Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Happy New Year - Predictions needed

Image result for flying car
No one has ever predicted this have they?




The Wisdom of the crowds is strong in the last 12 years of this game between the blog editors and the commentators we have predicted an awful lot right, including the unthinkable such as the Global Financial Crash and France winning the World Cup.

2019 is going to be a corker though, what with the world properly hooked on psychodrama currently. So for our LUCKY 13th annual competition we are going with 5 questions for you to prognosticate upon:

1. Brexit - What happens now? Hard, May's Deal or Remain?

2. Government - Does May Survive in power? Does Corbyn?

3. Energy - Oil price - Up or down from the $55 it is today?

4. Markets - FTSE - Winning or Losing year, bonus point for getting within 200 points of the finish on 31st December 2019.

5. Bonus Round - Your THREE other predictions for 2019, Trump impeached, an immigration disaster in Europe, Italy to leave the Euro, Putin to start a new distraction war, a massive cyber attack, M&S to close...who knows, you decide.

A year of crowing to the winners, shredded betting strips for the losers. Good luck all.

13 comments:

Jan said...

What? No-one up yet?

Here goes
1. Brexit...May's deal wins. We're all fed up now and just want it over with. Her strategy of playing for time wins out.

2. May survives and hangs on after Brexit but reluctantly passes the baton to Jeremy Hunt who becomes PM until the end of the fixed term. A young upstart will challenge Corbyn for the Labour leadership. (don't know who... Chuka??)

3. Oil up then down to 20 dollars by year end.

4. FTSE flatish but rises to around 7000 by year end.

5. Dow volatile with several ups and downs and falls to finish the year around 15000.

6. House prices continue to sink in London and SE (unless BOE or government interfere again. Pease no more "help" for first-time buyers as nothing will help more than a fall in prices.)

7. Macron could be toppled in France........no idea what would happen next.

PS What else did we get right in previous years?

Anonymous said...

Happy new year all!

Brexit - well, we're either going to have a Hard Brexit from sheer incompetence, or the prospect of that happening will terrify enough in power to go with Remain. I'm going to say we'll Remain, sadly.

Government - May survive? No. Only thing that'll do for Corbyn is if May develops a spine, calls Corbyn's bluff and give him a mandate to negotiate his magical deal with the EU out of a spirit if national unity. It's not like he can say no without looking like a busted flush, and the result will be a full blown Labour civil war and Corbyn being ridiculed by the EU. Realistically though, May gone, Corbyn still leader of the Opposition.

Oil price - up. I expect more chaos in the ME.

Markets - down. A Hard Brexit will likely trigger an initial sell-off, whilst Remain will see a rally. Too many storm clouds on the horizon though, something other than Brexit is going to blow.


Prediction 1 - Debenhams to do a CVA, Fat Mike to make a move in response.

One that may tickle BQ here - one store I know I had several hundred unclaimed click and collect parcels. Only it didn't. The Christmas temps hadn't been checking them out properly, and management didn't really care. The problem with that is after x number of days, the money is returned to the customer if the parcel is deemed unclaimed. So that one store has been handing out 100% discounts. I find it hard to believe that store is so unique that it hasn't happened elsewhere. So you can add stupidity to one of Debenhams' issues.

But after he's made HoF the "Harrods of the High Street", I'm sure Fat Mike will have a crack at making Debenhams the House of Fraser of the shopping centre.


Prediction 2 - Trump to pick between power and family.

The corrupt little shit won't be impeached, but between his wall failing to get built and Mueller unearthing all sorts of Del-Boy-Meets-Berlusconi shenenigans, many of which will place his family members at risk of serious jail time, he'll find it convenient to spend even more time golfing and tweeting in exchange for those cases being dealt with at Federal level, rather than State level, so they can be pardoned.


Prediction 3 - Precursor to the break up of Google.

