Tuesday, 29 December 2020

2020 - Prediction results

 So here are what our post on predictions at the end of 2019 said:


"For the first time in 13 years of this competition I have reviewed the answers and no one was even close. My cat could have done better.

I guess this anecdotally suggests that 2019 was the most crazy year yet - even weirder than the 2010 and 2009 years of the financial crash.

Only gridbot predicted an election but it produced a hard brexit and a hung parliament. Nick Drew did well to suggest there would be a centrist party but it did not even survive the year out to qualify for the final.

My own predictions of May to survive and the remainders to win was fortunately 100% wrong.

Maybe 2020 will see the beginning of a return to normality and some more predictable events unfolding. Or perhaps the zeitgeist of the end of the decade will continue with unknown terrors to come."



Uncanny, perhaps, but the later efforts at prediction for 2020 were also some way off the rather over-interesting events that took place this year. Suffice to say no one was close on the FTSE prediction, nobody cares about tax rates or energy usage levels, the pandemic having seen of both quite easily. 

Our dearly departed friend, Raedwald, at least predicted that Keir Starmer would become leader. Anonymous predicted I would not improve my use of spell check, but thanks to Google chrome that  was found untrue. 

So a win for Raedwald posthumously which feels fitting. 

I will be thinking hard for relevant questions for 2020, this year proving a little more challenging than normal. I think after Brexit and Covid, we deserve a more normal year next year, but perhaps that is itself wishful thinking!

15 comments:

Unknown said...

Whatever can happen will happen, in one future or another. So detailed predictions are a matter of "Pick your future".

So my only serious prediction is that human nature won't change. I don't expect an outbreak of universal peace and love.

Trump was the first President since WWII not to start a war. Will Biden be as peaceful as Trump ? Unlikely, but not impossible.

Variants of the Covid virus will still be causing much trouble next year.

Don Cox

Lord Blagger said...

1. Biden will start a war
2. Biden will not be president in 4 years time
3. Harris will be president
4. Lock down persists until May
5. Major down turn in the economy
6. BBC gets funded out of tax not license fee
7. Greece will go bust - again
8. State pension will be cut again
9. Taxes will rise and services will be cut
10. More austerity in other words

dearieme said...

A new pandemic will appear before the old one is finished.

Lord Blagger said...

We're already on pandemic 2.
The emperor no clothes and the boy who cried wolf keep plaguing me,

Old BE said...

2021

Major Euro crisis. Default by Italy or France. (I know this is an annual prediction but it has to come true sooner or later).

Post-Brexit, Post-Covid Bounceback Boom in the UK. Inflation to creep up towards 5%.

Boris to retire gracefully on his own terms. First Asian PM.

UK to make provisional "lite" free trade arrangements with USA, Australia, New Zealand.

andrew said...

Good questions on 31 dec 21

Who will be pm
Level of the ftas
Will china have invaded taiwan
Will the uk be in lockdown
Length of the lorry queue in dover
Will there be indyref 2 in 22

Anoneumouse said...

Civil War in the USA within 6 months.

Graeme said...

Lockdown lasts until June
China invades Taiwan
Hungary is forced out of the EU
Poland has a change of PM at EU behest (they did it to Italy, remember)
Sturgeon resigns
Ftse grows 3% over the year
Biden drops sanctions on Iran
Saudi squeezes oil production and Biden u-turns on fracking
Crossrail goes into operation

Old BE said...

Lol @ Crossrail

Anonymous said...

My crystal ball has been cloudier than the Yorkshire skies of late, but here goes:

1) Euro-crisis - the post-covid cheer will bring in chill winds as the battle between north and south Euro nation kicks up again. Germany, losing influence to France, will do something to keep its electorate happy, but wound the euro itself. Maybe not mortally, but it'll be busy telling the world it's sword-arm hasn't been cut off whilst spurting blood everywhere from the stump.

2) EU-crisis - the eastern states will causes more kerfuffles. A reckoning between the Visigrads and the rest of the EU is inevitable, and the longer the EU puts it off, the more painful it'll be.

3) China will piss off enough neighbours to find itself having several border "misunderstandings" at the same time, and will probably do something unwise.

4) Trump won't piss off gracefully, he'll stick around and keep up with laying with dogs until one of the fleas does something terrorist-y and he discovers just how badly you can get burned playing with the kind of fire white nationalists bring to the table.

5) The economy will bounce back pretty well, and there'll be some debt forgiveness magic that will see the UK debt drop. We owe around a quarter of it to ourselves, so I'm expecting some some tapping of a hat with a wand and it magically disappearing to neatly take care of any plans Starmer has on condemning economic governance.

6) The US using ME proxies to wage war against Iran.

Graeme said...

I forgot to mention overtures from Eire about joining a sterling zone

Nick Drew said...

Graeme, back in 2016 I said May ought to come up with a plan for exactly that which would be so atractive to the Irish, it'd make them think twice about their euro-addiction

Old BE said...

When the Euro crashes, the heavily UK-involved Irish economy will need a sensible means of exchange :)

Lord Blagger said...

We owe around a quarter of it to ourselves,
=======
2 Trillion in borrowing
14 Trillion in off the book pension debts.

Are you suggesting a massive cut in pensions?

E-K said...

Well I'm glad I do not do astrology for a living:

The Sun, New Year's Eve 2019 prediction for the year ahead

Pisces

In 2020 you will meet lots of new people and travel far and wide and explore exotic destinations.