Thursday 8 April 2021

A history of Ireland - 2031

 Who would have thought things could go so wrong so fast for the Emerald Isle. Ever since the accession to the EU and the free money topped with a low tax base has seen it the 'Celtic Tiger' grow very quickly since the 1980's.

The 2008 financial crash, felt so badly at the time, left only a small long-term scar in the property market. 

However, Brexit can be seen as the real game-changer. No fault of the Irish, but their pesky neighbours left the EU at the same time as the Corona virus brought the world leaders together, even more so than climate change action had already been doing. 

Initially, there were upsides to Brexit. Funds left the City of London for Dublin, which competed more with Luxembourg. The EU was generous in settlements with the Irish, keen not to have them follow the British example. 

But the destruction of the Good Friday accord, which both Dublin and Brussels had long felt was a key block to Brexit, brought a sea of woe to the islands. 

Nationalists demanded a border poll over what were minor points of economic friction caused by the new border that the EU insisted on to annoy the UK and to stick slavishly to it 'free market' policy. The border poll was close, but the appeal of the EU, distance from London and perceived benefits of being a united Isle won a close poll in 2024. 

The Unionists were of course furious. They found backing too in the UK, dismayed at what the Government had long told the public was a conspriacy to break-up the Country by the EU as revenge for Brexit. The long fall-out with the EU over the corona virus vaccines debacle lived long in the memory and the anti-EU English in particular were soon happy to gather in pubs and meeting halls to provide funds for their exiled Unionist bretheren. 

So for the late 2020's we saw the return of the troubles, this time fed by UK nationalists emboldening provo terror. The Irish state was not prepared and this time there was no British armed forces or MI6 to help defeat the uprising. Whilst returning to the UK remained unpopular, demands for statehood remain strong to this day and the rise of car-bombings in Dublin has turned the old republicans strongly against the protestants - division over identity is worse than ever and sectarianism lives again. 

Of course, all of this has been overshadowed by the new world order post Covid -19 which since 2022 has seen minimum tax rates force Ireland to raise its corporate taxes to 20%. Now the pressure is on to raise them further. With each rise, the fake HQ's in Dublin of the US tech companies shrink, moving to the UK or mainland Europe or even disappearing altogether with Tech corporates run from their San Francisco HQ's direct. The Irish financial services industry has suffered the same fate, losing business to London and Luxembourg. With less money to go around, the Celtic Tiger economy has stalled just as the money is needed for security and policing as never before. 

The EU has proven a false friend too. Ireland is one of the richer states, with Eastern Europe still suffering after the virus episode, there are no big allocations for Ireland. Indeed, many EU leaders are highly critical of the crackdown's in Belfast and Londonderry post the border poll and have put huge pressure on the Irish Government to back down.

But backdown to where? There is no sunny uplands to view from this point. The Island is one country but dis-united and the economy struggling and still cut off from Europe. The only way forward is to press on with integration, repressing the orangemen until time heals the wound of the border poll and the economy and people adjust to the falling GDP. Perhaps the emmigration now rampant again will see the worst of the troublemakers decamp to Glasgow and Liverpool.  


Sobers said...

The Republic wouldn't take the North even if they voted for unification. They can't afford it. Which is why the North wouldn't vote for unification, because the real question is not 'Should Ireland be one country', its 'Who pays for NI to live in the manner to which its become accustomed?' The UK is (foolishly perhaps) prepared to go on paying the North's bills if they choose to stay, thats a nailed on certainty. What the Republic could afford to pay is less certain. So people will vote with their wallets not their hearts.

It also begs the question - do the people of the South get a vote in unification? What if the North votes for it, but the costs become so great that the voters of the South rebel and say 'We're not paying for it'?

Anonymous said...

What if "we" got a vote? like someone said here about th Scots recently: a heave-ho-and-out-you-go vote.

CityUnslicker said...

Sinn Fein is the main oppo in Ireland. a border poll that passed would be like German re-Unifaction, the republic would love start with...

dearieme said...

None of the Remainers seemed inclined to protest at the EU's deliberate attempt to exploit the threat of terrorism during the Brexit negotiations.