The EU has it in for them, the US is starting to make similar noises to what they did with MS a few decades back. Difference being MS wised-up quickly and played ball to keep in once piece. Google is too arrogant and think how they subsumed the Obama admin will keep on working, only it isn't.

We'll see moves to break it into "Baby Googles".

Stick my predictions under 'Semi-anonymous Fury'!

Anonymous said...

Indian medical student kicked out of college by racist white professors for questioning their SJW beliefs

Kieran Ravi Bhattacharya was a medical student at the University of Virginia and he has been kicked out after having questioned his white college professor's SJW beliefs.

Here is the audio of the lecture where he questioned his professor's SJW beliefs:

https://m.soundcloud.com/user-381804527/microagressions-presented-by-amwa

He speaks from 28:45 to 34:00

Here is the audio of the suspension hearing:

https://m.soundcloud.com/user-381804527/asac

Here is a picture of the people who were at the suspension hearing:

https://imgur.com/a/RUvKXNH

Notice how 14 out of the 16 people at that suspension hearing are white people. If this is not an act of racism against a sincere indian medical student, then I don't know what is. Look at their smug arrogant faces as they kick him out for DARING to question their SJW beliefs.

His twitter is https://twitter.com/kieranravib if you want to ask him questions or set up an interview with him

Already the media is beginning to cover it: https://beforeitsnews.com/v3/opinion-conservative/2018/3421928.html

https://cloverchronicle.com/2018/12/29/university-of-virginia-med-student-receives-1-year-suspension-after-microaggressions-lecture/

It has been discussed endlessly on Reddit, 4chan, and various message boards. This is THE next big story. So if you run this story on your blog, it will serve to draw a lot of traffic to your blog as well. The story will expose the truth about how our univerisites are SJW and communist indoctrination centers.

andrew said...

1. Brexit - What happens now? Hard, May's Deal or Remain?

tl;dr - Nothing happens - we will still be arguing.

Full:
17.4m voted out, 16.1m voted in, 12.9m didnt vote.
If we want to do business (44% of our exports) with the EU we will need to be compliant with their (our) rules and remain in compliance.
The level of market access we get depends on how close we are to the EU.
WTO terms do not cover services. 54% of our exports to the EU are services.
Take back control... yah.

If we leave on WTO terms we (never mind 'project fear') do lose a lot of jobs over time.
Not many want that

If we leave on May's terms we become a set of rule takers where the EU can basically loot our best industries.
Not many want that outside Mrs May and pretty much no one else

If we stay 17.4m people will be upset.

... a long way round of saying there is no alternative that over half the electorate or half the MPs actually want.
Once all alternatives have been rejected, we will request an extension to A50, it will be granted, there will be a referendum.

The question will still be in the process of defined on jan 1 2020

2. Government - Does May Survive in power? Does Corbyn?

May survives. So does Corbyn.

Vince cable wanted to be in this question, but no-one cared enough

3. Energy - Oil price - Up or down from the $55 it is today?

About the same - 55-60. Much volatility.

4. Markets - FTSE - Winning or Losing year, bonus point for getting within 200 points of the finish on 31st December 2019.

FTSE - 6600 (a comment on USD weakness)
FTAS - 4000 (businesses just getting on with life)

5. Bonus Round - Your THREE other predictions for 2019, Trump impeached, an immigration disaster in Europe, Italy to leave the Euro, Putin to start a new distraction war, a massive cyber attack, M&S to close...who knows, you decide.

(a) Trump #1 - Indictment
Trump will not be indicted. Very close associates - possibly family will.
They will be charged with federal crimes - not state.
This means trump can pardon them.

(b) Trump #2 - morality
The deep state / the body politic / we the people will start to tire of pols who just make stuff up.
This is the basis of some of Muellers indictments- they lied on oath or lied to the FBI.
I hope for greater sympathy for those who cock up and less for those who cover-up or lie.
(perhaps too optimistic)

(c) Events....
Something happens (natural disaster) somewhere that forces the the world to take climate change more seriously.
Measurably, china and the us stop subsidising coal.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon's give us some names for yourselves.

polidorisghost said...

