Friday 11 September 2020

Brexit mess, part 998

 And so it continues. 

The divorce of the UK from the EU is getting very messy. I am concerned the Brexiteers believed their own hype when they were saying things like easiest deal in history. 

The EU were always going to make this painful, to make sure no one else followed us out of the door. The issue for the UK being even when optimistic brexiteers like Michael Gove took over planning, they soon realised no-deal was an economic disaster in the making and the kind of economic self-harm no good government could ever sign up to. 

The EU know this too, which is why at the end of the day it was always going to be a very tough negotiation. 

The latest tactics, trying to unilaterally undo the withdrawal agreement in small parts, really is not cricket. The EU have spotted yet another chance to grandstand and make out how they are the injured party when in fact they are being equally, if not more, intransigent than the UK. 

Overall, what a mess. I never wanted a no deal brexit, together with Covid-19 it will be a economic bloodbath for the UK if this comes to pass in January. 

Boris needs to earn his corn here, in reality he can sign any deal with an 80-seat majority and as the leader of brexit if he says it is the right choice most Brexiteers will go along with him. But actually letting the country fall into a no-deal scenario will be the end of him and with it any right-wing Government at the next election. Instead, Remainer leader Starmer will be banging the drum for rejoin at that point.

An unending political mess awaits if Boris cannot lead. 


Lord Blagger said...

WTO is an easy deal. It's done. Dusted. Oven ready.
The current mess shows just what governments have done. Created a mess that they have tied themselves up in knots.

It needs a clean break. It needs an Alexander to do to the right and simple thing.

Lord Blagger said...

Lets look at the upside.

2T GDP, 30% of that is exports, 40% of those to the EU, at trade weighted average tariffs of 3.3%

Cost 7.92 bn

Cost of the EU this year, 18.5 bn

Food. Independent puts the cost of being in the EU at 17% of food bills. They are europhiles. Lets get that benefit.

Regulation. EU put the costs at 6% of GDP, and for each £ saved, a payback of £2.70 in economic activity. These are EU numbers

Lets axe 50% of EU regulations and get a 160 bn bonus. Even if you pick another percentage number, its a massive win. This is behind the EU's level playing field.

For example, van der Leyan every month predicts and signs off on interest rates in 200 years time.

Migration. Out of the WB we can cap welfare payments for EU nationals. Why should the UK commit to welfare for life for EU migrants? There should be a cap. You should only be able to get welfare for a year, bar disabilities that have arisen when in the UK

Nick Drew said...

Does today's trade deal w. Japan make anyone more optimistic?

Lord Blagger said...

Nick. Its interesting to compare that deal fro £29 bn, 3.5 months to agree with the EU's deal with the US

That deal was for $100 million of trade one way, $160 million the other, and took 20 years to agree.

The Eurocrat costs on that will have exceeded the cost of the tariffs at 3.3% on average.

I would expect deals done quickly with Aus, NZ, South Korea. Similarly with the
Mercosur block.

Canada is playing games, and the US will sign too. It's in their interest. ie. win-win deals.

The EU still demands win-lose deals.

The more we sign, the higher the pressure and the more people in the EU start questioning why the EU is roasting them

Nick Drew said...

another problem will be India

they are always looking for gigantic allocations of "work permits" for their people to go abroad (i.e. they want to be shot of all their subsistence farmers)

Lord Blagger said...

Migration should be a simple test.

1. No criminals - unlike now
2. No discrimination - unlike now with different rules for statistically white EU nationals
3. Net contributors only

Very simple very clear. if you don't pay enough tax, you can't come or stay. If you commit a crime, you are deported and barred.

If those had been the rules, there wouldn't be the complaints.

How many Indians will be paying more than 12k a year in tax? Each? Even that ignores the pension debts.

AndrewZ said...

If Johnson can get any deal through Parliament, what does he actually want? His career to date suggests that all he really wants is personal glory. But he is notorious for not bothering with detail so he needs someone else to provide a plan to actually deliver it. It then becomes a question of whose plan he adopts.

It currently looks as if the “No Deal” faction has convinced him that they have the path to glory. If so, Johnson will be eagerly awaiting the failure of the talks to get his Churchill moment as the steadfast leader defying foreign aggression.

Alternatively, he may be assuming that a crisis isn’t really possible because in the end everything can always be fudged, because that’s how it works in domestic politics. That would explain the government's cavalier attitude to what the text of the WA actually says and whether it is enforced. If you assume that any difficulties can always be made to disappear with fudge and spin then it simply doesn't matter.

Don Cox said...

If the EU decides to be awkward, smuggling will become very profitable.

Goods as well as people.

Don Cox

Elby the Beserk said...

It would seem to me that with the current economic chaos, supply line shambles and such like, that now is the time for No Deal if any. Given that the EU bends and breaks its own rules whenever it needs to - tough. So can we. International "law" is not "law" as in a national legal system. It's a set of rules countries observe. When it suits them.

Anonymous said...

Given that the EU bends and breaks its own rules whenever it needs to - tough.

You have to read this particular wheeze alongside the other attempt to reduce judicial scrutiny of ministers. In effect putting the government above the law and parliament.

Full on pirate mode and an exercise if seeing what they can get away with.

Very interesting from the sidelines. Wonder who thinks they will be powerful enough to curtail it.