Wednesday 13 January 2021

Seeing the future in the markets?

At the time of writing the FTSE100 is off around 2% on the day, a small blip but still well up in the beginning of the year.

Most years, after a Santa rally to get their bonus' in, fund managers re-allocate their funds in January to safer plays adn let the market drift whilst thier benchamrks for the year are set. 

All very old school. 

This year is interesting, there is a huge race on in the UK to vaccinate as many people as possible before Covid takes too higher toll - on people mainly but also on the economy, a lot of which remains closed.

To me, the FTSE at 6700 odd seems like a very positive readout given the economic damage wrought by Covid. The market investors must seem to think the vaccine race will be won in short order and some normality begin to return. Then again, they can soon turn down, but it is an interesting indicator to watch - more insightful than Twitter...


27 comments:

david morris said...

There is insight on twitter ?

Who knew ??

Anonymous said...

I see bitcoin has hiccupped.

CityUnslicker said...

bitcoin v toppy, retrace always likely, the big hit will come when Tesla and FAANG's go pop too.

andrew said...

Faangs unlikely to go pop, maybe a bit of a deflate.
It is things like zoom and an online advert broker capitalised at 45bn (forgot name) that will pop.

At times like this i check they have a solid fcf both historic and and projected and a good moat for the future.

Thud said...

biden will start the magic money printing in 2 weeks time, shares go up until, well until the next 'thing'.

PushingTheBoundaries said...

Definitions please:
FAANGS?
FCF?
"...good moat for the future" er, basically a buffer to protect against downturns?

TIA

Anonymous said...

Another definition for you, PTB:

GOOGLE

Anonymous said...

According to the NHS leaflet which vaccinatees are given, “two doses will reduce your chances of becoming seriously ill“, but “we do not yet know whether it will stop you from catching and passing on the virus“, so, you still need to “practice social distancing, wear a mask, was your hands carefully and frequently“.

If when all the elderly and those who come into contact with them have been vaccinated, we still need to avoid each other, that’s not exactly the freedom which was waved in front of us.

Sell !

Matt said...

@ Anonymous

Sell and put your money where? Under the mattress? Gold? Bitcoin? For better or worse, a share of a fairly decent business is more likely to retain some value.

No REITs, FAANGs for a while (until they go pop) - food (supply), drugs, alcohol and cigarettes are my recommendation.

Anonymous said...

Wot, for personal consumption Matt?

Matt said...

@ Anonymous

LOL - investments. However, it wouldn't be the worst thing to have a physical stash of those things for when the "zombie apocalypse" hits.

dearieme said...

" that’s not exactly the freedom which was waved in front of us": nobody waved in front of you the proposition that the vaccines stop transmission of the virus.

Maybe it'll turn out that they do; maybe not.

jim said...

Healthcare and hospitals should do well. The UK may well see that trimming beds/1000 down to 1.8 was not such a smart idea. Limits political options come the next wave - in 60 year's time. A bit more, but not too much.

The Chinese seem to have many useful ideas - keep people housed in huge tower blocks - all the better to lock them in. Then facial recognition and social credit - coming to a magistrates court near you. Western democratic traditions are too slow and too expensive - multi week trials? seems crazy. Big software and people tracking might make mass control a lot cheaper and quicker.

Education seems in need of a rethink. The little toerags don't want to sit in front of a laptop doing Khan Academy. Certainly does not work in a one room rathole flat without a major parental investment. The previous arrangement was only marginally successful. Perhaps send them all to boarding school, by the thousands. Select the best, send the rest home/work at 14. Run by Serco etc.

Old BE said...

On bitcoin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55658942

Old BE said...

Jim let’s be honest: the Soviets had a much more elitist education system than Eton and Winchester ever achieved. The French, too. For some reason British lefties want all to fail equally badly.

Timbo614 said...

@Anonymous
Bitcoin has blown into a crisp packet for a few hours and recovered from its hiccups :)

andrew said...

I am sure someone will write a paper on the radically deflationary nature of btc.
If you hide gold and then die, it can be found by others.
If you hide btc and then die, it is gone.
The really big holders will have professional safeguards but the tiddlers wont. Every year a few btc will "die".

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Old BE said...

Andrew - or you throw several million $ in the bin like the guy in Wales

jim said...

Levelling up is the mantra. No one is saying 'close down Eton', just provide a bit of competition. Make it less worthwhile sending your kids there. Make the state option better, offering independence and self reliance. Not the kind that comes from working the County Lines.

But no worries, not going to happen. Quite the opposite, with no jobs and low growth and no money education will get cut back. We will be like Ireland in the '60s and '70s, a place to get out of asap. The snag is - where.

Thud said...

jim, I have the means to live prett much anywhere I please but I chose to live here as I feel its the best place for the future of my family, I believe in this country.

E-K said...

+1 Thud.

E-K said...

I've been on meds for a few weeks now. As well as being out of crazy shift patterns and getting proper sleep, by golly ! Those pills are working.

I have an unfamiliar feeling of contentment and calmness. The world is vivid and full of colour, rather than the sepia I'd been viewing it through for years.

Sorry I've been light on commenting...

... I was concerned I might start saying stupid things on this site and ruin my reputation.

andrew said...

Ek, your concerns are unfounded.

The btl commenters share that job roughly equally through a process of emergent self organisation.

E-K said...

I used the ellipses to connote self deprecation. I didn't mean to implicate the whole C@W tribe in that !!!

Timbo614 said...

@E-K Good to hear, welcome back to the colourful world of the forever optimistic!

@Andrew: Oi! You! Heckling at the back, no talk like that here we like our little blogging place just as it is, stupid or not.

E-K said...

Thanks Timbo.

Just thrashed wifey at scrabble and re-watched Titanic for the umpteenth time.

I still think a better ending would have been for the crusty Old Girl to have hocked one back and flobbed a bit of phlegm into the waves (as Jack Dawson had taught her} and kept the Heart of the Ocean for her family instead.

I'm sure that's what Jack Dawson would have wanted as he clung to dear life on a bit of driftwood.