Wednesday 10 April 2019

So, Revoking Article 50 by Friday now best bet?

I am still sticking by my prediction. Incompetent May is touring Europe today trying to do, er, nothing to promote Brexit. Instead Parliament has 'voted' to have no deal off the table. So that leaves either a deal, which they are not about to vote on and May is busy not promoting or revoking Article 50 and cancelling Brexit.

Revoke by Friday must be over 50% possibility. It is just so much cleaner than another delay and another neverendum, which for some odd reason remainiacs think they will win instead of lose handsomely. Perhaps, if we have a delay and European elections the remainers will be cautioned by the huge numbers of pro-Brexit MEP's elected - enough that they conjure a reason to revoke in parliament without the bile of another referendum.

Anyway, I would like to say we will soon see, but as we all know, can-kicking is the Europe's highest and most advanced form of artistic expressions, so I won't hold my breath.


patently said...

Only if the EU27 refuse her request for an extension. Then I'd say it's 99% certain she will revoke - probably at the last minute and after every business in the land has put its No-Deal contingency plans into effect.

Mark Wadsworth said...

You might be right.

E-K said...

My Time Sausage Theory has finally been taken up by the scientists. It's only taken me twelve years to get through to the thick bastards.

As for Brexit being cancelled.

I gave you the Frederick Forsyth link a couple of weeks ago. There are 7 civil servants holed up in number 10 and their plan is to stop the Art 50 withdrawal.

We are not leaving the EU.

The Tory Party has gone rogue.

E-K said...

Good news is that you can get divorced easier than you can get out of a mobile phone contract.

The very thing causing May's knife crime wave (absent fathering) is the thing she wants to cause more of - and discrimination against white boys ... and more unisex toilets in which women have to sit on wet seats and blokes wait outside for ages while someone does their make-up.

APL said...

E-K: "The very thing causing May's knife crime wave "

Beg to differ E-K. Theresa May as home secretary was the very thing that caused the knife crime wave.

The cause frequently does not have an instantaneous effect, it takes a while, and while Knut is Mayor of London and hell bent on halalifying the advertising on the London Underground, has something to do with it, he's just a mendacious bit player.

APL said...

Ah, here it is. The manifold benefits of diversity.

andrew said...


my divorce was finalised back in 92.
In 2017 my brother in law got out of his Vodafone mobile contract.

I can indeed confirm that it is harder to cease a mobile contract than it is to get divorced,
but can add to the sum of knowledge by stating that that is not a new thing.

Y Draig Goch said...

I'm not completely convinced about the revoke option. I've been assuming that the most likely outcome is a long extension in the hope that "something will turn up".

The problem with revoke is that it leaves the referendum result on record as the last word from the British people. We voted out. Every future EU step will be in the shadow of the fact that the British already said no - it was only the politicians that bottled it.

Plus it leaves the door very slightly open to a future government quietly making preparations for a no-deal exit (like May should have done) and then bailing out for real just at the moment that Germany goes into recession, Italy goes bust, Greece is over-run, Spain dis-integrates and Hungarian border guards start shooting migrants who won't listen to "go away".

I think they want and need a second referendum to erase the first and the problem is how to ensure the "right" result.

Lord Blagger said...

The irony of MPs discussing making divorce easier, whilst trying to force the UK to remain wedded to the EU is lost on them.

You haven't factored in what the rank and file Tories think of May. That they are starting to deselect the anti democratic liars in Westminster can be taken two ways.

Either these MPs with a fascist tendency say, to hell with it, I'm going to be kicked out, I will carry on regardless, or they view, hmmm, push comes to shove, I don't want to face the cold reality of a P45. Lets get rid of May instead.

1922 say you need to resign
ERG obviously.
If the cabinet say she has to go, or she can't get people to join the cabinet, then its game over.

Remainiac said...

On the very last day of the Referendum campaign (while campaigning for Remain) I have a robust discussion with a Leaver who was incandescent that I was campaigning to stay. In a throwaway comment, I said "We're staying as TM is a Remainer"

Last year with a Remainer group I toured the EU to talk to legal experts, diplomats and MEPs. They made three comments.

The first was that the Irish issue would be a stumbling block. The second was that the EU would protect itself from a large swashbuckling economy on its doorstep. The third is that A50 could be revoked without sanction at the 11th hour - which was expected to happen.

Clearly it was all wishful thinking by us Remainiacs

Mark Wadsworth said...

@YDG: "I think they want and need a second referendum to erase the first and the problem is how to ensure the "right" result."

I've been saying that since the morning the result was announced.

jim said...

Give a fool enough rope....

If we get an extension we will likely take it. Mrs May will then quit and we can have fun while the Tories decide which idiot takes the job. Then we repeat the tiresome roundabout of no decision until the end of the EU's extension.

If the EU has any sense they will define a cut off date in a year, no ifs, no buts. That will give the No-Dealers a target with which to threaten the WA supporters and the Re-Referendumers. Meanwhile it gives the EU time to prepare for no-deal and also time for companies to implement their get-out plans.

Early 2021 will be uncomfortably close to the next UK election, but the good thing is that the Treasury can hold off the Brexit Leave effect until the election is over. So with luck we won't get a Corbyn govt, but be careful what you wish for Tories.

Give a fool enough rope.....

CityUnslicker said...

Remainiac - Hat off to you. It has come to pass as you have predicted.

Jim - The Tories are dying, 300 years of history thrown away in squabbling and betrayal. Labour only surviving because opposition is so much easier than Governing. Maybe the Tories will recover, but it is not looking good from here.

E-K said...

I predicted it before Remainiac and I'm a leaver !

As soon as May was appointed I told you all here Brexit was dead. (Remainiac isn't getting remain either - he's getting HARD remain. Enjoy.)

jim said...

Well you are right CityUnslicker, the Tories are dying and Labour is headed the same way.

Let us get to the nub of our problems. Take a cold hard look at the situation of our smallish Western economies. We face intense competition from Asia, a competition that will only intensify. We have a hard job finding work or what looks like work for a good proportion of our population. We are fed a mantra that 'more education' will fix our problems. I fear that mass education on a sufficient scale is completely unaffordable both in money terms and in popular expectation terms.

Our present strategy of cutting real per-head expenditure is semi-sensible if you take a cynical view. We are already forming a well divided society based on housing cost. The good schools are where the pricey houses are. We are however failing to pursue the logical extension of our real policy - keeping those excluded out of the way and behaving themselves.

If we are to succeed economically with high-tech and fancy services we will probably have to specialise. This implies streaming education and probably streaming public housing. If made overt this would result in much screaming and raving from the do-gooders. As things stand we are unlikely to follow the implications of our real economic situation, we will go forward in some half-arsed way. Labour or Tory - hardly matters.

Jan said...

I've given up on "leave" and am looking forward to some fun and games with the elections for MEPs and what all the elected "leavers" will do in the European Parliament. What's the betting we will have to watch any shenanigans on RT rather than the BBC?

Anonymous said...

Jim: "We have a hard job finding work or what looks like work for a good proportion of our population."

And the solution to that is ..... immigration.

Note: Most of the unskilled jobs will be automated within 10 years.

So, we clearly need a lot of unskilled violent individuals with a grudge.

Anonymous said...

Remainiac - why were you even thinking about TM on the last day of the R campaign - she wasn't PM !!!

I call BS

Unknown said...

if they want blood on the streets THEN TRY REVOKING IT ANS SEE WHAT HAPPENS

Mark Wadsworth said...

I've come back to gloat.