Tuesday 12 March 2019

Nohing has changed

And indeed, nothing will change today. Parliament will vote down everything and we will still be back at square one tomorrow, when Parliament will begin the revocation process in earnest.

Open Thread.


Lord Blagger said...

Revocation of what?

Roderick said...

Seconded. Surely we revert to the default of a no deal exit.

Lockers said...

Blagger and Roderick:

A long game is being played - mainly because some players (i.e. most of the - other than the electorate!) want to get make Brexit go away and keep us trapped in the EU.

We may be surprised by actually leaving with No Deal on 29th March, after tonight's (and subsequent night's) vote - but odds on are to initially extend Art 50, have referendum engineered to get a remain vote plurality, and revoke article 50 and stay in. Issues with EU elections looking notwithstanding.

Sobers said...

My feeling is this: 1) WA gets voted down today. 2) No deal gets voted down tomorrow (but indicative only). 3) EU say thats your lot we've been messed about long enough and refuse any further negotiations (and rightly so, irregardless of one's Remain/Leave views the UK government has been an utter shambles on this) 4) No one can get enough votes for a legal alteration to the default leave date through the HoC as when push comes to shove they will hesitate to defy the referendum result so brazenly. 5) We leave on 29th under WTO terms.

Anonymous said...

"when push comes to shove they will hesitate to defy the referendum result so brazenly"

I'm not so sure about that. They've been defying it brazenly enough so far. For these (MPs, BBC, etc etc) people, there's more money in staying in.

Don Cox

Lockers said...

Sorry about my typos above - busy busy at work and trying to hammer my point into the ol' laptop!

to be frank, every step of this has surprised me, but the long-term play has not. I still can't make my mind if this is all cock-up or conspiracy but I have a sense it is a mix of the both.

andrew said...

I have the feeling that May is an embodiment of an infinite improbability drive.

The chances of getting anywhere in particular is close to 0, so we go nowhere - and stay nowhere.

i.e. there will be a masterclass in can kicking.

CityUnslicker said...

Oh, I think revocation of Article 50. It is within Parliament's gift and there are plenty of votes for it. Tiggers, Labour, 50-Odd Tories.

May will say it is revoke or no deal brexit...bit of shenanigans building up to this point but I feel that is the plan.

Of course, best laid plans etc.

E-K said...

Called that wrong then.

MyBeenGoneALongTimeName said...

Revoke or No Deal?
While its the wet dream showdown that everyone thinks they want, nobody does actually want it.

The Remainers dont want it because the electorate will crucify them.
The Leavers dont want it because it'd obviously be chaos and they'd get the blame.

What will happen is this -
1 - all votes fail, parliament cant agree on anything.
2 - May looks for extra time from EU but is given the option of 6 weeks or one full EU parliamentary term, including full membership and payments for the duration of any legislation passed. (note, NOT the duration of the parliament but the obligations entered into during that EU parliament period.)
3 - this is put to Commons and passes with Labour assent on condition of a general election being held.
4 - election held. Labour promises renegotiation and result put to 2nd Ref.
5 - Labour wins, renegoitates a Brexit Lite and puts it on a Lite-or-hard Brexit referendum, assuring a win.
6 - Scotland has a 2nd referendum conditional on UK result and votes to Remain.
7 - Border poll in NI.
8 - Soctland and NI vote to Leave UK.
9 - Rump of UK - England - goes Brexit Lite.

I still stand by my 2 previous predictions
- Hung Parliament last election (correct-ish)
- May called 2017 election in an attempt to Lose and throw the bomb to Corbyn. THIS was her biggest failure.

Watch it happen peeps.

Anonymous said...

Wonder what will be on the EU shopping list?


EU elections?

Contributions to their no-deal costs so far?

Could be a very expensive delay.

Anonymous said...

"The Leavers don't want it because it'd obviously be chaos and they'd get the blame."

Why do you think it will be chaos ? It will be chaos only if the British civil servants deliberately make it chaotic.

I think "No Deal" will work fine.

Don Cox

Jan said...

Christopher Meyer (former US ambassador) had it right this am on the Today prog saying any of the other PMs he worked with would have said "enough is enough, I've tried my best and parliament won't pass the WA so we're leaving on 29th March".

Someone is going to lose patience and it won't be Treason May. Maybe it will be the SNP; they're pretty pissed off.

Those parliamentarians had better hope it isn't the electorate or there will be blood on the streets......

Weekend Yachtsman said...

Delay is possible only if the EU27 all agree - how likely is that?

Unilateral revocation of Article 50, on the other hand, has already been cleared by the top EU court as a legally and procedurally acceptable.

Just sayin'...

Sobers said...

I'm still saying WTO on the 29th, because there's no majority in the HoC to actually plunge the knife into Brexit in the open. No-one wants to be the ones who do it, and incur the wrath of the 17.4m. So for all the preening and posturing, and indicative votes, there won't be the votes to change the existing legal position before the 29th, and even if there is the EU have to agree to an extension, which is unlikely in the absence of any new UK position that commands a majority in the HoC.