Great car.
I'm parked in Waitrose carpark - How do I open the blessed door?

Scan said...

Some heroic fence-sitting:

1. Brexit - What happens now? Hard, May's Deal or Remain?
Optimistically, everyone's so busy arguing and unwilling to give way that we accidentally leave without a deal. Pessimistically, the can is kicked by extending Article 50 or enough MPs chicken out and accept May's deal.

2. Government - Does May Survive in power? Does Corbyn?
Hard Brexit: May survives temporarily until Javid (or Hunt if Javid makes a pigs ear of the current boating problems) begins an easy sail towards the next scheduled election. Corbyn replaced with a repackaged Tom Watson and Neo Labour II. Soft/no Brexit: May dispatched, Boris allowed to win contest (as Tory MPS know he'd be a dead duck if a GE called). Corbyn to remain but already scuppered on policy in event of GE win as he won't be able to make his Communist dreams reality because we'd still be in the EU.

3. Energy - Oil price - Up or down from the $55 it is today?
Spike due to tensions in Middle East/Caucuses with US withdrawals and Putin counter power-plays. Drops back with US upping production and exporting more to allies.

4. Markets - FTSE - Winning or Losing year, bonus point for getting within 200 points of the finish on 31st December 2019.
Hard Brexit: Immediate fall then slow recovery (7000). No/botched Brexit: Initial surge then slow fall-off (6500).

5. Bonus Round - Your THREE other predictions for 2019, Trump impeached, an immigration disaster in Europe, Italy to leave the Euro, Putin to start a new distraction war...

a) Trump not impeached. (If he is, Melania shoe-horned in and walks next election, leading to semi-public HRC mental breakdown).
b) No change in Italy. No-one brave enough has the support.
c) Putin takes advantage of US exit and starts real game of Risk. Trump manages to get China and North Korea onside to scare the sh*te out of Putin enough to keep him in his box.
d) Macron semi-toppled but refuses to go. It all kicks off with the NR stoking for all they're worth.
e) Hungary to pull MEPs from EU Parliament in protest at...well...anything at this point.
f) The politicians get it together and agree a great deal and the UK leaves the EU to everyone's satisfaction. Hahahahaha.

Nick Drew said...

2019: oo-err, what a year this might be

1. Brexit - as suggested previously, NoDeal isn't countenanced by TPTB and they [Whitehall] will act extra-parliamentary if they have to. That still leaves a range of possibilities, but the can may only bounce further down into 2019

2. Government - I can't see May lasting the full year, because some major break-point will happen during '19 that will include her unseating. Corbyn will carry on if his health does because the only other possible leader for the marxist tendency is McDonnell and he's quite scary for a lot of people, in and out of the Peoples Party

3. Energy - Oil price - there are quite a lot of bearish signs globally so I'll go for $45

4. Markets - FTSE - not my special subject. NoNoDeal speaks to an uptick, global bearish speaks to global gloom and a down year. Probably both, in succession, I'll say overall down

5.a Russia does something really extreme, Crimea-scale, somewhere, on the basis that literally no-one is paying attention: Putin proving to his own people that there are dividends from his relentless assymetric warfare-waging (I predicted the 2008 Georgia invasion so I'm banking on a re-run for bonus points again)

5.b China, not to be left behind, also tries something: prob not Taiwan just yet, but one of those island things, sinking some small naval vessel belonging to Vietnam - unlikely to bring about a nuclear response, even from Mr T

5.c oh all right then: New Centre Party launched, bankrolled lavishly by Soros

Anonymous said...

Just the bonus point.

The year is 2030. Article 50 is extended again as there is no agreement in Parliament. The other EU countries by now are so fed up with our antics, that they have collectively left the EU and set up the "New EU" with its HQ in the spiritual home of Berlin.

