Deal or No Deal

Here we are again, another round of latre night, over the weekend, Pret-eating, high stress negotiations. You would have thought we had become quite skilled at these given they have been a constant stream for nearly 4 years now. 

But from what I can see, no, no progress has been made. The whole point of negotiaitons is to, err, negotiate. if you just turn up with a list of red lines which can't be crossed, then not much will ever be achieved. 

The original concept is that you have some giveaways, some core red lines and somethings you will only give up in order to close a deal and also if the other side gives something back. That way you get a good deal. 

With the EU, they seem to have very firm lines, this is ahuge drawback of having to agree them with 27 in the first place, it makes them a very inflexible negotiator which is a big risk to ever dealing with the EU. I think the EU makes them seem it is powerful, but in fact it just shows the whole thing for the ponderous animal that it is. 

For the UK side, a no deal is disastrous and represents and outcome only the most crazed anti-EU people ever wanted. Even Farage and his pals all thought we would get a deal of some sort. If it comes to leaving the EU with no deal it is a huge failure of UK statecraft. Why is there no back up plan for a Norway or Swiss light, or even an Australian type deal? The UK has staked its economic future on an all-or-nothing free trade deal with the EU. Frankly, it has been a terrible strategy for a while, whislt it played well in a 2019 election, it has been a waste of another year to pursue this single strategy. 

Of course, if it works then many will say what a great plan and team we have, however, to be less than 50/50 the day before the deadline is not good at all. 

Brexit bites back

Really not very convinced by Boris' new strategy:

1. Win Election Getting Brexit done - big tick
2. Hold immiediate vote on Withdrawal Agreement - big tick
3. Legislate to make sure we leave come what may Decemner 2020 - err...

Why point 3? It is of course the Cummings strategy, set the scene so those pesky Europeans are focred to do a deal in a timeframe of our choosing - stop them dominating the battlefield like they did with sad old Theresa.

However, I am only partially convinced, as it sets up another round of remainer remoaning for the middle of next year and beyond. It will be hard to do a swift deal with the EU as there are many trade-off's to be considered.

Firstly, do we really want free movement or not. If not then many roads are closed, if we want a full Free Trade Association only this is compatible, but with much ECJ oversight and a distinct limit to the point our own trade deals with the US, Canada etc.

With much potential disagreement in Westminster and Brussels, we could well face another false cliff edge in December 2020.

For me, the issue is  no longer political - a great victory for Leave has ended that. For the economy though we are crying out for certainty, as was seen by the fall in the Pound last week when Boris announced this plan.

On balance, there was no need for it - it is pure showmanship with a potential downside. The battlefield was already won and this is a small mis-step.



Merry Xmas everyone, our light touch service may become even lighter touch this week and next!

Top Trump's for UK

Excellent analysis by Andrew Lilico on the likelihood of a Trump deal with the UK.


Carrying on from yesterday's discussion, it is really going to upset the Left when we get a Trump deal. Moreover, it is also really going to upset the EU as this will be an example of the UK benefitting from Brexit.


Also, Nicola Sturgeon will be in full force for a whole year about not doing a deal with the Orange One, talking her own book for the same reasons.


There are only 2 potential downsides:


1 - Trump makes a tough negotiator and maybe the deal in services won't be so good, he will want healthcare in it and that will send the UK with our NHS touchstone into meltdown.


2- The EU will hate us so much they wont negotiate on Article 50 and so we will have a tough tie re-creating our space in the world from 2019 onwards which will be a slight drag on the economy and altogether unnecessary.


At least the above two will be mutually exclusive.