Monday 7 December 2020

Deal or No Deal

Here we are again, another round of latre night, over the weekend, Pret-eating, high stress negotiations. You would have thought we had become quite skilled at these given they have been a constant stream for nearly 4 years now. 

But from what I can see, no, no progress has been made. The whole point of negotiaitons is to, err, negotiate. if you just turn up with a list of red lines which can't be crossed, then not much will ever be achieved. 

The original concept is that you have some giveaways, some core red lines and somethings you will only give up in order to close a deal and also if the other side gives something back. That way you get a good deal. 

With the EU, they seem to have very firm lines, this is ahuge drawback of having to agree them with 27 in the first place, it makes them a very inflexible negotiator which is a big risk to ever dealing with the EU. I think the EU makes them seem it is powerful, but in fact it just shows the whole thing for the ponderous animal that it is. 

For the UK side, a no deal is disastrous and represents and outcome only the most crazed anti-EU people ever wanted. Even Farage and his pals all thought we would get a deal of some sort. If it comes to leaving the EU with no deal it is a huge failure of UK statecraft. Why is there no back up plan for a Norway or Swiss light, or even an Australian type deal? The UK has staked its economic future on an all-or-nothing free trade deal with the EU. Frankly, it has been a terrible strategy for a while, whislt it played well in a 2019 election, it has been a waste of another year to pursue this single strategy. 

Of course, if it works then many will say what a great plan and team we have, however, to be less than 50/50 the day before the deadline is not good at all. 


david morris said...

All "negotiations " undertaken by the EU always, ALWAYS, get sorted in the last minute of the last hour of the last day. This won't be any different. Having said that, the very evident glee shown by the EU team when they thought they'd backed May into a corner is an indication of the mindset involved.
This ain't no negotiation, bro. It's a punishment beating, administered to ensure other countries don't attempt to leave the EUs embrace.

The huge mistake - made intentionally by May - was to initially engage in the charade....

decnine said...

The Tango is a dance for two.

Polidorisghost said...

Well maybe I am a man of the crazy sort
I will accept a no deal brexit in preference to a "deal" agreed by our side, because I have no confidence in Boris or his government.
In the long term our future depends on how we run our own affairs, rather than on what "arrangements" we stitch up with an EU that appears to be fundamentally hostile.

Jan said...

I agree with Polidorisghost. In the long run we will be better off without that ponderous animal on our backs dragging us down. We will be free to trade with the rest of the world and if the EU don't like it....tough. They will be the losers.

Every "negotiation" they are involved in (for much longer than 4 years) involves overnight sessions with a breakthrough at the last minute....from Margaret Thatcher onwards I seem to remember. They've never appreciated our inclusion judging by the way they treated the UK.

It's preposterous they want to keep most of the UK fish and want a 10 year phase after we've order to soften the blow??

Anonymous said...

A no deal now can't mean there won't ever be deals in the future.

Once reality has set in for the German car manufacturers of the new increased costs of selling cars in the UK, I can't imagine they'll be sitting around doing nothing. There must still be maximum pressure going to be put on the EU for various deals to be made.

Does a big all encompassing deal have to be made or can we have lots of small deals instead?

Maybe I'm being optimistic,but surely enough smaller deals can be agreed to minimise impacts in the most impacted areas but small enough that the EU/UK can save face and both claim victory?

Nick Drew said...

And the year started so well, with the Greenwich speech.

andrew said...

A deal is out there.

- a 10 year transition - may be long but it has an end date
- a non-eu panel for judging state subsidies - how about the WTO?
- something similar for environmental and social regs

BlokeInBrum said...

I seem to remember part of the Withdrawal Agreement was that both parties were meant to negotiate in good faith.

The EU never had the intent of negotiating anything that didn't assume us being in the prone position in order to take a good rodgering.

There never should have been this protracted last minute blathering that is happening right now. All it means is that desperate politicos are going to stitch us up just so they can say that they have got an agreement.

Like many here, I believe there is more to this than purely economic self interest.
And if it means that we are poorer in the future, but freer, I will settle for that.

Sadly, Boris and the Conservative Party have succeeded in making us both poorer and less free without even achieving Brexit.

Don Cox said...

A ten year "transition" would be followed by a twenty year "transition", and then a hundred year one.

There have been more than enough years of transition already.

Don Cox

dearieme said...

We are boycotting as much EU produce as we reasonably can; French wines, in particular, will no longer grace our wine racks.

No German cars, of course - not that we ever have. Unreliable, overpriced, lack passenger room, and the spares cost the earth - what sort of bozo buys them? Small, insecure, overpaid people?

Anonymous said...

Of course, you are the country that fought the Hundred Years’ War...

Anonymous said...

No deal is nailed on for the simple reason Boris is in charge.

He dislikes Parliament and being challenged. Any deal taken to Parliament would mean all sides would attempt to reject it as either being too generous or not enough.

Simpler for the prevaricator-in-chief not to have anything to take to MPs and back benchers. So no deal by default.

Anonymous said...

Anon 5:14 - I hope you're right.

It's been abundantly clear right from the start that only "deal" the EU will agree to is one that keeps up firmly under their thumb.

So no deal it has to be.

It'll tough - they'll make sure it's as tough as they can - but freedom has always had its price.

Bring it on.