UK left with the cost of the ex-EU offices in Brussels and Strasbourg. Daily Mail calls it an affront that the other EU countries have left. Sun claims to have "won the EU war"

CityUnslicker said...

My own entry:
1 - Remain, dash it.
2 - yes she does, dash it.
3 - Down, $45 by Xmas
4 - FTSE 5900 - nasty recession this year, brexit of no brexit.
5 Bonus'

- Trump Impeached in Congress
- MBS loses Saudi throne
- Gold price rockets as Crypto currencies collapse

GridBot said...

1. Brexit - What happens now? Hard, May's Deal or Remain?

Hard Brexit by default as the MPs sleep walk into it. Major Chaos then leading to a back track - grab whatever life line thrown to us by the EU leading to rejoining/remain but on worse terms.

2. Government - Does May Survive in power? Does Corbyn?

After the above a GE is called (don't know what the mechanismm would be, bi partisan confidence vote following the above fuck up?) - May is replaced as Tory leader by Johnny Mercer (why not) and corbyn is deposed as people start asking the Opposition - how did you let the government do this unchallenged? He's replaced with an equally insane but younger and more energetic candidate. the GE is a close run thing - hung parliament. followed by gridlock on everything.

3. Energy - Oil price - Up or down from the $55 it is today?

Turbulent but closes the year at $90 - driven by (in the following order) 1)Chinese policy shift away from coal to nat-gas/syn-gas/Oil 2)global population growth 3)inability for USA to export enough 4) the continuation of the 100 year middle east saga.

4. Markets - FTSE - Winning or Losing year, bonus point for getting within 200 points of the finish on 31st December 2019.

gradual decline toward 5000 hit at around late April as peak fuck up bites and all the good will is wiped off the value of the indexed companies - leaving there underlying assets. gradual increase from there closing at 5850 end of 2019.

5. Bonus Round - Your THREE other predictions for 2019, Trump impeached, an immigration disaster in Europe, Italy to leave the Euro, Putin to start a new distraction war, a massive cyber attack, M&S to close...who knows, you decide.

1. the European immigration disaster continues in full swing - native populations become in the west (UK, France, Germany) become more polarized as to how to deal with them. accept or reject. Countries such as such as Italy, Hungary, pockets of Greece, see increased level of civil disobedience and violence this eventually spreads to the north west.

2. Price of diesel - gradually increases via a stealth green tax which is hidden some how. ends up finishing the year with a 20p difference between petrol and diesel.

3. Jaguar Land Rover - continues to be in the shit - but it won't have anything to do with brexit - weak demand in china and being slow to the electric car market/with out sufficient manufacturing capability/battery acquisition. a further 5000 jobs are laid off.

4. House prices - stall in "growth" and don't increase in real terms for the year. House builders don't have a good year.

5. Summer - another hot and dry one - lots of pressure on water companies especially in the south east to not be leaky!

6. Shell (RDSA) to do well this year as they position themselves as an "Energy Company" rather than an Oil & Gas company - continue there diversification and enter the electric vehicle market in a big way. finishes the year at £30/RDSB share.

Happy NY to all!

DJK said...

1. May’s deal is voted down but the govt. and EU ignore the result and implement it anyway.

2. May and Corbyn both cling, limpet-like, to power.

3. Oil up a bit to $60.

4. Big FTSE 100 rally after Brexit day comes and goes and millennium bug-like, nothing happens. Ends the year at 7600.

5. (i) Mark Zukerberg steps down from Facebook, after another torrid year.
(ii) US stops supporting Yemeni war, KSA stops bombing.
(iii) Tony Blair’s personal accounts hacked, revealing multiple payments from some very unpleasant sources.

Anonymous said...

"(iii) Tony Blair’s personal accounts hacked, revealing multiple payments from some very unpleasant sources."

Brilliant......let's hope so!