Monday 18 March 2019

Meaningful Vote 3 - Vote Harder

Even as a political obsessive, I am pretty bored of Brexit. If the news comes on the gogglebox I quickly switch over as it is all too much to bear, the grinning, cretinous goons from Parliament making the same leave or remain case a full 3 years on from when the whole thing was decided by the people they are supposed to serve.

Ah, well. At least an end game of sorts is in sights? So for this week, this is my take on how things will go - hard to bet on how this will affect the market or betting companies though, so not much in it other than pride.

1) MV3 will happen, May has run out of road. I think she will even promise to quit on the back of it (what value a promise to a serial liar anyway?).

2) This won't be enough, it really does not need very many rebels on the Tory side and I think there will be more than 20, so plenty to make sure it just fails. 280 vs 340 or that kind of thing. Close but no Cigar.

3) For a brief minute, the rebel Leavers will think they have won the day, there will be small run on the pound and supermarkets will be happy to sell the gullible food supplies for the coming famine and pestilence.

4) Then parliament will see May get an extension for a few months from the EU, enough for MV4 and to prove once and for all that a) she is a big liar b) it really is her Brexit or no Brexit.

5) Now we will have another 3 months on interminably dull politics, rehearsing yet again the vote from 2016, whilst the rebels in the Tories and DUP decide whether it is May's Brexit or no Brexit.

So in many, frankly depressing ways, nothing will have changed, again. It will be nice to see who thinks differently in the comments. A pint for the winner in a pub near Parliament to be had...


Gladstone's bag said...

This is navel gazing to the extreme. The EU have all the cards. It will be total capitulation or out. The only argument is which bits of the UK carcasse that each of the EU 27 want.

She could have played a worst hand if she tried.

And before anyone mentions "treason" - the first to be tried should be the chairmen of the Conservatives local parties as they anointed her.

AndrewZ said...

Over the past few days there's been a rash of articles in favour of the WA from people who were previously committed to "No Deal". Even Guido has suddenly started to support it. It's clearly a co-ordinated effort by individuals and organisations with close links to the Conservative Party. Presumably they have made some electoral calculations and concluded that this is what they need to do to protect the interests of the party. This suggests that the WA will actually pass at MV3.

John Bercow has just announced that he is unlikely to allow a third vote on the deal unless it comes back in a substantially different form. Since he is doing everything possible to help the Remain side the timing of this announcement suggests that they also think May could now win MV3, and this is a desperate ploy to stop it.

CityUnslicker said...

Andrew Z - Agree with that analysis.

Gladstone- um, this is exactly what she tried to do, a very weak Brexit with a red line only over immigration.

Sackerson said...

Just a bulls-eye to suck on:

The phrase "constitutional crisis" was used by several MPs in the points of order after the Speaker's statement this afternoon. 11 days to go. No clear plan. Panic is growing.

Order in Council... Emergency Powers Act 1920... Civil Contingencies Act 2004

Anonymous said...


david morris said...

Sackers : Constitutional crisis ? These people have NO idea. The social construct has been torn up, trampled on & discarded by those who refuse to accept the 2016 result. Just how easy do they think it's going to be to govern the country in future ?

E-K said...

Then The People's Vote so that it's all their idea.

I read that it was the rich London Oxbridge types that stitched all this up. An inside job. Many blinders played.

I do not blame EU representatives one jot. They've completed their duties well.

Just one thing.

If "Leave the European Union" was never a genuine offer then why was it presented as a choice in the first place ?

Timbo614 said...

I was reading the other day that when dealing with politics "think people".
It could go: May consults Geoffery Cox to cook up something that he could accept and it is presented as a "revised deal". May knows the EU will reject it.
This is accepted by the grinning dwarf as vote-able on. It passes. The EU reject it. May resigns with "I did my best".
All hell breaks loose and Boris with his recently fairly clean nose and new hair cut steps up and is accepted as "temporary PM" because there does not seem to be a deputy PM currently.
More hell breaks loose.
Boris tries for an extension. The EU are aware Boris (or actually anyone but May) is a threat and refuse any more time...
Brexit is accomplished without any deal.
After the kerfuffle is over some real talks begin.
Pound drops, FTSE drops.

Hmm, The things I'll do for a free pint!

E-K said...

If I may.

BlokeInBrum said...

I'll concur with AndrewZ analysis.
There has been a change in the political winds and I reckon that the Maybot will have been able to pick off enough MPs to get the WA through.

Everything up to this point has been nothing more than stage management.
All the events up to now have been the Establishment floundering around trying to find a way to prevent the Uk from leaving whilst trying not to make it too obvious to the plebs that our votes don't count.

I was curious about why Bercow came up with this ploy about blocking MV3. Surely Mays WA is BriNo so what have they got to lose? Unless there is still a faction hopeing to trigger another neverendum?

And as usual, for the rest of us, its what price we will have to pay.

Lord Blagger said...

So meaningful vote 3 is ruled out by Bercow.

What's even more funny about this, is that another vote on a referendum, well, they have already had that, so remain can't have that.

We've have a vote on A50, so they can't have another vote on that too.

Unless Bercow is going to flip, then flop, then flip.

Anonymous said...

There is the legal convention that you can't keep bringing the same cause of action to court again and again. Anyone that does is a vexatious litigant. Judges will strike out claims they know have been to court before - unless there is new evidence.

So if Erskine May borrows from the same convention - then why did Cox not warn May about this. Or did he and she is still not listening.

My money is on her deafness.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - Bercow makes it up as he goes along, as is his right. It is why we normally have had low ego, sane ladies and gentlemen as Speakers. The Tories knew one day it would come that Bercow could have his revenge on them and so it has come to pass.

Nick Drew said...

I knew Berc was up to something! (see Wednesday post)

Jan said...

Well predicted Nick

Are we allowed to have another vote of no confidence? If not then it's time for the pitchforks and yellow vests.

Starkey is right...........they're not listening.

andrew said...

I think bercow did the right thing.

May has been abusing the unwritten constitution for too long and I have no sympathy for her.

Perhaps she should have left a horses head in the beds of the 75 MPs she needed to get on side.
At least that would have indicated some imagination.

Guido et al may well moan on about precedent - or lack of, but rather like gormenghast, I bet there is a precedent for just about anything if you look hard enough.

I bet on Disorderly exit

She might have been right in that that deal was the only deal given her self imposed constraints.
But the process she used pretty much guaranteed she would not get wide support and those red lines were her red lines, not parliament's.
At a base moral level - and every other level, she was wrong.

Anonymous said...

Yes, he's come a long way since the days when he and Edward Leigh were the right-wing enfants terribles of the Tory Party.

But while I despise him, I cam't find it in me to hate him. He's not a traitor to his people.

Anonymous said...

Bercow never does anything to help the Leave side. He spends a lot of time privately with the likes of Grieve and Clarke -- both lawyers. No doubt his blocking of MV3 is a ploy to give the Remainers more time to come up with a way to neuter Article 50, and to extend the negotiations indefinitely until something turns up to prevent Brexit altogether.

The only good prospect is the fact that leaving on 29th March, deal or no deal, is still on the statute book. And there is also a slight chance that one of the EU 27 (Hungary or Italy?) will veto an extension.

Otherwise, the United Kingdom is heading into some form of civil war.