration,that had told Americans the war was being won.

The pictures on the nightly news told a different story. Bodies in the streets of Saigon. Americans under siege the length and breadth of Vietnam. Walter Conkrite, the voice of evening news America, gave his first ever personal opinion. "America cannot win."

In the aftermath McCarthy came a very credible second place to the sitting president in the New Hampshire primary.
A few days later, Robert Kennedy said he would run on a peace ticket too, so Johnson was suddenly in big, big trouble.

He made a television appearance in which he uttered a famous phrase. But just before that part Lyndon explained his view that because the Vietnam War was so important. Was so time consuming and required such focus, it was going to take every second of the President's time.

"I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office: the presidency of your country."

Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President."

 The War had claimed it's highest profile victim.

It is worth noting that in a sort of Brexit like frustration, a lot of the Democrats who voted for McCarthy had voted because they thought Johnson wasn't pursuing the war hard enough. 
They thought Johnson too weak on war. So they voted for a peacenik ?
Yes..exactly that. Anyone but LBJ! His support was becoming narrower as he was seen as simultaneously too much pro-war and too much anti-war.

The success of McCarthy in a sort of stalking horse role is what convinced Johnson's biggest rival and sworn enemy, Robert Kennedy, to finally run against him. And made Johnson quit.

Fifty years on, another serving leader, is faced with an impossible challenge. Having to reconcile Hawk and Dove elements within their party and the nation. A challenge that sucks the time and focus out of all other agenda. That diminishes all other politics and leaves the all important domestic legislation drifting aimlessly. 

 Brexit is Vietnam for May. And she doesn't even have Lyndon Johnson's relatively successful domestic bills to fall back on.

The time for the leader to leave will only become more of an issue with every passing day. The time for a successor is once Brexit is done. Not immediately. But within a year of our leaving the EU.
So the new leader can have distance from the past. And a focus for the future.

There will be a feeling by Mayites that she's done.."Alright."
But, in truth, she has not. 

The deal isn't the deal. Its just "Alright."
The country isn't doing well or badly. It's doing "Alright."
The local elections? Who knows? But by polling it looks like Jez will do well as this cycle favours him anyway. And Theresa might snatch a few rurals in exchange for the metropolis. Which might be 'Alright.'
And so on.

I'm afraid, Prime Minister, 5/10 isn't going to be enough. Even 6/10 with a rabble of an opposition like Momentum, shouldn't be considered a success.

So perhaps now is the time to look at 2020. To put aside all fantasies of managing to muddle through to the next election and leading the party to triumph. You had your chance.

Reflect a little now on how best to make the transition. And although very few believed Johnson's explanation for why he wasn't running again, it was a very good excuse.
And a very good speech. 

 

"...With Britain's future facing a challenge right here at home from the failed policies of Hard Left socialism. With our hopes, and Europe's hopes, for a successful, new European partnership, hanging in the balance every day...
... I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes. Or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office: the leadership of your country."

..I shall not seek ..and will not accept...

"Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your Prime Minister."

Coin flip Brexit to come?

So if May does not survive the week, of which there is an outside change I feel given her recent public appearances, then I think we come to a coin flip.


1) Hammond gets the gig as PM and takes us down the softest non-Brexit, Brexit imaginable. This is not such a terrible strategy, all those UKIP voters soon went back to Labour anyway when there was a General Election. Perhaps this may do the trick, winning lots of remainers onto your 35% base would be a good effort.


2) Gove gets the job and we go Hard Brexit with the DUP. This is, um, a higher risk strategy as it involves continuing the civil war in the Establishment and finding out how much of the remoaning is bluster and how much is true. As such, he will shine as a national hero forever or be condemned to the depths of a Gordon Brown.


What is clearer by the day, is that the middle road of May is harder to achieve, not just in Brussels, but in the Cabinet too.

Mayday in Japan

I hold no candle for Mrs May, nearly losing an election to actual commies in a right wing country is unforgivable.

But today the news leads with her saying she will stay on and fight another election. This is classic non-story news. Asked a question she gave an answer to put it to bed, after all she is in Japan, trying to get some sort of trade deal going and also offer re-assurance from the Korean menace.

