Thursday 16 January 2020

So long and thanks for all the fish

The end of our EU membership is upon us and the sangfroid from watching the dying embers of remoanerism try and block an EU exit celebration in London is a delightful sight to behold. This is what has become of all that money being spent on People's Vote, the marches, the Qusilings trips to Brussels - reduced to trying to stop a party in Trafalgar Square. Oh, the deep joy.

However, the Quislings like Blair are I can see now focused on trying to force a Hard Brexit. Blair has been advising Macron on the weak points politically in Brois' strategy with a view to forcing a no deal and thence re-launching their Rejoin campaing immidiately.

None of this is very subtle so no doubt Cummings has war-gamed the strategy but the outlines are clear, firstly for the EU to insist on the touchstone of fishing which they know will drive the right wing Brexiteers mad if we don't re-assert control of our fishing rights and then to complete a pincer movement with demanding full regulatorty compliance both now and in the future. Again by doing this it is barely leaving the EU.

However, I see some holes here. Firstly, regulatory compliance is actually OK as it allows for the low friction trade we want. So I am sure this will be bargained away at the last minute for a high price. The fishing is more troublesome but again there are a wealth of access compromises that can be made. The big win is ending free movement whilst retaing more or less ful access to the singel market and enabling our service setor to continue to sell into Europe.

From where the EU are starting this looks doable to me this year in outline. Of course Blair and the others will keep trying to push over Boris' red lines, but I do wonder whether in the end the EU would be crazy enough to torpedo a deal in the hope that the shock worked - they have form as they did this with Greece, but I am not sure that is an experience worht repeating.


Anonymous said...

Today in Parliament

"In response to a question from the shadow Home Office minister Afzal Khan, Cox said that the government was completely committed to remaining signed up to the European convention on human rights (ECHR) and that it would “never withdraw” from it in “any circumstance”."

Anonymous said...

"More than 2.45 million EU citizens have been told they can live and work in the UK after Brexit, while six “serious or persistent” criminals have been refused.

The number of applications submitted to the EU Settlement Scheme in December has hit more than 2.7 million (2,756,100), with 163,300 received in the last month, according to the Home Office.

Now 2,450,100 have been finalised, leaving a backlog of more than 300,000 still to process as applicants await a decision.

Of those dealt with in December, 55% (219,200) were granted permanent leave to remain in the country, called settled status, and 44% were granted pre-settled status – which means they have temporary leave to remain and would need to apply again for permanent permission at a later date."

I distinctly remember the government quoting a report in 2004 that said about 12,000 would come.

L fairfax said...

I do wonder if after we leave, the EU will think "Perhaps the CFP was a mistake".
Remain could have won if
a) We stopped paying EU citizens to come here (i.e. giving them free housing)
b)the CFP had been different.

Instead remain decided to call everyone unhappy with the EU racist - good move.

E-K said...

+ 1 L Fairfax.

They haven't learned.

andrew said...

LF +1

Noticed that this is part of trump's genius.
When hillary called his supporters 'deplorables' she lost.
Calling voters who dont support you names is a guaranteed losing move (left wing, looking at you)
Trump has moved this on to the next level.
All those rallies in the dust belt are not a waste. He is saying 'i am you and if an opposition politician is nasty to me that means they are being nasty to you'

Charlie said...

...and this is why Trump will win a second term.

That his opposition still haven't learned that they need to win over people who voted for Trump last time shows how dim they are.

AndrewZ said...

No Deal wouldn't help the Rejoiners. Some people would blame the Tories, some would blame the EU and some would blame both, so it wouldn't have any decisive effect on public opinion. It would only deepen the existing divisions. But the vast majority of people, including a majority of those who voted to remain, would see any attempt to return to the EU at the first sign of trouble as an intolerable national humiliation. It would be announcing to the world that Britain was no longer capable of being a self-governing nation. Many people would also see it as the elite looking for any pretext to reverse Brexit. Any politician who was remotely serious about gaining or retaining power would immediately recognise that there were far more votes in opposing "Rejoin" than supporting it.

Anonymous said...

Interesting comment from Javid about a "deal". It's just the sort of clarity that will be welcomed by business as it confirms what we already knew.

The deal is a blank sheet of paper. What goes on it will be the perceived interests of both parties. Javid will be putting the UK interests down as those elements that have been lobbied for the last three years.

So up and down the country, tactical and strategic plans will be identifying assets to be sold, assets to be relocated to the EU and assets to acquired either in the UK or elsewhere.

There is going to be a significant pivot to the economic life of the country with winners (those with the money/information) and losers (those who have a job but won't in the future)

There will be a shock at the individual level but given the size of the UK economy, it can take it.

Rather than worry about the EU, I'm taking a ruler over my SIPP to see what I need to dump. I'd recommend everyone do the same.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon - sensible comments there. Some big changes will happen in the economy thanks to brexit as it will create winnners and losers.