Reason enough to refer to them as Quislings.

jim said...

A lack of strategic thinking meant we lost a good opportunity to get shot of NI back in the 70's. Instead we got into an expensive pointless willy-wagging contest. Now, as said, The South does not want The North and darling Arlene and friends would be lucky to get a job on a parish council if we cut NI loose. No wonder they are making a fuss. A cold wet expensive white elephant of a place. Definitely no Boris Burrow.

As things stand we are lumbered with the bill until a good opportunity or buyer comes along. Meanwhile pay more Arlenegeld to keep burning buses off the telly.

Anonymous said...

Not even God knows what the Northern Irish want.
Well they like a good old fight and riot. Stupid feckers.

Anonymous said...

"A cold wet expensive white elephant of a place."

It's actually a very beautiful place. First visit last summer and I was impressed by everything but the beer (keg is still king), and even that's better than in the Republic. Antrim Glens are magnificent and so is the coast. The flags will tell you its still pretty divided, you can usually tell the demographics from the flags. Police stations still retain their massive high fencing and cameras.

But everyone's pretty friendly though we never spoke of religion.

lilith said...

Great Grandpa (from Bellaghy, Derry, Protestant) in 1891 married a girl from Limerick (Catholic) and their families never spoke to them again (although Great Grandpa was sent Great Great Grandpa's Orange Sash upon his death.) Children all brought up Protestant. It's like the Middle East: Very hard for modern atheists to understand the depth of the hatred between people with the same God.

E-K said...

Another cost of lockdown.

A lot of pent up frustration. Republicans treated better by the police than Loyalists.

The police have previous for kid-gloving favoured groups (BLM/XR/Muslims) and battering the shit out of the rest.

And such disorder is rife throughout the EU right now - so let's not lay it on Brexit.

Get us out of lockdown PDQ

We have been guided by the most UNSCIENTIFIC socialist dictators who have never bothered to quantify the cost of Covid measures and have never been scrutinised for them.

Northern Ireland is yet another cost of the CV-19 panic.

It's time for the Nervous Nellies to stop being Nervous Nellies and demand their lives back.

E-K said...

If the vaccine works then we should be out of lockdown as soon as possible - ditch the road map.

If the vaccine doesn't work then we should be out of lockdown as soon as possible - otherwise house arrest and masks are forever.

I STILL don't know anyone who's died of CV-19.

lilith said...

I have decided to reply with "Take a risk!" when people say "Stay safe!"

Anonymous said...

OT but I see a US defence attache has paid a fraternal visit to Ukrainian troops in the Donbass.

"Butch lesbians will bolster Ukrainian morale and strike fear into Putin's crumbling Empire Of Evil"

Anonymous said...

And RIP Prince Philip - you did your duty, and found ways to enjoy it too! Would that we all had such an epitaph.

dearieme said...

"the depth of the hatred between people with the same God". The Protestant God is the traditional God - just one, but comes in three forms. It's a doctrine too mysterious for my understanding but clearly traces back to the earliest days of the Christian churches.

The Roman Catholics, however, also worship a Neolithic fertility goddess and attribute divine properties to a mere mortal. Those two additions to the three-in-one God do not trace back to the earliest days and seem, to Protestants, unChristian. And to me too, for what it's worth.

I doubt that the hatred is about that. It's the history, innit? And the trouble with Irish history is, according to my Irish grandfather, is that it's all lies.

andrew said...

"repressing the orangemen until time heals the wound of the border poll"

Good luck with that.

Go to a proper irish pub in london and after 9pm they start telling you that Oliver Cromwell is the most evil man in history and after 10pm ask you if you knew him. Cant remember much after that.

lilith said...

Dearieme, I think the original schism was weather Jesus-and-the-Divine in one vessel was whether it was like water mixed with wine (inseparable) or oil on wine (same vessel, separate entities) Heady stuff. No wonder people still fight.

Anonymous said...

I think the Arian "heresy" sounds perfectly reasonable - that God was One before sending Jesus to earth, not Three.