But our intrepid political reporters never give up,why leave the cosy Westminster bubble stories alone when you can create them on demand like this?

What was the PM supposed to say, anything that indicates hesitation and the media line will be she is wobbling and the next call is to Boris. It is a silly and juvenile game indeed.

Re Japan, nice to see Nissan massively expanding its Sunderland production and aiming to increase the use of U.K. Parts. Good deal struck by the Government there, how strange this does not get a mention in the FT - a quality paper also reduced to juvenile behaviour by its editor.

Can Corbyn Win?

I have always loved UK politics, I remember being very into the 1987 General Election, I was 12! I guess that makes me a nerd. I was even a very active activist for a while in the late 1990's and early 2000's.


As such, I reckon I know quite a bit about the subject. So I can't really believe what I am about to write, but here goes.


Theresa May's manifesto launch was awful, really awful. The BBC focused on protestors, the policies were anti-old people, anti-libertarian, tax rises and doom and gloom. And even with that it still did not reduce the deficit properly.


Corbyn launched Labour's fantasy manifesto to a group of highly-motivated toddlers who clapped and cheered. People talked about how some of these policies were a good idea; in the same way that the sun rising and blue skies are nice, but still. They did.


The Lib Dems, having chosen the worst strategy ever, being pro-remain, economically lefty and socially liberal  in the UK in 2017 is, well, politically toxic. They also have some sort of stop-motion model as their leader. They will lose seats in the election and they only had 8 to start with.


UKIP, well, UKIP. I pity the receptacle of my vote for the past 10 years. They too have a total plonker as loser, having rejected some better ones along the way. They have no coherent policy base to speak of and have to hope they will keep some vote share. Their vote share though will be around 1/3rd of what it was just 2 years ago. Their victory in Brexit was awesome, their usefulness to UK domestic politics is at an end.


So now the polls are showing UKIP and Lib Dems as near wipeouts. The loony Greens can happily vote Labour as they have the same mad policy platform.


But Labour have the momentum, they started from a low base so just adding on the suicidal Lib Dems vote, shows them to be firming up. The Tories, having started so high, could literally only go backwards - and they are, albeit very slightly.


May gambled that an honest manifesto which was realistic could work. Perhaps she was wrong. Many people are silly these days;


 'I'll vote for Corbyn, then I won't have to pay Uni for my kids, someone else will"


Of course someone does, but that someone is not you, it is those evil businesses and city types and those baby-eating Tories. I watched a bit of the ITV debate last night, it is sad how partisan the Country now is, the Tories made out to be actually evil and 'murdering the disabled.'

So Corbyn has the momentum, plus he can campaign, it is thing. The press are bored of reporting the Diane Abbot levels of incompetence, so look for them in the Tories too, when the comparison is fatuous. The Tory front bench has little real talent. The Labour front bench is actually full of morons, Angela Rayner struggles to even string a sentence together; it is woeful.


So there are only 2 scenario's; Labour advanced, the Tories wobble and the election gets much closer. After all, if May gets less than 50 majority she will in reality look a fool for holding the election.


Or perhaps people get over this mid-election wobble and flood back to the Tories at the end.


The way I see Corbyn winning is not in 2017 however, but in 2022. Brexit will be hard, the EU will make it tough, a recession is nailed on for sometime in the next 5 years. A Labour party within a few points of the Tories in 2017, will win in 2022 - imagine if that is a party still led by the hard left SJW faction! It will be time to emigrate, sharpish.

Time to focus real key downsides in a 'Hard' Brexit?

There are, according to the slightly strange Peter North, over 300 agreements covered by EU Law that the UK will need to deal with post-Brexit.


With the mood music from Brussels turning from chilly to freezing over the past few days, we have to understand that there is no 'Soft' Brexit option. Indeed, the only questions should be from the reverse perspective. What are the key issues that will really de-stablisise the UK post-Brexit that we need to focus on, rather than the enormous list of important but not urgent stuff.


For me 5 stand out above all others -


1. People - We need to give people in the UK stability, at the end of the day, we need to allow all EU citizens in the UK by the time indefinite leave to remain in the UK. Ideally, we would have reciprocal arrangements with the EU, but if not then so be it - the damage here is one sided and people who left the UK in the first place should not be a deal-breaker.