QE1 had the last, diplomatic word on transubstantiation

"Twas God the Word that spake it
He took the bread and brake it
And what the Word did make it
That I believe, and take it"

Either way, these debates, over which people were prepared to give up their lives, seem like models of stringent logic compared to a secular UK where "Diversity is a strength" is taught in every school and where proclaiming "It's OK To Be White" will attract condemnation from politicians plus a visit from the police.

"It's sickening and disgusting to know that people think like this."

dearieme said...

I was reading a biography of Thomas Cromwell. The author mentioned that his father was, at the time, thought to be of Irish descent. In which case Oliver Cromwell must be of Irish descent too. Who's going to tell them?

Nick Drew said...

@ QE1 had the last, diplomatic word on transubstantiation

nowadays the jesutical woke priesthood has another deliberately demented test for the faithful: they must repeat

self-identifying trans women ARE women

E-K said...


I highly recommend Ru Paul's Drag Race. It is genuinely LOL funny and poignant in many places. Possibly the most entertaining thing there is on TV because only these contestants are allowed to be naughty and politically incorrect in these times.

These guys (girls) are clearly women in spirit. In fact most of them are more womanly than women and I've had to kick myself several times whenever Cheryl Hole or Tia Coffee was on - in no way am I gay but genuine trans know how to caricature those traits that men find alluring. There is obviously some physical/psychological mismatching that nature has thrown up. I believe there is a genuine case for a new category of sexuality and that such people should be treated with kindness.

(Does one prosteth too loudly ???)


This is a tiny minority and as usual it is the Left wing, white, middle class who are prising our society apart with an ever more refined definition of what discrimination is.

It will never end.

I believe the ultimate is to stop men from being able to piss standing up. Urinals are in their sights as they are viewed as the ultimate in male advantage.

So - when (if) we ever get out of lockdown expect to be standing in a long queue at public events waiting for a cubicle in which the occupant (both male and female) is doing their make-up.

E-K said...

Urinals may be dispensed with under the excuse of social distancing.

As for religion - well, clearly it is unscientific and must adapt to survive, which it has had to do on many many occasions.

lilith said...

E-K Many transwomen loath Drag. It undermines the TWAW mantra.
I have watched most of Drag Race and the artists strike me as gay men who have found that projecting an exaggerated stereotypical female persona allows them to be confident and entertaining and never for a minute have I thought any of them "are" women (except for series 13 which has a transman ie. a woman) and possibly the previous season had one too.

I do think that women have evolved to be able to tell, even under a pile of make up, wigs and padding what sex a person is. It has something to do with threat and reproduction.

E-K said...

I don't think they are women either but something in between.

All of them have a feminine way about them even when not in drag.

And as for the TWAW mantra ?

When did we all forget how to have a right laugh at each other ?

E-K said...

...isn't it shameful that I care more for Drag Race than I do fooball/rugby ???

I am still a lad though, honest ! Up ladders 40 foot this week painting my house and dislocated my knee falling off a step. I managed to pop it right back in but if felt horrific when I did it. Luckily no permanent damage but nurse has recommended light duties and a course of anti inflammatories.

Now I have to contact the ladder hire company and have it picked up.

lilith said...

Ouch EK! I don't believe you were up a ladder at were practising your Death Drops...:)

E-K said...

Ha ha ha !

Only a Drag Race aficionado would know that.

They worry about heading the ball leading to early onset dementia... what about ball to head dementia ???

Daaahling ! It hurts so.

(Looking forward to meeting up with you and Ebly at a pub after lockdown. If it ever ends !!!)

lilith said...

Not comfy at all EK. (I have seen every season, and though I gave up on a couple of them, I really find it fun and awesome!) No problem with blokes in wigs, love many of them, it's just the TWAW mantra that makes me reach for my pitchfork and burning torch. TW are trans but it doesn't make them women. Otherwise you end up with burly heterosexual buggers with a paraphyllia in women's prisons because they say they are women, or running Girl Guide Camps, and more sexual violence in schools.

Lockdown seems to have pretty much ended in Somerset (and on the M25) and our Local opens tomorrow so not long I hope!

Anonymous said...


I STILL don't know anyone who's died of CV-19.

I do, a colleague died within about 10 days of catching it, she was terrified and the whole thing was horribly shocking.

In her 50's.