2. Airspace - This is complex and we will likely leave the agreed EU area, companies need to prepare for this (probably easier from them to move their HQ, a la the Banks) so that air traffic is not grounded. The are work-arounds to the problems and it does not suit the EU to have the Western Air Corridor in a mess, but this is a key day to day process that needs arranging.


3. Euratom - The EU energy agency and policy is something to be avoided at all costs, however in the immediate term we do need a cover of some sort of transitional arrangement to keep options open and the nuclear industry as is working. I personally don't see being a rule taker from the EU on this as being so bad for 5 years or more from now. By the mid-2020's Fracking, Solar, Wind and ultra-cheap US LNG imports will mean it is likely Europe asking us for power rather than the other way around. There is so much cheap LNG coming on stream that there is no long-term problem. The real problem lies with our own energy policy however, which is a deranged as the EU one!


4. Irish Border - This does need a solution that does its best to avoid a hard border. Even the EU want to agree this so hopefully this is one area where sense can prevail. A real hard EU approach will be to demand Ireland becomes one country and stoke new civil war, it feels unlikely but remains a possibility if we can't agree.


5. Trade - WTO trade is not so bad for the UK and we can adapt, however various commissions like the Chemical regulations could provide a shock to the economy and so some of the manufacturing businesses supply lines will be threatened.




There are many more issues around legal standing, drugs regulation etc which while seemingly critical, I don't think matter day one of a hard brexit and we will, as ever, muddle through.


Time to focus on the few key matters, at least we will have the £60 billion to spend on various things having not paid the exit fee!

Remainer Lords try to create new constitutional crisis...sigh

I feel sorry for Theresa May. Stuck with a job at the worst time to get it in fifty years, she nonetheless has to just plow on.


Brexit this, Brexit that, NHS crisis here there and everywhere. Better her than me.


On top of all of this is the fifth column of remainers in every area of the liberal elite determined to wreck any attempt to get a good Brexit.


Today it is the turn of the Lords with the most mind-numbingly stupid proposal yet. Basically, they are saying let all EU people stay as that is a nice thing to do. Give away any bargaining chip we have with countries we know are going to take a hard line like Poland.


Doing this will ensure we have a crap Brexit negotiation. So back the Commons the amendment will go and it will be voted down. The Lords know this is a stupid and puerile game- but it is a cosy piece of virtue-signalling by the remainers.


If they stick at it, then there will have to be a Royal Commission into the role of the unelected Lords. Which is necessary but could be left to the next decade after we have sorted out Brexit and re-conquered Scotland in the next civil war. Sometime in the mid-2020's. Of course, this is their game as such a distraction is exactly what they want as they try to stop Brexit altogether.

Government loses Brexit appeal...oh happy days

Hey nonny-nonny....


This will be a fun day now because:


- Remoaners will think there is some sort of victory


- Lot of Lefty hand-wringing about the sovereignty of parliament


- Threats from the Lords about not playing ball as Article 50 is not in the Tory manifesto and so lots dark threats about not passing a Government bill.


- The Lib Dems will declare a need for a new referendum and an end of hunger globally.




All the while, the bullet is already shot. The EU already hate us and want us out; there will be no going back to them as the terms have been changed already.


Furthermore, May is in a great position, if Brexit is blocked by the Lords or Parliament then a snap election it is, with a 100-Seat majority as Hard Brexit as clause one of the manifesto.


Still, as they say of remoaners, its the hope that kills.....

EU show their teeth

Been very busy here at Capitalists Towers, what with the need to earn salaries and income etc.


So apologies for the lighter posting this week.


The EU seem to be really goading themselves for a fight though. Anything said by Mar or Johnson at the moment is being taken as a horrific insult worthy of instant response and denigration.


There are a couple of obvious themes:


- Left-Wing Euroers are much worse and are very akin to remainers.
- The Brussels crowd are this doubleplus
- There is the strange outlier here of Donald Tusk who seems to be acting like a grown-up.
- Key player Merkel is remaining very quiet, lots of the national political whining is by politicians trying to shore up their positions ahead of elections this year they are likely to lose.


These 'negotiations' are unlikely to last very long in this environment.